Archer and Alternate Break

[sjm]

As the BCA Open is underway, I'll stick with my prediction that Immonen will win and Archer will also have a strong finish. And yet, on the latter point, I'm having second thoughts, and the reason is that the BCA Open uses alternate break. I'm not sure any player is more dependent on his break for success than Archer, and making it impossible for Johnny to string racks seems to hurt his chances a lot.

One year, 1998 I think, the now-defunct Camel Tour switched from nine ball to ten ball. One huge difference between the two games is that it's much tougher to make balls on the break in ten ball. Archer had one of his worst, if not his worst year as a pro, and I think a lot of it was that his greatest weapon, a break rightfully called the best in history by some, was devalued. The alternate break format used in the BCA Open seems to similarly devalue Johnny's greatest weapon.

Though Johnny is an undeniable superstar and legend of the game, I think it will be difficult for him to win, and look forward to hearing how others feel on this point.

 

[Johnson]

Interesting subject, i have wondered the same, johnny is one of the more consistent players to string racks together. This has been debated b4, and i think a lot of people made valid points that benefited the better player. I was just thinking about an analogy with tennis, and the serve format there, they use alt serve from game to game, well what if they made it winning player gets to serve the next game? would this help the better server? yes, BUT does the better player still have an advantage with alternating games? I think the answer would be yes, but would this transfer over to pool? I think so, but for sure it takes a lot away from the elite player who can consistently string a lot of racks together. I like the winner breaks format, makes it more interesting to watch i think, for tv matches ne way. If u can string racks together u can surely break an run individual games, i don't agree with johnny soley relies on his break, he's a great shot maker, and 99% of the time will run an open table.
________

 

[Joe T]

Johnny won the Valley Forge super Expo tournament which was alternate breaks and he lost his first match. Alternate breaks is like a break-n-run contest and who's gonna break-n-run more than a guy with a great break? You're right on the money with the 10 Ball, less of a break contest and more of a position, safety and kicking contest!

Joe T
Wishing he was alternating breaks with Johnny in Vegas!

 

[Williebetmore]

Johnson,

The best player also wins 99% of the time no matter the break format. John is a great player.
thanks so much.

Gumbocue

G'cue,
Your estimate of 99% seems a tad high. In short race 9 Ball I think the figure is closer to 50% when dealing with the top 30 or 40 pro's. In other words they might as well flip a coin (if anyone was really interested in finding out who the best player is, they wouldn't be playing a ridiculous game like 9 Ball). JMO.

 

[Williebetmore]

i don't agree with johnny soley relies on his break, he's a great shot maker, and 99% of the time will run an open table.

Johnson,
I think 99% is a little optimistic. I am told by someone who was there, that Efren broke 100 racks of 9 Ball, took ball in hand after the break, and ran 82 of the 100 racks (82%). I doubt anyone can do 90%.

 

[drivermaker]

As the BCA Open is underway, I'll stick with my prediction that Immonen will win and Archer will also have a strong finish. And yet, on the latter point, I'm having second thoughts, and the reason is that the BCA Open uses alternate break. I'm not sure any player is more dependent on his break for success than Archer, and making it impossible for Johnny to string racks seems to hurt his chances a lot.

Though Johnny is an undeniable superstar and legend of the game, I think it will be difficult for him to win, and look forward to hearing how others feel on this point.

I think it's ALWAYS difficult to win and never a breeze for anyone, as evidenced by Efren's first round loss. Although Johnny might not win, I don't think it'll be because of alternate breaks. He's just so strong in all areas of the game, but most of all in desire and heart.

In the book "Play Your Best Nine Ball", author Phil Capelle has an extremely well written chapter on the break and it includes some stats from a study that he did. He ran numbers for 500 games on the pro's and found that they break and run 28% of the time. The players with the two best tournament records in the 1990's were Johnny Archer and Earl Strickland. Each of their break and run percentages exceeded the average pro. Earl broke and ran
32.7%(1) of the time while Johnny's average was 31.7%(2). Everyone else was below those percentages. So according to the stats, winner breaks would be in Johnny and Earls favor and increase their chances of a win. But I've also seen Earl and Johnny go through matches where they were as cold as ice and couldn't sink a ball on the break if their life depended on it and still win the match and the tournament. Even for them, they can be hot or cold with the break at times. When they're on, they can string racks together maybe better than anyone. But unless their opponent is making a ball on the break and running out, Johnny can still come up to the table after their miss and run the rack. According to the stats, he'll have that chance 72% of the time.

 

[Johnson]

Johnson,
I think 99% is a little optimistic. I am told by someone who was there, that Efren broke 100 racks of 9 Ball, took ball in hand after the break, and ran 82 of the 100 racks (82%). I doubt anyone can do 90%.

I said open table, by that i meant no balls tied together, that's what open table means to me. Not just any table in general. 99/100 might be a lil high i guess, wonder what the % would be on that? It sounded like sjm was tryin to take away from johnny's greatness so i thought i would say something to reinforce his greatness.
________

 

[Williebetmore]

I said open table, by that i meant no balls tied together, that's what open table means to me. Not just any table in general. 99/100 might be a lil high i guess, wonder what the % would be on that? It sounded like sjm was tryin to take away from johnny's greatness so i thought i would say something to reinforce his greatness.

You are totally correct in thinking Johnny is great, his record speaks for itself. I have no idea what a top pro's runout percentage would be with no balls tied together. I'll bet it would be in the 90% range though (maybe you weren't so far off with that stipulation). I know a couple of pro's who have done a lot of this sort of thing - I'll ask them what they think.

 

[gromulan]

For the record I would say that the player with the better break will always have an advantage, regardless of the format, just as does the tennis player with the better serve and the golfer drives the ball farther. It's simply the nature of the game.

Having said that, I agree with another post that stated that it's always difficult to win a major pro tournament, regardless of the format. The fields are so deep and the players so talented that factors like great shotmaking and great breaking play less of a role than do the intangibles like heart, desire, and the ability to stay cool under fire. These are qualities that Archer has in spades, which is why he's been the most successful player of the past 12 months.

I also don't think that the alternate break format (which has got to be the worst way to play nine ball) creates a situation whereby any other pro will find it 'easier' to win.

 

[Williebetmore]

For the record I would say that the player with the better break will always have an advantage, regardless of the format, just as does the tennis player with the better serve and the golfer drives the ball farther. It's simply the nature of the game.

Having said that, I agree with another post that stated that it's always difficult to win a major pro tournament, regardless of the format. The fields are so deep and the players so talented that factors like great shotmaking and great breaking play less of a role than do the intangibles like heart, desire, and the ability to stay cool under fire. These are qualities that Archer has in spades, which is why he's been the most successful player of the past 12 months.

I also don't think that the alternate break format (which has got to be the worst way to play nine ball) creates a situation whereby any other pro will find it 'easier' to win.

I would certainly agree that the pro player with a better break does have quite an advantage. I have to disagree with your opinion that "the intangibles like heart, desire, and the ability to stay cool" are what separate these players. The top 20 or 30 pro's are fairly even in ability, and from what I've seen they ALL have these intangibles (that's why they are in the top 20 or 30). What separates them in a 9 ball tournament is LUCK! Luck of the draw, luck of the rolls. If you put these top 20 in a room every day, playing a round robin format (short race 9 Ball), you would have a different winner every day. You might as well flip a coin or play paper/rock/scissors as make these players play a stupid game like 9 ball. If they were playing games of straight pool to a 1000 the same player would win every time (not a practical suggestion).

 

[ceebee]

For the record I would say that the player with the better break will always have an advantage, regardless of the format, just as does the tennis player with the better serve and the golfer drives the ball farther. It's simply the nature of the game.

Having said that, I agree with another post that stated that it's always difficult to win a major pro tournament, regardless of the format. The fields are so deep and the players so talented that factors like great shotmaking and great breaking play less of a role than do the intangibles like heart, desire, and the ability to stay cool under fire. These are qualities that Archer has in spades, which is why he's been the most successful player of the past 12 months.

I also don't think that the alternate break format (which has got to be the worst way to play nine ball) creates a situation whereby any other pro will find it 'easier' to win.

Having Heart, a great Desire & staying COOL under Fire, might just help a TOP PRO every once in a while. Possessing the ability & knowlege to play the game & applying that very well, plus getting the rolls, will win lots of Tournaments & Matches.

In every book of instruction on the Game of Pool, written in the last 10 years, the Break Shot is judged as VERY IMPORTANT. I do agree that if you are not a good player, the Break Shot is just a way to start the game. But if you are capable of running a rack of 9 Ball or 8 Ball, your Break Shot becomes an advantage or a handicap for you.

If you break the rack, get a good spread & you do not have a shot because you lost control of Whitey... you MIGHT leave the Table for your opponent to be in the offensive mode.

If you break the rack, get a good spread & you do have a shot, because you controlled the position of Whitey..., you might make a few balls, all the balls or at least leave the Table with your opponent to deal with a difficult leave.

These scenarios are not a matter of Luck, they are a matter of Skill.

In a big Match or Tournament, a good Break Shot does matter & people continuosly comment on the winning or losing Player's Break Shot. In a situation of alternating breaks, you'd best be breaking well & shooting even better than that.... if you expect to win against a formidable opponent.

 

[yobagua]

Eastwood wouldnt like the alternate break

The alternate break for me is unsatisfying in tournament play. Because it is all about rhythm and keeping your opponent off balance. To watch a player run a six pack is exciting but more than that to see an opponent coming back from a 6 rack deficit. Like in straight pool when someone runs 120 and stops and the opponent steps up and runs 150 and out. This is what championship is all about. How a pro faces adversity. Watching guys like Mike Sigel do that made you understand what a champion is all about.
When Alex P ran 5 racks against Efren and then not pocketing anything on the break Efren steps up and runs 6 back. You feel electricity in the air. This is high drama where you see the Good, turn into The Bad and then the Ugly. This alternate break stuff is for namby pamby's.

 

[Williebetmore]

The alternate break for me is unsatisfying in tournament play. Because it is all about rhythm and keeping your opponent off balance. To watch a player run a six pack is exciting but more than that to see an opponent coming back from a 6 rack deficit. Like in straight pool when someone runs 120 and stops and the opponent steps up and runs 150 and out. This is what championship is all about. How a pro faces adversity. Watching guys like Mike Sigel do that made you understand what a champion is all about.
When Alex P ran 5 racks against Efren and then not pocketing anything on the break Efren steps up and runs 6 back. You feel electricity in the air. This is high drama where you see the Good, turn into The Bad and then the Ugly. This alternate break stuff is for namby pamby's.

Exactly right.

 

[gromulan]

You hit that squarely on the head. Well said. That's why when guys are gambling they play winner breaks. I know I'm not going to bet MY money in an alternate break match.

The alternate break for me is unsatisfying in tournament play. Because it is all about rhythm and keeping your opponent off balance. To watch a player run a six pack is exciting but more than that to see an opponent coming back from a 6 rack deficit. Like in straight pool when someone runs 120 and stops and the opponent steps up and runs 150 and out. This is what championship is all about. How a pro faces adversity. Watching guys like Mike Sigel do that made you understand what a champion is all about.
When Alex P ran 5 racks against Efren and then not pocketing anything on the break Efren steps up and runs 6 back. You feel electricity in the air. This is high drama where you see the Good, turn into The Bad and then the Ugly. This alternate break stuff is for namby pamby's.

 

[piglit]

You hit that squarely on the head. Well said. That's why when guys are gambling they play winner breaks. I know I'm not going to bet MY money in an alternate break match.

I love to be the player that takes over in a session...puttin' somethin' on they a$$...by keeping my opponent sitting. I prefer winner breaks.

But, wouldn't it be advantageous to play alternate break format against a player that has a better break than you?


-piga

 

[satman]

Yes it is. I have always enjoyed catching those guys who play all the time {gambling and tournaments} at a loser or alternate break tournament off guard. A shortstop has a chance with the champions in this format. Sam