(Un)Popular Opinion on Fargo Rate

[mikepage]

How many of those 22,000 games are actually used in his fargo rate calculation? I'm pretty sure there is a time decay in the calculation.

The FargoRate optimization uses all the games but pays far more attention to recent games. The really old games are for all practical purposes ignored. We can still estimate the performance in 500-game chucks, though. You can see that for Morra--you're going to estimate a little below 800 however you treat old games. The fluctuations are larger than any actual drift. Here are a dozen years.

 

[Rocket354]

I understand what you wrote , do you understand it looks like you are grasping for straws to refute Mike?

Mike is grasping at straws and engaging and extremely poor analysis for no apparent reason. If you have expertise in statistical analysis, however, I'm all ears. Otherwise, let's move on.

 

[Rocket354]

The FargoRate optimization uses all the games but pays far more attention to recent games. The really old games are for all practical purposes ignored. We can still estimate the performance in 500-game chucks, though. You can see that for Morra--you're going to estimate a little below 800 however you treat old games. The fluctuations are larger than any actual drift. Here are a dozen years.View attachment 847249

The 740 and multiple 760 groupings are interesting. Using similar "analysis" one might conclude that Ameer is more likely to be an 880 player than an 820 player.