middleofnowhere
Registered
The thing is, in most cases they are playing double elimination. If they were playing round robin or gambling with no time limit then yes, the percentages will play out. These tournaments are often like sudden death, lose your first match and you are in trouble no matter who you are.Truth is that neither of you are correct and it has been proven beyond all doubt that whether it is winner or alternate break format does not in any way change the rate at which the better player will win (although what it does change is how close the score line is going to look).
I agree with middleofnowhere on what would seem to make the most intuitive sense though as wrong as it is. If I'm playing SVB I would intuitively want to be playing winner breaks I think. He is the better player so I have little chance of trading racks and keeping up with him when we both have equal breaking opportunities, whereas with winner breaks I could catch a gear and put a pack on him at the right time that takes me over the finish line first, or I could put together several smaller two packs or so here and there along the way where he just wasn't able to because the balls didn't lay as good for him.
Also, alternate break is way more pressure and the better player generally handles the pressure better, and for sure SVB is going to deal with the pressure better than I do, so I want to take away some of his pressure handling advantage by playing the format that has less pressure, winner breaks.
The facts are that SVB is going to beat me the same percentage of the time either way, but if I were to somehow get weak in the mind and allow myself to use my intuition and feeling rather than my logic and knowledge then in such case I'm going to erroneously feel I have a better chance playing winner breaks because it gives the false appearance of giving the underdog more of a chance for an upset.
I remember being in a bar once and some guy asks to play a game for $50.
I agree and he wins the game. I get ready to rack the balls and he is at the bar. We were not playing $50 a game, we were playing a game for $50. As bad a player as he obviously was he was certainly capable of winning one game and he did.
I left out the best part of the story.
This place was a real dump. Our washer had died and we were doing laundry next door and wandered in. We were both playing with junk bar cues and he picked out a cue with no tips on it.
That is one of my wife's favorite stories she loves to tell. Me losing $50.00 to a drunk playing with a cue with no tip.