betting against an unknown guy playing the 8 ball ghost?

S

smashmouth

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
short version, guys offered me a 10k bet, I went to bank for cashand he chickened out upon my return

FRAT

under the following conditions, what's the break and run percentage required for you to place a 10k bet against an unknown?....you know he's not a pro and that's about it but apparently the local monster

I walked into a local room today and ran into some friends of friends, these guys swore i was in the presence of God....this guy George, top room player I guess, didn't see him play, he was shooting at the end of the room, they're tellin me he runs out 90% of the time

i called bs right away and said I would bet against it, they promptly run over to George and he says he'll take the bet but he only plays cash for "big money" to which we agreed 10k would suffice

he says he has it on him, we agree to the following which were essentially his terms, lol

a)straight break and run 90%
or
b)break and get a free shot where from where the cue ball lies 80%

my choice of a or b

I get to rack

10 games

everyone in the room swore i was done, i explained i was good with the bet and simply required the time it would take to get the cash to get this going, as it turned out....around 30 minutes

part of me expected him to either rescind the bet...... or lose and not pay
as it turns out, he did the former

his excuse was not worth repeating, if you've called out bluffs before you've heard them all before

i then got to see him play a bit...and yeah he was a frickin monster, cleaned up those balls real nice with a smooth stroke and nice form, very effortless, one of the best local players I've seen in years outside pro level

i then offered to play against him any game of his choice with a spot and he declined

the moral..............damn TOUGH.....to get action these days, lol
 
Even with BIH 90 percent is not possible in the long run. I'd bet every dollar I have with anybody saying they run out 9 of 10 even with ball in hand. I broke and ran 3 sets going to 4 once (12 consecutive racks). A lot has to go right to allow runouts. The shooter can't control the break well enough to do 90%.
 
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Shane wouldnt take that bet. Not sure why you even bothered getting the money. Either he was going to back out or somebody was planning to beat you up for your money.
 
gxman said:
Shane wouldnt take that bet. Not sure why you even bothered getting the money. Either he was going to back out or somebody was planning to beat you up for your money.
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Obviously because Shane is a glove wearing pansy amirite :grin-square:
 
iusedtoberich said:
What does option B mean?

It sounds like both A and B are not BIH? If so, for sure you had the way best of that.
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Sounds like A meant the guy had to break, make a ball, then run out at least 9 out of 10 times. B meant that if he didnt make a ball on the break, he still got to shoot, from where the cue ball landed. 8 out of 10 racks.
 
Masayoshi said:
Isn't B easier than A?
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Absolutely, so maybe I'm reading it wrong...

EDIT: Ok after reading it again, it sounds like option A is basically playing the 8 ball ghost, with BIH after break 9 outta ten racks. Option B is no ball in hand after break, must shoot from where the cue ball lies, but you only gotta convert 8 outta ten racks
 
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I think I liked the NY/AZ Killers stories better.... Total Fictional BS but thanks... Those 5 minutes of my life to read this drivvle were boring anyway....
 
smashmouth said:
... but he only plays cash for "big money" to which we agreed 10k would suffice ...
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Well, you could have both posted "earnest money" like $200 with the desk man so at least you would have gotten something for your trip to the bank.
 
Bob Jewett said:
Well, you could have both posted "earnest money" like $200 with the desk man so at least you would have gotten something for your trip to the bank.
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Silly, now you are being logical.

I still find it hard to believe that,the nits in the place just didn't give away their 10G?
 
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