Safety or Run Out?

[CrownCityCorey]

So, further to Hal's question on the safety (hopefully you don't mind Hal me using your pic), would you try the runout or would you play the safety?

It depends slightly on the pocket size and opening angle, but on 98% of the equipment out there, I will shoot.

 

[The Grinder]

I almost agree with Cornerman

I'll take this idea even further to suggest that regardless of how you're playing and who you're up against, all of the other options (safeties and all) don't make things any easier for anyone.

So, even these lock-up safeties that are suggested have to be executed, and you have to get ball in hand. With ball-in-hand, there's no guarantee that the out is any easier. Without ball-in-hand, there's no guarantee that the out doesn't become more difficult.

Let's say we play the lock-up safety. The way the balls are positioned, I think to actually stick the ball to the 7-ball is asking a lot. So, I think this might be the position, anywhere up to, say, Point A:

Old Wei
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If your opponent gives you ball-in-hand (which too many people assume will happen), is the runout easier? I don't think so, even if you're a tall left-hander. The cueball path now is going the "wrong way," crossing the position zone through the narrower end or having to work farther down table to get "good." Does ball-in-hand truly make things easier for the out? These are the things to think about, IMO.

If you don't get ball-in-hand (which I'll say is about 50% for anyone given the realistic safety leave), then you have a probability to have either a much harder out or no out at all. Weighing these probabilities, and gauging the layout at hand vs. what could be, then shooting the out now looks better and better.



IMO, the goal should be that when you're left with this layout, you should be thinking "I can get out from here," rather than "what if I can't get out from here."

Fred

I know that I would like my chances of getting out from there even on a tight 9 footer. I also think that playing the safe against a strong player is likely to give you ball in hand more like 20% of the time unless you can freeze to the seven and cut off the one and two rail kicks and force them to go down table.
That being said I know that there are a lot of players that are not favored to get out from this position especially on tight equipment. I dont know what the best play is at that point because if you can't get out here then I am not sure that ball in hand (if you get it) is going to make the out automatic either.

 

[Black-Balled]

I'd play at least one safe before attempting the runout.

Black Cat

And your Captain would undoubtedly yell at you!!!

 

[SkippyFL]

And your Captain would undoubtedly yell at you!!!

That just made my day!!! Best line ever.

 

[jjinfla]

I would go for the runout mainly because the 6 is not that difficult of a shot and the CB goes two rails for excellent position on the 7. And if I miss the 6 then he will most likely be hooked anyway.

Opportunities like this do not come along very often. Might as well take them when you can.

Jake

 

[Colin Colenso]

Fred made some good points.

I agree, this is a go for it situation.

If you think you're good enough to go out with ball in hand after a snooker on the 6, you ought to be good enough to make that 6 ball 70% of the time at least.

Played with a touch of OE, even if you miss the 6 ball, you've got a high probability of hooking the opponent behind the 7 and 8 balls anyway if you do miss the 6.

 

[Hal]

Anyone not trying for this runout in Betmore's Basement would be offered a skirt and some lipstick.

That don't mean much coming from an Efren beater...Would I get a nice pair of Prada pumps as well?