Luck vs Skill Percentage - What Do You Think?
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RT Ford
Well-known member
While playing in a tournament at Starcher's Billiards in Akron, Ohio, I was matched up against a player that was far below my skill level. He missed a lot of shots, but practically every time he missed, the cue ball would be buried and I'd have to kick. He wasn't playing me safe. He didn't do it intentionally. It just happened. He ended up winning the match. Sometimes luck is a huge factor.
Flakeandrun
Well-known member
That's called being butthurt
I get that feeling a lot. Like me, you must be a salty, sour loser.Even the most skilful can lose a game of pool.
In snooker, it's often referred to as 'the run of the balls' and even Ronnie, an absolute genius/god-tier sportsman, will sit there and say, you can do nothing about 'the run of the balls' sometimes.
Flakeandrun
Well-known member
Agree, I play someone quite often, who strikes the ball like they're cueing with a wet noodle, and ties everything up without even trying. It won't get under your skin at all really... until you can see their ego swell (or you lost a few $$$)
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Here's what happens in my case. The bad players are supposed to be excellent rackers right? So inevitably if you racked, meaning you lost, you're looking at a potential out from the chair. If you won and broke, the layout will be straight out of the Matrix. At that point the bad player can do anything and leave nothing. Many of them depend on this kind of snailfest to apply their "intellect". If you let it bother you, that's bleeding to them. You're in danger. lol...
BULLSHIT, you are kidding yourself. Sorry
BULLSHIT, you are kidding yourself. Sorry
The only thing I actually agree with is the concept that fortunate leaves are potentially far more punishing in a higher level match ups.
I think we need to pick a game in which to discuss. General statements can't cover all the bases. Lets stick with 9b for sake of discussion.
If you believe the 9b ball break is the luckiest shot in the world, then you clearly have limited your ability to play the game with self delusion. Not until the recent MR change to have the 2b placed randomly in the rack has the 9b break had any level of "luck" involved. Yes tables will break differently, but those with even minor effort in developing the skill of breaking can make correct adjustments in extremely short order. The only level of 'luck' involved with breaking is the amount of effort the racker has used.
Although fargo stats will argue with you. I agree that successful break % is major contributor to match wins.
This boils back down to your skill in breaking. Slapping at the pack as hard as you can and hoping, sure does leave a lot to chance. You can increase your odds by controlling your break. I won't claim to be an elite breaker, but you don't need to search beyond Little Ko's efforts at the USopen, or his proficiency with the 1 on the spot.
Sure fortunate outcomes happen for everyone. However, there is so much more in play at an elite level then random chance. I could drone on for hours attempting to explain the differences between how the elite choose and perform shots vs the banger, that may appear to generate luck but in reality just increases odds. Instead I'll just give you an example....
While at the Open I was watching Alex P play some very skilled dead money. It was later in the set and the rack in question was down to the 6 (7was gone). Alex was left with a moderately difficult 7ft shot down the rail, with the OB being 1/4" off the rail and the CB within 6" with roughly a 15degree cut. The 8b was at the same end of the table, and a little less than 2ft from the short rail. Alex being Alex, punches at the ball with pocket weight and a hint of draw rather than making it slightly easier by rolling through naturally. The end result..? He makes the shot and everyone is impressed. What nearly all missed was that the resulting CB path took the CB and placed it between the shape for the 8 and the target pocket for the 6. If Alex had missed that 6b, his opponent would not have had a clean look and at best a long jump.
When I explain it, it doesn't appear to be luck at all. Mostly because the "lucky" portion wasn't a factor. In fact most of these situations aren't "lucky", unless you consider premeditated and deliberate execution of shots with alternative positive outcomes lucky.
During my second, losing set, at the Open. I faced a player that slapped at everything. Most of what he slapped at went cleanly. I'll give the man credit. He could pot a ball. However his misses were by good margin, and mine rattled in the jaws. His shots had a ton of extra power behind them. Where mine were deliberately hit with as little pace as possible to help increase potting success. His misses often resulted in leaves that provided little opportunity for me. Mine sat like hangers. Was he lucky..? Was I unlucky...? ...nope.
BULLSHIT, you are kidding yourself. Sorry
I think he may be tongue in cheek, I certainly hope he is at least a little! I have to admit that the secret to my success was largely other people overestimating their game.
The reason I always tried to play by the game or very short sets, easy to let people win early and late in a session and them feel like they pretty much broke even. If you are playing races to eleven or thirteen you have to take people's money in too big of chunks too. "There goes the electric bill. There goes the rent." Many people will quit after winning a long set also. They have fulfilled their obligation and there is no good reason they shouldn't quit other than gambler's ethics which always were debatable with the better qualities fading faster than ever now. I think the pool players playing more poker where the lines of ethics can be blurred even more than in pool may be a part of the issue.
Another thing, by and large people have changed. When I made fifty a week, forty after taxes, I kept a hundred dollar bill tucked away. Might use it to put a deposit on something or buy it outright but it was gambling money too. Rainouts on the job, just afternoon stop-offs, never knew when action was to be had. Throwing knives was a favorite on the job. Six to twelve people throwing so good odds on the money and I won close to fifty percent of the throws. Ten or fifteen minutes after lunch could be worth around a hundred. Some of the lunchtime card games were insane. No limit, people could and did lose a month pay on a single hand.
Not as many free rolling gamblers and they do their gambling in casinos or other organized gambling now. Disorganized crime doesn't have a chance!
Hu
A long time ago I came to recognize that player's style had a lot to do with the luck they had and the tables they left behind. Like most I think, when I developed a little skill I resented the people that blasted crap everywhere and destroyed patterns on the table as fast as I could make them!
I was little more than a banger myself but I recognized that their luck wasn't luck at all but created by their style of play. A change of perspective that helped my game a bunch. It is a big shift in perspective to recognize that it isn't their good luck or my bad luck causing me to struggle, it is their playing style.
There is very very little luck in pool and the better you and your competitors get the less luck there is. While it is a slight exaggeration I prefer to believe there is no luck in pool after the break. There is no luck in the break either but most of us haven't mastered it to the level to take all the luck out. After that, no luck. We are seeing the results of our shots and our opponent's shots. It isn't luck when they go five rails and scatter my sweet roadmap they didn't even know existed. I make a few balls, I nudge a few balls around, and play safe. They don't have a shot so I can predict what they will do, smash hell out of things!
I didn't do my job so it is no luck at all that I have to rebuild a pattern to play. The balls are doing exactly what my shots and my opponent's shots direct them to do. Almost always, "luck" on a pool table, good or bad, isn't luck at all.
Hu
So i lost 2 matches last night to a weaker player. He played well and got some favorable "rolls". Miscued and made the ball with perfect shape for a shot he couldn't get position on - after hooking himself , on another cosmo runout after the break , he made a easy jump but missed by a diamond and caromed in off another ball.
I did have chances on very tough tables,barbox 8ball,where I would have a ball or 2 tied up in multiple places each rack. His breaks were great if he made a ball horrible tables if he didnt.
I still should have beaten him but when things are running bad that's the way it sometimes goes.
I did have chances on very tough tables,barbox 8ball,where I would have a ball or 2 tied up in multiple places each rack. His breaks were great if he made a ball horrible tables if he didnt.
I still should have beaten him but when things are running bad that's the way it sometimes goes.
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Happens to us all. Drives me crazy, but it's just part of the game. Unlucky rolls, both playing and sitting, will happen. Skill is the ability to minimize unlucky rolls while you are at the table. Face it, though, when you roll the cue ball 1/8 inch too far it is not bad luck. You did that to yourself.
I always attribute those matches to the pool gods. Might need to go by the Colonel's and get a chicken to sacrifice. The pool gods are old school, get the original recipe chicken.
Hu
+++++
Original is my choice!
boogieman
It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that ping.
I like my opponents to think that too! It's theater. When I play a 2 way shot it looks like something went way wrong, I might even chicken wing it for added believability. Maybe even slouch my shoulders and point at a diamond or re-stroke the shot in the air shaking my head as I walk away. I've literally had someone break their stick before with this act.
Of course this stuff does happen, but it's not that hard to leave the CB in a bad spot if you can't make a ball. And it's real easy to convince someone that luck/rolls were against them. Especially if you're doing it in an unorthodox manner.
RT Ford
Well-known member
You're talking about a hustler intentionally missing a shot and playing safe. I was talking about 'B' players that missed makeable shots and got lucky leaves in a tournament. Two entirely different situations.I like my opponents to think that too! It's theater. When I play a 2 way shot it looks like something went way wrong, I might even chicken wing it for added believability. Maybe even slouch my shoulders and point at a diamond or re-stroke the shot in the air shaking my head as I walk away. I've literally had someone break their stick before with this act.
Of course this stuff does happen, but it's not that hard to leave the CB in a bad spot if you can't make a ball. And it's real easy to convince someone that luck/rolls were against them. Especially if you're doing it in an unorthodox manner.
RT Ford
Well-known member
It's just part of the game. I don't let it bother me anymore. If I play nine ball for money, my opponent has to play by my rules. Call the ball and pocket. Nine on the break doesn't win the game and is spotted. It eliminates a lot of slop.
BULLSHIT, you are kidding yourself. Sorry
I was regular competition in my area, so I had a radar for player skills.
The difference between pocketing the shot and looking like a miss with a perfect leave for incoming player is another way to play.
Sometimes I want to see how they play BIH or from a specific location.
Then I would predict which route the player would take.
There were clear openings I left, for the intended player to choose.
14.1 basic defensive strategy
You want to give your opponent bih to see how they play? That has to be the stupidest thing I've ever heard
WobblyStroke
Well-known member
A beaut of a hustler I played fairly often played that way in tournameents all the time. He'd gladly offer up his 570FR when making matches yet strung together 3 and 4 rack runs on me in a ho hum manner. Just a master of the good miss. You always felt u were in the set with him and lost because of either luck or a mistake here n there u shiuldnt have made. Funny how he only had bad days on my bad days. His play style is best described as "I bet you can't run out". Tricky layout? Have as many turns as u want. Road map? I guess I'll clear this one....maybe leave u in a 'fluke' hook. Beautician. He passed cpl months ago and willbe missed. I'd venture a guess he was really around 700FR. Can't tell tho bc I wasn't good enough for him to have to show me his top speed. He just won our races to 15 about 15-12, 15-13 at about a 2:1 clip....way higher than that margin would suggest. And Im a favorite against real 570s.
Loved the show. Me and boogieman would get along.
I have always said there are 2 ss in Guess and 2 ss in miss
If you dont have a System You are Guessing and even if you guess correctly chances are next time you wont
When I give people lessons I respectfully tell them I dont care if you take shots /kicks /banks by feel if you want to be Consistent YOU NEED A SYSTEM IMHO
If you dont have a System You are Guessing and even if you guess correctly chances are next time you wont
When I give people lessons I respectfully tell them I dont care if you take shots /kicks /banks by feel if you want to be Consistent YOU NEED A SYSTEM IMHO