What I have been curious about is what really matters, break and win percentages.
Anyone have numbers for nine or ten ball?
eight ball?
Hu
Anyone have numbers for nine or ten ball?
eight ball?
Hu
break and win percentage
- Thread starter ShootingArts
- Start date
Thanks, I'll take a look!
Thanks, I'll take a look. I hadn't noticed anyone compiling break and win percentages, figured Fleming might and I was gonna give my old friend Terry Ardeno a shout.
What I'm wondering is how often the pro's run to a strong safety and how often they run to a miss. Watching live, I suspect all the way up to regional play levels the break playing ten ball confers no advantage for most of the competitors, I doubt nine ball breaks do. Style of play is the issue, too aggressive.
Hu
Thanks, I'll take a look. I hadn't noticed anyone compiling break and win percentages, figured Fleming might and I was gonna give my old friend Terry Ardeno a shout.
What I'm wondering is how often the pro's run to a strong safety and how often they run to a miss. Watching live, I suspect all the way up to regional play levels the break playing ten ball confers no advantage for most of the competitors, I doubt nine ball breaks do. Style of play is the issue, too aggressive.
Hu
There's too much wisdom here from Hu - from most bangers to Pro's to absorb. JMHO also.
I WANT A BIG PACKAGE.
Gimme a break ego. It should be @ the WIN. "OMG, I ran 6, I gotta shoot a flier now to get to 7 to get on AZB and make Wikipedia!"
Anti-ego rant over. :grin-square:
Thanks a Bunch!
AtLarge, Thanks a bunch, maybe even two bunches!
I had wanted to know about innings too but figured I would be getting a bit over the top with that request. A little searching and following all of the links you provided in posts I found not only what I had asked for but what I thought was too much to ask for. I am very impressed with your record keeping and much appreciate you sharing the information so freely.
Dave, handy to have much of the information AtLarge provided in one place, thanks!
Looks like the swap to ten ball is no longer accomplishing much at the highest levels, first person to pocket a ball wins. Interesting to see, at least judging by a small sample, while age and the other players are no doubt catching up with Efren, a major issue is that he hasn't devoted the time to studying the break some of the other players have.
Looks like time to put twelve or fifteen balls on the table to balance things out a little. I like run outs but I also like battles. Another ten or fifteen years and putting fifteen balls on the table and making the players run all fifteen might be the norm for rotation games. Bar tables are gonna get mighty crowded if that happens!
Thanks for the information,
Hu
AtLarge, Thanks a bunch, maybe even two bunches!
I had wanted to know about innings too but figured I would be getting a bit over the top with that request. A little searching and following all of the links you provided in posts I found not only what I had asked for but what I thought was too much to ask for. I am very impressed with your record keeping and much appreciate you sharing the information so freely.
Dave, handy to have much of the information AtLarge provided in one place, thanks!
Looks like the swap to ten ball is no longer accomplishing much at the highest levels, first person to pocket a ball wins. Interesting to see, at least judging by a small sample, while age and the other players are no doubt catching up with Efren, a major issue is that he hasn't devoted the time to studying the break some of the other players have.
Looks like time to put twelve or fifteen balls on the table to balance things out a little. I like run outs but I also like battles. Another ten or fifteen years and putting fifteen balls on the table and making the players run all fifteen might be the norm for rotation games. Bar tables are gonna get mighty crowded if that happens!
Thanks for the information,
Hu
It is interesting that the "breaker wins" percentages are down at the 55% level. Most people think the break is a much larger advantage than that.
I wonder if that high a percentage can be explained simply by random outcomes for "winner breaks" formats. Or maybe it will be simply from unequal abilities of the players in the tournament. In matches with mismatched players, the score will likely be lopsided and then the "breaker wins" percentage will be boosted even though the break may not have been decisive. An 11-1 match has a "breaker wins" percentage of about 85%. For that matter, if a match is 11-1 between two equal players just by chance, the BW% will go up.
Yes, Bob; here's what I have written previously on this:
The percentage of games won by the breaker in pro events is generally in the range of 45% - 60%. It can get much higher than that for the top players near the end of an event when they are dialed in on the break and running out a lot. It can also be influenced by matches involving a strong player and a weak player. A very lopsided match in a winner-breaks format obviously leads to a very high "breaker-won-game" percentage.
Despite the fact that the stats sometimes seem to indicate that it is no great advantage to be breaking, I doubt that many top players would want to give the break to an opponent coming down the stretch in a big event.
RBC
Deceased
I seem to recall a magazine article written many years ago, like 20 or so, that put the breaker win percentage below 50%. I seem to remember 45 or 47%, or something like that. I thought it strange, but it did make sense at the time.
In today's world, at pro level events, I would expect it to be at least 55%. The break has become one of the most important shots of the game. Back in the old days, they just racked and hit it hard hoping something would go in. Now, they know what every little gap will do, and where every ball is going before they hit it at all. It truly is a knowledge and skill that will help them win games.
Every edge counts!
Royce
In today's world, at pro level events, I would expect it to be at least 55%. The break has become one of the most important shots of the game. Back in the old days, they just racked and hit it hard hoping something would go in. Now, they know what every little gap will do, and where every ball is going before they hit it at all. It truly is a knowledge and skill that will help them win games.
Every edge counts!
Royce
I dont play much 9 or 10 ball but I know in one pocket when im breaking I win 70% of the games I break. But im actually just a great player. Lol
Here are the numbers from the two most recent big tournaments listed:
2014 CSI Invitational 8-Ball Championship:
breaker made a ball and did not foul: 71%
breaker won the game: 64%
2014 WPA World 9-Ball Championship:
breaker made a ball and did not foul: 89%
breaker won the game: 61%
These numbers show a significant advantage to breaking.
Having control of the table after the break is a big advantage, especially in 8-ball. Obviously, in 9-ball you are less likely to have an open shot or easy safety after the break. With control after the break, the percentage of games won by the breaker were:
8-ball: 79%
9-ball: 66%
These numbers might not be as high as some people might think, but they still represent significant advantages.
Thanks again to AtLarge for compiling all of these numbers. They are very interesting and revealing.
Regards,
Dave
might be the way our mind works
Dave,
I think things seem a little smaller because of the way our mind works, or mine does anyway, just automatically going up from fifty-fifty. Looking at the whole picture makes the advantage seem far more significant.
8-ball: 79% Lost 21%
9-ball: 66% Lost 34%
When we look at both sides of the equation that win percentage looks a whole lot bigger doesn't it? Even that measly 66% is two-thirds of the time or in other words they win twice as often as they lose. Eight ball they win roughly four times out of five making a good break a huge advantage. Eight ball in particular, the breaker is in control of his fate.
If we look at these numbers it is easy to see that if we want to determine the best player at the moment regardless of the break format we choose, the races need to be much longer. Not going to happen particularly in tournaments but that is where longer races are needed most. Either that or some rules changes or a move to a different game.
I don't know what rule changes or game would work but pretty obvious that winner breaks is a cakewalk, loser breaks is a toss up with two skilled players, and alternate breaks are much like loser breaks, a toss up. Since tiny changes in ball layout may have more to do with defeating the breaker than skill of the opponent, luck seems to be the major factor in winning when talking about two highly skilled players.
I think it was Rodney Morris who got whitewashed when he lost the lag and his opponent ran out the set without him shooting again in a winner break format. When somebody asked him how he did he said, "I dogged the lag!" Seems like there was a lot more truth to that than most realize.
A debt is certainly owed to atlarge. With real numbers to work with some interesting conclusions. Gotta take another look at Einstein nine and other deviants of the game. Eight ball may have a simple fix, run the balls in order. :thumbup:
Hu
Dave,
I think things seem a little smaller because of the way our mind works, or mine does anyway, just automatically going up from fifty-fifty. Looking at the whole picture makes the advantage seem far more significant.
8-ball: 79% Lost 21%
9-ball: 66% Lost 34%
When we look at both sides of the equation that win percentage looks a whole lot bigger doesn't it? Even that measly 66% is two-thirds of the time or in other words they win twice as often as they lose. Eight ball they win roughly four times out of five making a good break a huge advantage. Eight ball in particular, the breaker is in control of his fate.
If we look at these numbers it is easy to see that if we want to determine the best player at the moment regardless of the break format we choose, the races need to be much longer. Not going to happen particularly in tournaments but that is where longer races are needed most. Either that or some rules changes or a move to a different game.
I don't know what rule changes or game would work but pretty obvious that winner breaks is a cakewalk, loser breaks is a toss up with two skilled players, and alternate breaks are much like loser breaks, a toss up. Since tiny changes in ball layout may have more to do with defeating the breaker than skill of the opponent, luck seems to be the major factor in winning when talking about two highly skilled players.
I think it was Rodney Morris who got whitewashed when he lost the lag and his opponent ran out the set without him shooting again in a winner break format. When somebody asked him how he did he said, "I dogged the lag!" Seems like there was a lot more truth to that than most realize.
A debt is certainly owed to atlarge. With real numbers to work with some interesting conclusions. Gotta take another look at Einstein nine and other deviants of the game. Eight ball may have a simple fix, run the balls in order. :thumbup:
Hu
55% winning advantage is HUGE in my book. Las Vegas was built on a 51.x winning advantage. I'll bet all day long on any player with a 55-45 odds split.
Hu -- You probably read what Dr. Dave wrote correctly, but I just want to make sure. The 79% (8-ball) and 66% (9-ball) figures in those two events are for the breaker winning the game given that he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul, i.e., he stayed at the table after the break. The overall breaker-won percentages for the streamed matches in those events were 64% and 61% (as Dr. Dave also showed).
Incidentally, both of these events used the Magic Rack. That accounts for the 89% stay-at-table percentage in the World 9-Ball. (And when you throw in the breaks on which they fouled but made a ball, the made-a-ball-on-the-break percentage was a ridiculous 97.6%). The high stay-at-table percentage with the Magic Rack in 9-ball means many more opportunities for the breaker to run out.
Thanks!
Thanks, I did realize that was when there was a successful break but few serious competitors are willing to put their fate in the hands of the other player. If the other player has a break working you are toast is what it amounts to, or seems to. Sooner or later they make a mistake and you are in control but that might not happen in one short set.
The break should be an important shot, maybe the most important shot, but it seems that it may have become far more important than I would like it to be. As a spectator I want to see both players shoot almost every game. As a player, I'll think long and hard about playing winner breaks!
Corey has been rewarded in several events over the years just because of his mastery of the break. I certainly don't blame him for nuking out the break and he did nothing against the rules. Regardless, it took a lot away from the event. I don't want events to be a breaking or lagging competition.
For pool to advance to the point at least fifty to a hundred pro's in the US can make a living just from competition it needs to be a spectator sport. Hard to figure out how to make it one.
Hu
Thanks, I did realize that was when there was a successful break but few serious competitors are willing to put their fate in the hands of the other player. If the other player has a break working you are toast is what it amounts to, or seems to. Sooner or later they make a mistake and you are in control but that might not happen in one short set.
The break should be an important shot, maybe the most important shot, but it seems that it may have become far more important than I would like it to be. As a spectator I want to see both players shoot almost every game. As a player, I'll think long and hard about playing winner breaks!
Corey has been rewarded in several events over the years just because of his mastery of the break. I certainly don't blame him for nuking out the break and he did nothing against the rules. Regardless, it took a lot away from the event. I don't want events to be a breaking or lagging competition.
For pool to advance to the point at least fifty to a hundred pro's in the US can make a living just from competition it needs to be a spectator sport. Hard to figure out how to make it one.
Hu
In case you are serious, I thought I'd give you something for comparison.
In the last 4 Derby City Classics plus the two Southern Classics, the breaker won 60% (117 out of 194) of the one-pocket games that I watched on stream (in a total of 48 races to 3).
[Caveat -- the numbers are small and the variation is large from event to event.]
Edit -- Upon review, looks like the stats above should be 58% (114 of 197) for 49 races to 3.
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great stats. I do think that the person breaking in one pocket has a way higher percentage of winning. thats if both players play the same speed. Example if efren is playing and APA 5 i guess the break percentage wouldnt matter at that point. because the apa guy would win like zero percent of the time .