And Corey makes five.................

[watchez]

Really, what would be the point of employing the best ever coach at some expense with the hope of saving the fortunes of Team USA and with that the event itself and then tell him who he has to put in his team? None whatsoever.

Hey Matchroom -- one poster said that Shane McMinn wasn't picked because, well it was inferred cause he is fat and wouldn't look good on TV. Care to comment?

And if Marcus beats Johan two years in a row convincingly, would that make Marcus the best ever coach?

 

[sbpoolleague]

I think you may have overlooked the format they are using for the full event. There will be matches to 5 (singles, doubles, multi?) and the first team to win 11 matches wins the event.

You can use the fairmatch to find the chance that the average European will beat the average American in a race to 5. That chance is 61.3%. Then you can find a pair of ratings that will give that chance for a single game. That would be 802 vs. 735. If you then plug those ratings into a match to 11 wins, you get the chances for the complete event.

According to that method, the chances of the US winning the event is about 1 in 7. If you believe my calculation, you may want to bet everything but your room rent on the Euros if the return is better than 6 on a bet of 5.

Vegas of course sets the line to evenly split the best. They are counting on USA fans liking the team at 2:1 on the money.

It is a mistake to say that the cup is the equivalent of a single match of the "average" players in a race to 11 games. That calculation gives 2:1.

Not sure where you are getting 7:1. Go ahead and plug in 802 and 775 Fargo rates with a race to 5 (8:5) or a race to 11 (2:1) and you will see that the Vegas odds align with Fargo odds almost perfectly. I am fully aware that the match odds feature of FargoRate was not intended to give odds for a Mosconi-like event. I was just pointing out that if you use the Fargo match odds for a single match, whether it be race to 5 or race to 11, and use the teams' average Fargo ratings, that they fit exactly with what Vegas has.

 

[Bob Jewett]

Not sure where you are getting 7:1. Go ahead and plug in 802 and 775 Fargo rates with a race to 5 (8:5) or a race to 11 (2:1) and you will see that the Vegas odds align with Fargo odds almost perfectly. I am fully aware that the match odds feature of FargoRate was not intended to give odds for a Mosconi-like event. I was just pointing out that if you use the Fargo match odds for a single match, whether it be race to 5 or race to 11, and use the teams' average Fargo ratings, that they fit exactly with what Vegas has.

I'm not sure but I think the Vegas odds will be for the complete event. The winning team will have to win at least 55 games, so that corresponds to a much longer match.

 

[Poolplaya9]

Not sure where you are getting 7:1. Go ahead and plug in 802 and 775 Fargo rates with a race to 5 (8:5) or a race to 11 (2:1) and you will see that the Vegas odds align with Fargo odds almost perfectly. I am fully aware that the match odds feature of FargoRate was not intended to give odds for a Mosconi-like event. I was just pointing out that if you use the Fargo match odds for a single match, whether it be race to 5 or race to 11, and use the teams' average Fargo ratings, that they fit exactly with what Vegas has.

Where you are going wrong is that the match odds that FargoRate gives are based on the odds of winning X number of games in a set. It cannot be used to tell you the odds for a player to win Y number of sets in an extended match up. "Sets" and "single games" are not interchangeable when calculating odds with the "match odds" portion of the Farorate app, yet that is just what you were doing, treating games and sets as the same thing.

As Bob suggested, whoever wins the whole match will have won at least 55 games, so to get a rough ball park idea of the odds, you can plug it in as a race to 55. Even this leaves a lot to be desired in accuracy though since it is not a single race to 55 but is broken up into many smaller sets of races to 5 (and the winner will win somewhere between 55 and 95 games total). To calculate each team's odds of winning a match consisting of multiple sets, you would have to calculate the odds for that on your own with some probability math.

 

[sbpoolleague]

I'm not sure but I think the Vegas odds will be for the complete event. The winning team will have to win at least 55 games, so that corresponds to a much longer match.

Where you are going wrong is that the match odds that FargoRate gives are based on the odds of winning X number of games in a set. It cannot be used to tell you the odds for a player to win Y number of sets in an extended match up. "Sets" and "single games" are not interchangeable when calculating odds with the "match odds" portion of the Farorate app, yet that is just what you were doing, treating them as the same thing.

As Bob suggested, whoever wins the whole match will have won at least 55 games, so to get a ball park idea of the odds, you can plug it in as a race to 55. Even this leaves a little to be desired in accuracy though since it is not a single race to 55 but is broken up into many smaller sets of races to 5. To calculate each teams odds of winning a match consisting of multiple sets, you would have to calculate the odds for that on your own with some probability math.

As I clearly explained, I know exactly what the Fargo match odds are, how they work, etc, etc. I'm just pointing out an interesting coincidence. Effin relax.

 

[Poolplaya9]

As I clearly explained, I know exactly what the Fargo match odds are, how they work, etc, etc. I'm just pointing out an interesting coincidence. Effin relax.

If you knew all that you wouldn't have had to ask Bob where he got 7:1 odds from. I think you should relax because your statements showed you didn't actually fully understand, and I was just trying to help, or at the very least your exceptionally poor wording made your point very unclear and your understanding come into question.

Based on your latest post it seems that you have now backtracked and are now saying that the Vegas odds maker's may have incorrectly calculated the odds, possibly with the incorrect use of FargoRate. Got it, thanks for sharing.