Sorry guys, but I find it really hard to get my head around the plastic swell purely from heat.
The most likely situation is that the material does not have a high enough compressive strength, over time of use has compressed and swelled a little.
I just can't see it getting larger in diameter just from rubbing it.
To me, the ferrule has swelled from compressive force, is now junk and needs replacing.
On tip repairs, I only clean the ferrule 1st, and measure it. Put the tape on it, cut off the old one and trim the new tip to the measured ferrule size +0.002 inches , job done.
Most of my customers do not want the shaft cleaned or any sanding of any kind on the ferrule what so ever.
Neil
Your replaced ferrule looks good.
I did too until I put a ferrule on, used a round nose bit and cut it flush. It felt good and I continued to polish it with 600, 1000, 1500 and held paper on it too long and let it get hot, then felt of it and it was larger than it was before. It had a lip that wasn't there before. This was the soft house ferrule material.