What do you do here?? 14.1 question

[cmssuits]

Punt?

....no, I'd play it, it's a break shot, what more could you ask for? 14.1 is a difficult game to win waiting for your opponent to make mistakes. Nope, it's a great opportunity, I shoot it, medium speed to the pack - like I expect to get a shot after it clips the side.

 

[Deadon]

If your defensive disadvantage is as great as you suggest, you need to shoot this shot, Willie. Of course, it's tough, but it's your best shot at victory.

One last thing. For those who choose defense here, you must not try to make the spot shot. Little would be gained, but you could sell out a break shot.

There is no defensive play here that will put any significant pressure on your opponent. If I opted for defense here, my approach would be to hit the very edge of the ball I am half an inch away from and leave the cue ball near the bottom rail, a position from which nobody will have much of an edge, and from which, several innings of defensive play will likely follow. I would not disturb the pack in any way with this safety.

Humbly disagree. Thin the 14 with a very little right and bring the cue into the back of the rack, hopefully frozen tight, instead of leaving it on the rail. Leaving it on the rail leaves a good return safety. On my idea, one or two balls will move out of the rack and there is little chance of leaving a shot and the only good return safety is an intentional foul to force you to kick more balls from the rack. Probably my first choice, if the cash was high.

Mike

 

[Williebetmore]

Call safe and cinch the 5, and you need ONE for the win. -Andrew

Drew,
Minor point here; but if you call safe and cinch the 5, it is spotted, and does not count. You would still need 2 balls to win.

P.S. - In a previous matchup with this opponent I reached 149 on THREE occasions in the same game without winning the game (diagrammed and debated in an old thread; I'd dredge it up, but it is too painful).

 

[Williebetmore]

PS
however given this was your first shot on the table willieorwonthe after your 148 spot I think a safe may have been the wise choice? hehe

TheSingle,
I will have to say that the spot was NOT 148 (but upon further reflection, it may be wise for me to ask for that spot prior to the next game).

P.S. - and since I am positive you will now estimate my handicap at 147, I will tell you that it is 80 balls to 150 (to a player that made it out of the round robin stage at the World Straight Pool event in which you excelled). I will admit that there is a "world" of difference between my game and that of such stellar players.

 

[TheOne]

TheSingle,
I will have to say that the spot was NOT 148 (but upon further reflection, it may be wise for me to ask for that spot prior to the next game).

P.S. - and since I am positive you will now estimate my handicap at 147, I will tell you that it is 80 balls to 150 (to a player that made it out of the round robin stage at the World Straight Pool event in which you excelled). I will admit that there is a "world" of difference between my game and that of such stellar players.

only teasing willie but thanks for the thread. Can you beleive it I got a table and I am struggling to find the time to practice at the moment due to lots of other issues! Also sadly had to skip DCC but hope to play you sometime soon, sure it will be fun.

Thanks for the diagram, of course the score and probably more importantly how you feel also adds to the decission.

Good luck in DCC

 

[sjm]

Humbly disagree. Thin the 14 with a very little right and bring the cue into the back of the rack, hopefully frozen tight, instead of leaving it on the rail. Leaving it on the rail leaves a good return safety. On my idea, one or two balls will move out of the rack and there is little chance of leaving a shot and the only good return safety is an intentional foul to force you to kick more balls from the rack. Probably my first choice, if the cash was high.

Mike

Most respectfully, I don't like this idea. It always leaves a fairly simple return safety off the back of the rack, as you can't create threats on both sides of the table with the safety you propose. Disturbing the rack here is, in my opinion, bad pool, as there is little, maybe even zero, chance of gaining a significant defensive advantage, but there is a downside when you move the balls around in a frozen, undisturbed, rack and that is that you will, admittedly only occasionally, leave a dead shot out of the rack. Straight pool safety sequences are rarely resoved in less than a few innings. I'm sticking with the idea of starting with maximum care.

 

[Steve Lipsky]

OK, I'm in the mood to be argumentative . Indulge me, lol.

With all due respect to Thorsten, who plays about 8000 balls better than I do, I am not sure he or some of the other responders have fully read the initial question. The key point is the hero's admission he is probably going to lose most, if not all, safety battles. This is a gigantic part of the equation.

The reason I feel that way is that for all intents and purposes, and this is important, there is then little discernible difference between cracking the rack wide open and scratching, and playing very lightly into the pack and getting safe.. If the hero is going to lose most safe battles, it will be easier to tackle this question as if these two lead to mostly the same scenarios - his much more talented opponent eventually starting a run. Whether he takes his newly-acquired ball-in-hand or he has to beat the hero in the safe battle first, the set-up of this question assumes the hero is going to lose control of the table if he does not win the game this inning.

Hitting the rack lightly and not ending up with a shot is in my opinion a MUCH greater possiblity than hitting the rack with some force (not blasting it, but firmly) and scratching. Trying to make a tough shot, go two rails, hit a specific spot, and do it softly enough to only move "one or two balls" as some are suggesting is very difficult - once you add in that succeeding in everything except getting a second shot is a total disaster (he expects to lose a safe battle), I see very little benefit in this approach.

SJM and I have been saying the same thing throughout this thread - there is almost no equity from this position in Willie beginning the safe battle, no matter how he does it (pocket the five and play safe, or thinning the rack now) - so playing safe in any fashion should not be considered an option here.

Playing the 5 in a very defensive way (pocketing it and trying to lightly disturb the pack), needing two balls when your opponent needs a bunch, is a position that I have not seen anyone be able to justify according to willie's setup.

These propositions, as Lockwood suggested, are indeed about self-discovery, and their benefit is definitely about the discussion. In reality, for anyone to assume that giving up the table in this situation in any fashion will lead to a certain loss (opponent needing almost 100 balls) is silly in the first place. But given that as a parameter of the discussion I think we must use it as a constraint of the question.

- Steve

 

[Williebetmore]

SJM and I have been saying the same thing throughout this thread - there is almost no equity from this position in Willie beginning the safe battle, no matter how he does it - Steve

SL,
I accept that you and sjm are absolutely correct. This was discussed extensively afterwards with my opponent who was quite emphatic that I was correct in doing as you suggest (despite only a modest chance of success).

For those who do not have the privilege of playing against champions; let me say that a 100 ball lead is not as safe as it sounds - 2 or 3 good innings and safeties by such opponents will EASILY erase such a lead. If their safety play is stellar; you are not as comfortable as it seems.