That's a really good explanation.
Ignore Bait: Highest IQ, Many Questions, Odds makers invited...
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That's a really good explanation.
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December 29
My legal anniversary, but we celebrate it on our church wedding day, so I'll be able to bring it...lol. I hope you don't think I'm joking...December 29
Jaden
p.s. maybe it'll be one of the fainting goats, they're fun at parties...
I love goats. Had them when I was a kid living in NorCal. I’d have had some in Vegas at my house but my back was so bad I couldn’t have enjoyed them at that time. If I had stayed there, for sure I’d have got a couple. Also some long horn bulls from Texas to look at. I’m not into horses, I had pool tables stored in my horse stables. Jay and my inventory. Lol
I bet. Haven't bailed. Got some vertigo and nausea (one issue about taking on giants I have yet to crack)Fatboy = just wants a goat
Thank you for playing. I do think though that you only erred in thinking 50/50 would play out in the LMAD scenario.
After all the arithmetic coming up the same, I settled at 50/50 guess and N to the billionth unknown because in a real event, Monty would be trying to win.
Still under the weather. Carry on...
If a tree falls on a deaf man's foot I'll bet he hollers.If a tree falls in the woods and nobody hears it. Does it make a noise?
Have a great weekend,
Best
Fatboy
That was part of the point, you don’t need an extreme example , or a PHD, or 27 pages. Just do it! My 6 and 7 year old grandsons figured this out in five minutes! Just get the eff out of your own way, be open minded.
That’s why kids can get good at chess and old people are drawing stone dead in chess.
Lol. Still making up shit so you can think you weren’t completely wrong eh?
Different scenario as the cases are eliminated at random.
Which means there is no additional information the player receives from the banker.
I don’t believe the banker knows the value of each case and therefore is using a % of the expected value remaining. I.E. the bank will almost always offer you less than the expected value.
The real question is should he have taken the $416k deal. And that depends on financial situation of the contestant.
Now, some will attempt to say his case is a 1/26 and the swapped case is 25/26. Which is incorrect unless I missed something.
I haven’t had any time to think about it, but at this point in the game, if we assume he’s not going to take the deal, it’s a true 50/50 as all the case eliminated were done so at random without providing anymore information to the player.
Which is completely different from Monty Hall which he knows what’s behind the doors.
Dude is a legend!
Two other books worth reading are The Lady Tasting Tea by David Salsburg and Against the Gods by Peter Bernstein. The first is about the development of modern statistics, and the second is about how the understanding of probabilities allowed for the development of insurance markets.
A pretty cool one is also “The Professor, the Banker, and the Suicide King.”
Andy Beal, billionaire banker and mathematician, takes on an entire stable of the best poker players at the time (Brunson, Forrest, Reese, etc) heads up. Different players each time.
He knows he’s not as good as them, but uses things like a timer in his shoe he can feel. So he never makes a decision in more or less time and they can get a read on him,
He beats them out of about 10 million. They had to get more money and get Phil Ivey to play.
Beal ends up about a 6 million loser. But the impressive part is how he was able to essentially break them via analyzing the odds and his weaknesses, which he counteracted with things to now allow them to exploit him.
And it took basically the best poker player in history to save their ass.
Not sure if this was addressed, but what is the probability the doors swing inward and the car is so big that the door cannot open enough to see what is inside?
Yes. The odds only work the way some are assuming if the cars and goats get randomly moved after the first door is opened. That's not the case.
You have a 1 in 3 chance when you first choose. No amount of theatrics about how the doors are opened changes that.
Sent from my SM-T830 using Tapatalk
I gotta guy.Fatboy = just wants a goat
Him got scared.
Going back to read the rest of the thread but just had to laugh at how stubborn you are.
Reading on I hope to see that you’re a person of conviction and you put your money where your mouth is.
