A dedicated player willing to work hard, learn the things they need to learn, and practice smartly can easily raise their game by much more than 50 points if they are committed to improving. For example, I have seen many dedicated players advance from 400 level to 550 level within a couple of years after putting in the necessary work. "Natural talent" and "starting young" are certainly factors, but I think they are often grossly overrated.
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Excuse me while I put MY shirt on.
I just downloaded all players who two years ago had at least 400 games in the system and were within 20 points of 400 at the time. That's 3140 players. I suggest getting a pencil out and taking a stab at answering the following questions before reading the followup post. The courageous amongst you will post your answers after seeing the results. And trust me it will take courage.
The average 2023 rating was 401.8
2745 of the 3140 played at least some games in the last two years
1939 logged at least 200 new games
1171 logged at least 400 new games
420 logged at least 800 new games
83 logged at least 1600 new games
The average 2023 rating was 401.8.
(1) What is the average rating of this group now?
(note, any increase could come from some combination of rating inflation, if there is any, and improvement)
(2) How many of the 3140 are at least 550 now?
(3) How many of the 3140 are at least 500 now?
(4) How many of the 3140 are at least 450 now?
(5) Of the 240 players who started with fewer than 600 games (average 495) two years ago AND logged at least 500 new ones (average 875 new games), what is the average rating now?