Situation from 2009 Worlds

Just spoke to Danny by the way. I misunderstood his post; he was advocating the two rails and bump the 9. I couldn't tell that from his post and thought he was saying that a totally conservative approach should be taken (follow a bit on the 3 and then just shoot the 9 straight in the other corner). Therefore my tongue-in-cheek response to his (what I thought) unusually conservative suggestion. I'll go back in my hole now.

- Steve
 
Steve Lipsky said:
Andy, while I agree with most of what you wrote, I can't tell you how strongly I disagree with this. You are not going to win 10 safety battles in a row against an equally-skilled (or higher skilled) opponent, no matter how good the first safe is. 10 runs of 10-and-safe is nowhere in the vicinity as strong as 1 run of 100. Taking fairly decent offensive opportunities and choosing instead to play safe is not always the right way to go - even when the safe is slightly higher percentage than the shot.

Everyone is free to disagree of course. This is something I feel strongly about, but I realize I may be in the minority.

- Steve
Click to expand...

Truer words were never spoken.



Even if Ortmann is not a great safety player (and I have never seen anything that makes me think he is); he IS A GREAT OFFENSIVE PLAYER, which means any safety played against him has to be fabulous if you hope to keep him in the chair. It would be difficult to win much more than 50-70% of the safety battles against such a player no matter how well you play safeties.Against some of the old schoolers, it is a huge victory to even win 3 or 4 out of 10 safety battles.

On an unrelated note; but interesting. Even a great traditional straight pool player like Danny D. who prides himself on his safety ability said that he would take any kind of crazy offensive shot against Irving Crane; because his chance of winning a safety battle against Irving was probably LESS than 1 in 10. How good was Irving's safety play? I guess legendary would be an apt description.

I play regularly against a pro who is very skilled at safety play (conceptualization AND execution). The first few years I was probably lucky to win 2 out of 10. I have studied and practiced and probably can win 4 out of 10 nowadays (some days even better). I can't see ever doing much better than that; though the more I can play that side of the rack safety on a full pack; the better I do (I am NOT of a level where my opponent would ever seriously consider taking an intentional 3 foul penalty - unless it was at the very end of a very close 500 point game....if it ever happens, it would be the crowning achievement of an undistinguished pool career; I would gloat about it for years....I've only gotten her on 3 fouls once in 6 years unintentionally)
 
Last edited:
I see your point

Mike,
Thank you for attempting to expand my view between when to go offensive and when to duck. I really appreciate your input and the information that is given on this board. In a real life situation I am not sure which way I would go. It would depend on many factors the biggest being my confidence level at the time.

Steve,
Maybe I exagerated just a little (ok I know I went overboard) with my example. The point I was trying to make (poorly) is that 100% offense is not the only answer. I do know that 10x10 does not equal 1x100.

Thank you both for all the help you have given me by posting on AZB.

Andy
 
Now that I've had time to ponder the opinions offered in this thread, I am in favor of the 2-railer into the 9B.

The first shot (3B) presents only modest difficulty, yet can result in a major advantage in resulting break shots. Best benefit:risk ratio IMO.

Further, it has advantage in that it will offer a decent second shot even if you dog it. 1) Open the angle up too much & you have a shot on either the 9 or 15 with potential to get anywhere on the table.
2) Hit it perfectly & you will bump the 9 into a perfect break shot.
3) Come up a bit short & you will bump the 15 towards the side pocket. You may even create an OK side-pocket break ball.
4) Whiff it on the short side & you have a shot on either the 9 or 15 with potential to get anywhere on the table.

You'd have to hit it TERRIBLY to get the worst of it.

THANKS FOR TEACHING ME A NEW APPROACH.

CueTable Help

 
I would have shot the 3 into the corner, playing for a shot on either of the two balls in the rack...then I would have shot either one of those two balls...the last ball on the table is in the rack and gets spotted on the other end of the table (head spot or foot spot...I can never keep that straight LOL) anyhow, I would have played for a break shot off of that ball. Either your way or my suggestion is difficult/risky but my way seems easier.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top