Fargo rate question

[measureman]

I play in an 8-ball league on Tuesday nights.
On Monday my rate was 575 last night I won all 5 games and this morning my rate dropped to 572?

 

[skip100]

2 point shifts are basically random noise.

 

[slide13]

Are your Tuesday night matches showing up yet even? It's often 5-7 days before I see my recent matches show up in Fargo.

But it's not uncommon for a rating to move a point or two just randomly like that. I've had mine move by a point when I haven't played at all but it's never more than a point or two.

 

[measureman]

Are your Tuesday night matches showing up yet even? It's often 5-7 days before I see my recent matches show up in Fargo.

But it's not uncommon for a rating to move a point or two just randomly like that. I've had mine move by a point when I haven't played at all but it's never more than a point or two.

Last night's matches are on Fargo.

 

[David in FL]

Are your Tuesday night matches showing up yet even? It's often 5-7 days before I see my recent matches show up in Fargo.

But it's not uncommon for a rating to move a point or two just randomly like that. I've had mine move by a point when I haven't played at all but it's never more than a point or two.

FWIW, our LO enters match results from all her various leagues on Friday, regardless of when they were played.

 

[NevadaP]

Last night's matches are on Fargo.

I think if you win a very close game/match against a much lower rated opponent, your Fargo score can be negatively affected.

 

[mikepage]

I play in an 8-ball league on Tuesday nights.
On Monday my rate was 575 last night I won all 5 games and this morning my rate dropped to 572?

An average day has 35,000 - 40,000 new games added to the system. This in general gives us a better understanding of how everybody plays, including all your opponents and you. This part, even without new play from you, could raise or lower you by a few tenths of a point or even points. Any effect of your new games is happening at the same time. If you only played a handful of games, the former part can dominate the change you see.

 

[iusedtoberich]

What's your robustness? If it's super low such as under 50, you will probably move a few points every day. If your prior opponents, for example, played bad, they will pull your rating down.

 

[measureman]

What's your robustness? If it's super low such as under 50, you will probably move a few points every day. If your prior opponents, for example, played bad, they will pull your rating down.

Robustness: 353.

 

[Cartune]

Is this a BCA league or a UPL league? My BCA take days if not weeks to change, where as the UPL changes in a day.

 

[iusedtoberich]

Robustness: 353.

Do you play any tournaments? Perhaps one you did poorly in just got added to your FR the same time the league data did? (tournaments usually lag 1-3 weeks, while league data is usually 1 day).

If the only new data between yesterday and today were the 5 league matches where you went 5-0, then the only thing that makes sense is your prior opponents from the 353 stunk it up in their own matches the past few days.

 

[mikepage]

[...]

If the only new data between yesterday and today were the 5 league matches where you went 5-0, then the only thing that makes sense is your prior opponents from the 353 stunk it up in their own matches the past few days.

Prior opponents doing poorly is rarely the main story.

Think of it like a 401(k). Your account usually does not fall because one stock had a bad day. It falls because the whole sector you were heavily invested in got repriced.

Fargo works similarly. If most of your opponents come from the same league, town, or player pool, those opponents are correlated. So when the system learns that that whole pool was a little stronger or weaker than previously thought, your rating can move too, even if you have not played and even if your opponents have not played.

A player with a more diversified mix of opponents is less exposed to those tide shifts.