Situation from 2009 Worlds

The 3 is best

Just this small reply:
You do not shoot the 3 straight down the rail with a stop shot leaving the cue ball on the rail. Totally the wrong way to play that shot.
Place the cue ball at the Head string 4 inches from the rail. Then play your 3 ball with smooth draw on it. The cue ball will make the 3 and bounce appox 3 inches off the rail right in line for the 9 with the angle for the push on the 15.
I took the shot 5 times at home here and made it all 5 times with the same position. Give it a try, you'll like it.
 
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Krisz said:
http://CueTable.com/P/?@4CbAJ4IBCg4OADW1PSXc4dBCg3dIUH1kSXc4kbHs4kThj4kDnl4kGQE2uCUK@

best thing to happen is shown in the diagram.
if i miss the nine on one side, there's still a chance of nudging out the 15 for a possible break shot. if i miss it on the other side or fail to kick it out of the rack, i can still go for a break shot on the head spot.

call me crazy if you like (i've heard it a lot:p), but i like this shot.
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Krisz,

This was Danny Barouty's half-serious suggestion as well. He did it exactly as you diagrammed on his first try (except that I don't think you can get the cueball to bounce off the 9 like that. You'll end up playing the 15 straight in the corner, probably. That's how it worked for him, anyway.)

I say half-serious because the shot is a bit missable, and clearly a lot can go wrong here. But your suggestion is absolutely viable and should not be discounted just because it is unorthodox.

- Steve
 
I am curious if anyone who has a camera wouldn't mind setting up the shot from here, say, 10 times and youtubing the results? Exact cueball positioning isn't important here - I'm just interested to see how profitable the bump is.

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I am curious how many out of those 10 times you get on a fairly legitimate break shot? I am also curious to see if it becomes more successful at the end of the 10 tries, because you're "learning" it. This would indicate it's a bit too risky to play in a game situation, since it's a fairly odd manufacture.

If anyone wants to do this, I'd really appreciate it!

Thanks,
Steve
 
I'm a banger. With that in mind, I would have gone 3-15 and played position for the ball on the headspot for a break shot. Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.
 
Great insight Steve. Thanks for your reply. I love these kinds of threads.

I would have never considered following to the end rail and bumping the nine out.

Andy
 
Set up the whole shot

Steve:
I set up the whole shot and played it the way I had stated.
5 out of 10 attempts. I successfully bumped the 15 ball. 3 times out of the 5 bumps had a break shot in the side pocket with the cue coming either around the back of the rack or coming off one rail into the rack.
The other 2 bumps, I had no good shot. I would of had to play a safe off the 15 ball.
5 times. I played the 3 ball a little too hard and got completely straight with the 9 ball and was unable to bump the 15. So I played the 9 with either draw of high right follow. To send the cue up table for the spot of the 15 ball on the Head spot.
2 times I had an angle to pocket the 15 in the corner and send the cue down table into the rack.
The other 3 times I was too straight and played a safe pocketing the 15 in the corner and leaving the cue on the upper rail.


I did play the other ways mention here but I did miss some spot shots and hung up the 3 ball two times on trying to go to the bottom rail. I did come out with a break 3 times starting with the spot shot. Shooting the 3 ball down the rail and sending the cue into the side of the rack.
My mention way above to me is best. I never gave up the table with the 10 attempts on a miss and was able to complete 5 out of 10 breaks with the other 5 as Safes.
 
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I wrote a post stating exactly what DemonDrew proposed.Of course I was hesitant to post as I am not as experienced as anyone who had posted prior to this.My comfort level with pocketing the 15 and bumping the 3 to a better position is high due to having this type shot come up often in 1hole.I figured worst case -assuming the 15 goes in-is to have the cueball stuck on the 3,or stuck on the rail like what really happened.If the 3 does not move to a favorable place to use as a breakball either pocket the 9 and leave the cue ball in the rack or,pocket either the 3,or the 9,and leave the cueball where you can call safe and pocket the remaining breakball .
Am I really green or is this thinking logical?
Thanks for the interesting debate,Jack
 
Steve Lipsky said:
Baked into WBM's percentages are the chances that I play the safe and nothing hits a rail (though rare, we've all seen it), or that I play the safe and an easy ball pops out in an unexpected way, leaving him a hanger. By shooting the 3 as a breakshot, hitting the rack, and then already seeing that I'm completely safe, I've removed the negative equity results I just mentioned. It's like a come-out roll in craps where I can remove the 2,3, and 12 as instant losers.

- Steve
Click to expand...

Steve,
With your opponent on one foul, it really doesn't matter if you hit a rail with a ball on your safety. I didn't think about a ball popping out - it happens so rarely; but on occasion the corner ball comes back toward the near corner pocket...that would be DEATH against Mr. Ortmann.

Having said that, you have totally convinced me that my shot is not the way to go for world class players. My strategies are skewed by continually playing players far better than me; where their ability to run balls is far greater than mine.

In defense of Danny; I have spent 100's of hours with him; and I have never seen him "backpedal" from his choices. While he often doesn't explain them; if you force him too, he will set them up and SHOW you what he meant...it is freaking amazing that his way is ALWAYS quite convincing. I have seen him in sessions with top pro's, and everytime they enter into a disagreement; they set things up, shoot them a bunch of times; and Danny's way has always been "the way".

Having said that, small differences in ball position can make a huge difference. It could be that from the booth, the 15 looked closer to the 9 or some such thing.

The next time Danny visits Betmore's Basement (several times a year is average) I'll try to remember to set this up (maybe elvicash will videotape it for us) and we can see how he performs. While his shooting skill is a fraction of his previous level (he has severe visual problems), he still can shoot better than me; and he can produce some very high level pool shots.
 
Another Option???

When I first saw this post this is the option that came to mind for me.

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This puts me in a good place to play a behind the rack safety, freeze the cueball to the rack, push balls out to a makeable postion, and since my opponent is on a foul I don't have to worry about hitting the rack to hard.

That being said I don't know what the odds are of winning a behind the rack safety battle like this.

AndyC
 
Question

"This puts me in a good place to play a behind the rack safety, freeze the cueball to the rack, push balls out to a makeable postion, and since my opponent is on a foul I don't have to worry about hitting the rack to hard.

That being said I don't know what the odds are of winning a behind the rack safety battle like this."
AndyC


Andy:
Why would you play for the Safe and end what ever run that you might be on? Also, by playing for the safe behind the rack. Then you have a safe battle going on. Of course, in your favor b/c he is on one foul but still a battle.
Don't you think by pocketing the 9-ball & having the cue ball go up table is better? You can play for an angle on the 15 ball on the Head spot for the break or if your too straight, play a safe and leave him a long safe shot.
At least you are still attempting to run balls with low risk shots.
Let me know what you think;
Mike
 
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14-1StraightMan said:
Just this small reply:
You do not shoot the 3 straight down the rail with a stop shot leaving the cue ball on the rail. Totally the wrong way to play that shot.
Place the cue ball at the Head string 4 inches from the rail. Then play your 3 ball with smooth draw on it. The cue ball will make the 3 and bounce appox 3 inches off the rail right in line for the 9 with the angle for the push on the 15.
I took the shot 5 times at home here and made it all 5 times with the same position. Give it a try, you'll like it.
Click to expand...


I think this is in reply to my earlier post. I agree with you that as diagrammed you'd have to bounce the cue ball off the rail after hitting the 3. But that's risky -- you may come back too far, or not enough, and lose your angle on the 9.

There's a small position zone available there to get the correct angle on the 9. A dead stop shot has almost no risk of missing position. A draw shot off the rail at that distance has some non-zero probability of missing position. In my prior post I was just saying that if the situation presented itself such that a stop shot worked, the 3-9-15 route becomes noticeably less risky.
 
One more point

tsw_521 said:
I think this is in reply to my earlier post. I agree with you that as diagrammed you'd have to bounce the cue ball off the rail after hitting the 3. But that's risky -- you may come back too far, or not enough, and lose your angle on the 9.

There's a small position zone available there to get the correct angle on the 9. A dead stop shot has almost no risk of missing position. A draw shot off the rail at that distance has some non-zero probability of missing position. In my prior post I was just saying that if the situation presented itself such that a stop shot worked, the 3-9-15 route becomes noticeably less risky.
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Thanks for the reply. The way that the balls are set up. If you just make a stop shot on the 3 ball. There is no way to bump the 15 b/c you are on the rail & the cue is too low down table.You need a draw shot to bump the 15. With a stop shot you can only use follow or right follow from the rail not allowing the bump on the 15. I took the shot as I explained on the 3 ball with a slight bounce off the rail many times. Never missed it. It is the best shot to take under the high pressure of the match that Steve was under.
As the position zone that you mention: There are other ways to play the other two balls remaining (the 9 & the 15) as I explained in my other posts. All of which lead to no misses and set up break shots & safeties.
Also, with a stop shot on the 3. Yes, it can lead to no misses, break shots & safes but if I had a choice between taking a shot from the rail & a shot 3 to 4 inches from the rail. There is no doubt which one I would take.
 
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thanks 14.1straightman

You can forget shooting the spot shot. Who needs that! That leaves the 3 almost by default. I like using follow and running the cue to the 9 as it is risk free. When you consider how everyone is agonizing over all the other options it is surprising that almost no one looked at this option.
 
man the more I look at the danny/krisz shot the dumber I feel for not seeing it. Why go all in on a miracle bump on your second shot, when you can try for a bump with your first shot and then try again if it doesn't work out?
 
Before anyone listens to Danny Barouty's option of going for the safer route, please keep in mind that he routinely calls the middle ball in a full cluster, and once in a while even comes within two diamonds of making it.
 
14-1StraightMan said:
"This puts me in a good place to play a behind the rack safety, freeze the cueball to the rack, push balls out to a makeable postion, and since my opponent is on a foul I don't have to worry about hitting the rack to hard.

That being said I don't know what the odds are of winning a behind the rack safety battle like this."
AndyC


Andy:
Why would you play for the Safe and end what ever run that you might be on? Also, by playing for the safe behind the rack. Then you have a safe battle going on. Of course, in your favor b/c he is on one foul but still a battle.
Don't you think by pocketing the 9-ball & having the cue ball go up table is better? You can play for an angle on the 15 ball on the Head spot for the break or if your too straight, play a safe and leave him a long safe shot.
At least you are still attempting to run balls with low risk shots.
Let me know what you think;
Mike
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Mike,
I guess I see it as a way to lose the battle but win the war. Sure my way ends my run but puts me in a very good position to start another one. To me kicking at balls with only 3 balls left is very risky, there are alot of things that can go wrong.
In a practice situation I would try anything to continue the run, but in a tight game I think you need to put yourself in the best postition to win. 10 runs of 10 balls with each run ending in a good safety gives you the same result as 1 run of 100.
Please remember that my solution is based on what my skill level is and knowing what I can and can't accomplish. I have tried kicking at balls in situations like this and, for me, the outcome is very doubtful.
As my skill level ssslllloooowwwlllyyy increases I am sure I will look at this and other situations differently. But with my meager skill set at this time I see the safety as the best option.

Andy
 
Thanks Andy

Android said:
Mike,
I guess I see it as a way to lose the battle but win the war. Sure my way ends my run but puts me in a very good position to start another one. To me kicking at balls with only 3 balls left is very risky, there are alot of things that can go wrong.
In a practice situation I would try anything to continue the run, but in a tight game I think you need to put yourself in the best position to win. 10 runs of 10 balls with each run ending in a good safety gives you the same result as 1 run of 100.
Please remember that my solution is based on what my skill level is and knowing what I can and can't accomplish. I have tried kicking at balls in situations like this and, for me, the outcome is very doubtful.
As my skill level ssslllloooowwwlllyyy increases I am sure I will look at this and other situations differently. But with my meager skill set at this time I see the safety as the best option.


Your opinion is good & there is nothing wrong with the way you stated. Yes, I have won matches with good defense against better offensive players then me.

Andy
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Your opinion is good & there is nothing wrong with the way you stated. Yes, I have won matches with good defense against better offensive players then me.
Here's one thing that I want you to think about. With three balls left on the table, try to think offense before you go to defense. Maybe, I did not make myself clear on my last post but I did not mean for you to try to bump the 15 but just make the 9 and send the cue up table for position on the 15 ball when it gets spotted on the Head Spot. This way you have a chance on a break shot or a very good safe way up table. I hope this helps you and all my posts are only to help other player b/c of my love of the game.
Thanks
Mike
 
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Steve Lipsky said:
Before anyone listens to Danny Barouty's option of going for the safer route, please keep in mind that he routinely calls the middle ball in a full cluster, and once in a while even comes within two diamonds of making it.
Click to expand...

It's posts like this that keep me coming back.
:grin-square:
 
Android said:
10 runs of 10 balls with each run ending in a good safety gives you the same result as 1 run of 100.

Andy
Click to expand...

Andy, while I agree with most of what you wrote, I can't tell you how strongly I disagree with this. You are not going to win 10 safety battles in a row against an equally-skilled (or higher skilled) opponent, no matter how good the first safe is. 10 runs of 10-and-safe is nowhere in the vicinity as strong as 1 run of 100. Taking fairly decent offensive opportunities and choosing instead to play safe is not always the right way to go - even when the safe is slightly higher percentage than the shot.

Everyone is free to disagree of course. This is something I feel strongly about, but I realize I may be in the minority.

- Steve
 
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