What do you do here?? 14.1 question

[Williebetmore]

Here is an actual situation from a recent game - it's gut check time.

You are in a game with a former #1 player, straight pool expert. You are ahead 148 - 63 (we will NOT mention the size of the spot you received, it's just too embarrassing and demoralizing). This is the stellar break shot you have left yourself. Do you go for it, or play safe?? Your opponent is DEFINITELY capable of running out the game their next inning or two; and is an accomplished safety player. It is your own table, medium tough equipment.

This question is more about self-discovery than trying to figure out the "correct shot." I am very interested in learning how others see this.

 

[jhendri2]

Me personally, to risky. Call safe and sink the 5 with kill english hopefully sitting the cueball as close to the end rail as possible.

Jim

 

[pollux]

you could also pocket the five without trying to break up the pack, and then play a safety from wherever you end up.
seeing as you've been given quite a generous spot to begin with, you'll probably need all the points you can get.

and btw, i end up with break shots like that all the time...

 

[Steve Lipsky]

Hey Willie,

You gotta pull up your skirt and shoot this . You have no devastating safe here, and even if you did, no excellent player worth his salt from here is going to sell out the rack on an ensuing safe. What I mean by that is that your best case scenario is probably going to be he or she taking 3 consecutive fouls.

The pro will then take an opening break shot with you needing at least four, probably more if he or she can do it right. With a decent break, the opening shot you'll be left is going to be very tough, and you won't even have four or five open balls with which to work.

In all likelihood, as you're stroking a very difficult shot off the rail after the break - with no guarantee of a next shot - you'll think back to the position you diagrammed and be sick you didn't shoot it .

Straight pool is an aggressive game, and the only time (imo) the score should enter your mind is if your opponent is the one who only needs a couple balls to win. Then you may have to adjust play.

- Steve

 

[Steve Lipsky]

I don't want to make any enemies, but in my opinion any suggestion of somehow pocketing the 5 without intending to break the rack is just not right. You are then taking all the risk and accepting no reward.

I promise you that against a top player, making that 5 and killing it on the rail has almost zero equity in it. He or she is going to go two rails behind the rack, fouling, and you're right back to where you were - in a safe battle with a better player who is going to foul 3 times rather than sell out.

And if you go for the five but miss (the risk), at best you'll be back in a zero equity position - but at worst you'll leave some kind of a break shot. This is the "go find some traffic and play in it" scenario .

- Steve

 

[jhendri2]

Steve,

So what's your shot? I agree a safety battle would ensue, and I would lose, but I don't want to sell out on the 5 ball.

Jim

 

[Steve Lipsky]

Oops, sorry Jim. My first reply was meant to suggest that you have to go for the break shot here, but I guess I never specifically said that.

- Steve

 

[tedkaufman]

I completely agree with Steve. You go for this shot and break the rack. It this point, you have the chance to win the game by shooting and running out the game. I hate to turn the table over to a great player. I've been hit with too many 100's to assume it isn't going to happen. Better to keep guys like that in their seats.

This breakshot comes up fairly often. If I saw the angle right, it's center high ball, med stroke, two rails into the side of the rack ... and hope you don't scratch off the rack. I've actually had pretty good percentage with a follow up shot off this break, so there is potential to close out the win.

 

[jhendri2]

Oops, sorry Jim. My first reply was meant to suggest that you have to go for the break shot here, but I guess I never specifically said that.

- Steve

I got that part . What I meant to ask was, what ball are you going for in the rack and where are you looking for the cue ball to end up?

Jim <--Always wanting to learn about 14.1

P.S. - I love being able to ask real players what to do, one of the great things about this board !

 

[Williebetmore]

Hey Willie,

You gotta pull up your skirt and shoot this .
- Steve

Steve,
Thanks for the advice. I actually said out loud, "well, if George Breedlove was shooting, he'd just fire in the 5 and go into the stack"; I then pocketed the 5 with my best flamethrower-imitation stroke, coming into the stack fairly high, and just trickled the cue ball down far enough to have an extreme cut on one of the 2 or 3 balls dislodged below the stack. I won against this opponent for only the second time in my life; receiving a "standing ovation" from my nemesis.

Looking back, I've made the observation that using the "Breedlove Criteria" for shot selection is a strategy that may not always lead to good results for mere mortals (though it is one I usually follow, because I LOVE the aggressive shots).

P.S. - to Ted K.; I have probably made this kind of break shot less than 10 times in competition (always with cue ball closer to the 5 than in this scenario) and have been also pleasantly surprised by usually having a follow up shot come out below the rack.

 

[Steve Lipsky]

Jim,

I would definitely aim to hit the 1. Or the 8. Or the 2. Or the 13. Or the 14. LOL, definitely one of those, with no preference for any. Well, maybe a preference for the 1/8 or the 14, but I wouldn't adjust my aim at all for this. I'd miss the 5 by a mile if I tried that, lol.

Seriously, on a shot like this, I am only going to think about 2 things:

1) Make the 5
2) Play it with a firm stroke.

If I miss the rack, I miss the rack. But I will NOT accept hitting the rack lightly and hoping to move out only one ball. I probably won't, and will have inadvertently made it very difficult to play safe.

I am going to hit the rack with a decent speed. That's the only thing, besides making the 5, that I am actively trying to control. After that, it's in the pool god's hands, and I'm comfortable with that.

- Steve

P.S. If you are faced with this shot and aren't comfortable with your ability to make the 5 at least, say, 60% of the time, then you should look to play safe off the rack instead of shooting. If 60% sounds low, remember that I am basing that off willie's initial proposition that he is a significant underdog in a safe battle.

 

[tedkaufman]

Well done, Willie! The value, when you execute a tough shot to beat a strong opponent, is almost unmeasurable.

 

[Mike_Mason]

I think I'll duck...

I might play the 5-ball and have the cue ball come two rails to hit the 2nd or 1st ball for a possible game winner...and if I miss the 5-ball I will probably not leave a shot at it or be in pretty good position to play a safety if I do make the 5 and miss the pack...

But not if I'm a weaker player getting a big spot...I probably don't have the skill to execute the shot with a good enough percentage...more than one thing can go wrong here...

And even if I were a very good player...I think I would just clip the corner ball and tuck the cue ball behind the rack to begin a safety battle.

 

[jhendri2]

Jim,

I would definitely aim to hit the 1. Or the 8. Or the 2. Or the 13. Or the 14. LOL, definitely one of those, with no preference for any. Well, maybe a preference for the 1/8 or the 14, but I wouldn't adjust my aim at all for this. I'd miss the 5 by a mile if I tried that, lol.

Seriously, on a shot like this, I am only going to think about 2 things:

1) Make the 5
2) Play it with a firm stroke.

If I miss the rack, I miss the rack. But I will NOT accept hitting the rack lightly and hoping to move out only one ball. I probably won't, and will have inadvertently made it very difficult to play safe.

I am going to hit the rack with a decent speed. That's the only thing, besides making the 5, that I am actively trying to control. After that, it's in the pool god's hands, and I'm comfortable with that.

- Steve

P.S. If you are faced with this shot and aren't comfortable with your ability to make the 5 at least, say, 60% of the time, then you should look to play safe off the rack instead of shooting. If 60% sounds low, remember that I am basing that off willie's initial proposition that he is a significant underdog in a safe battle.

Steve,

If you hit the 1/8 are you not afraid of getting stuck in the rack with no shot? If you hit the 2, 1/2, or 2/13, shouldn't the 14 come out for a shot?

Jim

 

[lockwood]

slow

Hello all,
If you only need a few, I would make the 5 ball with slow to medium speed and come two rails clipping the bottom of the rack opening just one or two balls and drift towards the short rail. The harder you hit it the more likely you miss the 5 and/or scratch off the side of the rack. Try it. Best of luck.
JS

 

[breakup]

Damn Willie your self esteem is showing.

We established long ago these “pro” opponents were hallucinations so that hasn’t changed. No doubt you are imagining the entire rivalry. The thing I find so sad if this is only the second time you have beat this imaginary pro that even in your dreams you can’t imagine yourself winning with any regularity.

 

[Williebetmore]

...... The thing I find so sad if this is only the second time you have beat this imaginary pro that even in your dreams you can’t imagine yourself winning with any regularity.

breakdown,
Put down the heroin needle; that stuff is BAD for you. The only dreams I have are nightmares that involve being forced to look at you (gives me the creeps just thinking about it).

Anyway, if you can get a day pass out of the "home", you should be practicing your pool. I'm going to beat you like a drum. You'll wish you had stayed on your meds.

 

[bruin70]

play safe. don't get carried away with yourself and do something dumb. that's what players/teams do when they're on the brink of sweet victory, and they p!ss it away by doing something they shouldn't.

 

[sjm]

If your defensive disadvantage is as great as you suggest, you need to shoot this shot, Willie. Of course, it's tough, but it's your best shot at victory.

One last thing. For those who choose defense here, you must not try to make the spot shot. Little would be gained, but you could sell out a break shot.

There is no defensive play here that will put any significant pressure on your opponent. If I opted for defense here, my approach would be to hit the very edge of the ball I am half an inch away from and leave the cue ball near the bottom rail, a position from which nobody will have much of an edge, and from which, several innings of defensive play will likely follow. I would not disturb the pack in any way with this safety.

 

[Williebetmore]

If your defensive disadvantage is as great as you suggest, you need to shoot this shot, Willie. Of course, it's tough, but it's your best shot at victory..

sjm,
This match was against our mutual friend; and I consider my disadvantage quite substantial in ALL areas of play. My opponent afterwards agreed that shooting it was the correct choice, but DANG it was agonizing (I have lost a game to this opponent before after getting to 149 on 3 occasions during the game without closing the deal).