Mike told me they have info on me from a charity event that was like 7 years ago. It's 1 of the 3 events they have info of me on. I've played in a lot of Predator tour events & tri-state tour events but he doesn't have any of that info.
Fargo Rating? Valley vs Diamond
- Thread starter Belford
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Mike told me they have info on me from a charity event that was like 7 years ago. It's 1 of the 3 events they have info of me on. I've played in a lot of Predator tour events & tri-state tour events but he doesn't have any of that info.
I had just thought some of his first place finishes in barbox 8 ball events in the past year would be in the system. Chinook Winds, Carom Room Spring Classic 2015, BCA Grandmaster division (2014) I believe, etc. Seemed like he has been winning most of the bar table 8 ball tournaments in the last couple of years.
I have no problem with FargoRate. I'm not sure I agree with the it's best thing to happen to pool in 10 years but I imagine it can be good-great. I don't understand the hurry the BCA was in for it's use in the upcoming National event though. I look up some numbers of guys I'm even with, better than, and worse than and it's wrong more often than it is right. Not even comparing to myself (in an attempt to not overrate myself), just between other players.
I would think that another year before entering it into a tournament to get more info would be prudent. Maybe I'm in the minority but almost everyone from where I live doesn't have an established FargoRate yet.
Just one example, a guy from our league who hasn't had a break and run or table run in 20 weeks of play (85 games) is a 617. His winning percentage in league is .447. He has a very common name and maybe some info got transposed but he's going to Vegas and he's going to have a FargoRate that's not in the general vicinity of correct.
I would think that another year before entering it into a tournament to get more info would be prudent. Maybe I'm in the minority but almost everyone from where I live doesn't have an established FargoRate yet.
Just one example, a guy from our league who hasn't had a break and run or table run in 20 weeks of play (85 games) is a 617. His winning percentage in league is .447. He has a very common name and maybe some info got transposed but he's going to Vegas and he's going to have a FargoRate that's not in the general vicinity of correct.
If you could PM me the name of the 617-player with the common name I'd appreciate it. You may be right, and I'll check into it.
We've been on the "one more year" wagon for a long time; I think if you understood the effort over the last 6 or 7 years that has gone into data collection, you would be amazed. At some point the band aid had to be yanked off.
Even for your friend, the 617 with no table runs, in the old way he likely would have played in the open division and perhaps faced many players with ratings white a lot higher than that. Now, assuming he entered with the 617 and ended up in the gold division, a bunch of those higher-rated players are going to be missing from that division.
In other words, it may be true we are thin in your area and the tentative ordering of players doesn't pass the smell test. But consider that with all this wide range of players classified as "open" before, it is not like there was more information. The ignorance was just hidden because there was no number assigned.
I really encourage people everywhere to come and play in Vegas in July. You will get your own rating started or improved, and you will contribute to coupling the players you normally play to other players all around the world.
I think those tournaments are all in there
Cleary I don't know what you are looking for. If you think there is a formula that can be put into a spreadsheet to calculate your rating, get used to disappointment.
Here is a serious answer. Please take the time to try to understand this. If you do understand this description, you understand the essence of what we do.
What is the chance of getting heads twice in the next two flips of a fair coin?
What is the chance of the next card being a King with a fresh shuffled deck?
What is the chance of rolling a 7 with two die?
In each case, the chance is called a PROBABILITY, and we can compute the probability because we start with key knowledge that we all accept (heads and tails equally likely on a flip, each of six sides of a die equally likely, 56 cards in a deck, etc)
Now switch to a pool match.
What is the chance Adam Kieler beats Joey Testa in a race to 5?
If we knew and all agreed on the key core knowledge--the chance each wins a single game--then this would be like the above questions. We could answer it, and the answer would be called a PROBABILITY.
But we don't know the key core knowledge. Instead imagine we start with guessed ratings for each player that gives us a guess for that key number--the chance each wins a single game. Armed with this, we compute the chance each wins a race to 5. But because it is based on uncertain core knowledge we call it a LIKELIHOOD rather than a PROBABILITY. The key to what we do is we move the player ratings around until the LIKELIHOOD is as large as possible.
There are nearly 2 million matches in our system. and the LIKELIHOOD all two million of them turned out the way they did is the likelihood each match turned out like it did multiplied together--a product 2 million terms long. Because each match likelihood is less than 1, this product is an extremely small number.
Here is the critical feature for our computed ratings: If you change the rating for any single player out of tens of thousands of players and compute that LIKELIHOOD again, the result will be smaller. Our optimized ratings are the ones that maximize the LIKELIHOOD. And when a single new match is put in, every single person's rating is tickled.
I gotta disagree with your statement. Your Fargo rating is strictly your win/loss vs opponents you are playing on the same tables. If you get out easier on a Valley with buckets odds are your opponent does too. If it takes you an extra inning to get out on a pro-cut Diamond it will also be more difficult for your opponent. I flip back and forth shooting tournaments on Valleys and pro-cut Diamonds, the guys that are tough to beat on tight Diamonds are just as tough to beat on a big pocket Valleys and vice-versa. It seems to me, I am certainly not a short stop level player but I am not a banger either, that most people dont lose because they cant pocket balls, rather they get out position and can not finish their run out. Its just as easy to blow position on big pocket table as it is on a pro-cut table.
My bad...There's only two jokers; so 54 ;-)
lol Mike... you told me a few posts back that I'm misinformed on how your system works when I said people of the same skill that play on different tables have the same rating. So what I as looking for was to be informed.
Yes, I understand probability. Very well actually. What I don't understand is when I lose 9-0 to Ernesto Domingez, how does that effect my rating? How much different would the effect be if it were on a 7' table? How much different would it be if I lost 9-8? Is 9-0 better or worse than the forfeit from the match before that I slept through?
Hi Mike. I'm sure that this has been covered and I missed it, but are break & runs counted and considered in calculating Fargo ratings? In all of the years that I have played in pool leagues, it appears that no team I ever played for kept track of break and runs.
Just curious. Thanks.
Just curious. Thanks.
Cleary, it sounds like your "bid to be sponsored" for the US Open has come back to bite you in the butt! LOL.
Not really, it was a joke from day one. Everyone knew exactly how it would end up and I didn't disappoint. I'd like to add that I also offered to anyone who chipped in, if they were disappointed, I would not only give them their money back but I would double it.
But as far as my Fargo Rating goes.. I honestly could couldn't care less. I don't even play pool any more nor will I ever play in the BCAPL again so, I'm ok with a low rating lol
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Agree, I know it was a joke, just busting your chops.
But as far as Fargo goes, if you joke around half of the time, and play serious half of the time, well, the rating would reflect that.
The "true skill level" thing does seem accurate.
I used to pretty much only play on 9' Gold Crowns. I started playing on 7' Diamonds a few years ago and struggled badly for a while, I was a much worse player on those tables. Then I started playing ONLY on 7' Diamonds for a while and got just as good on those tables.
I think it's a valid point though that Fargo ratings might not be very applicable at any given point in time if the player is playing in an unfamiliar situation.
When I play in a Predator tour or Tri State tour, I'm playing to win. Or even when I played in a BCAPL league. The Vegas thing with pros was just to be silly. Everyone there seemed to get a good kick out of it. It's too bad the things I've played in (and played well) were not included in my rating. I'd like to think I'm better than a 477, whatever that number even means.
477 is probably a rating for somebody in the trophy division. They would have a very slim chance at cashing in the Open Div. at Nationals.
I'm sure you probably play better than that, if you get more games in the system it would come up.
Let me avoid using you as an example because you are unestablished, and the rating shown has influence of a "starter rating," an additional complication.
Instead I'll use a hypothetical player with a rating of 530 based on 400 games.
It depends on a lot of things, including your rating and how many games your rating is based on (your robustness). Let's say this 530 player (based on 400 games) loses 9-0 to Ernesto. That player was supposed to get to around 2 against Ernesto and so fell short of his expectation by 2 games. A rough estimate is to multiply this 2-game shortfall times (800/robustness). That would be 2X2, or 4 points in this case. The player might end up at 526. If the player had only 200 games in, he might have dropped 8 points instead.
None
If our hypothetical 530 player got to 8 against Ernesto, his rating would go up abut 16 points to 546.
That one is on you.
I've given both an explanation and a link to the FargoRate FAQ way back in post 56: http://forums.azbilliards.com/showpost.php?p=5557052&postcount=56
So then why are you wasting your time and our time on this board?