Break Stats -- 2016 U.S. Open 9-Ball, Oct. 2016

[Jaden]

He had a game in between...

I just noticed the biggest package was 4 by Shane, but I could have sworn Jayson ran 5 (or at least 4) in his comeback against Chang. Because it was 10-4 or 10-5, and then after Shaw broke and missed the 3 Chang took his timeout. The commentators said it was a good idea since he hadn't been to the table in awhile.

It was all a blur, so honestly I don't remember for sure.

so it technically wasn't a package...

Jaden

 

[BeiberLvr]

so it technically wasn't a package...

Jaden

That make sense. Just happened so fast lol

 

[dr_dave]

FYI, I've been summarizing AtLarge stats for many years from all top 9-ball, 10-ball, and 8-ball pro tournaments. All of the summaries can be found in concise tabulated form (with links to all of AtLarge's posts) here:

pro tournament break statistics summaries

Enjoy,
Dave

I compared these stats with your findings from the 2012 US Open. Shane also won that year, but one of the big differences is that 3 balls only had to go past the side pocket or be pocketed.

http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=293041


Now you did have more games logged in 2012, but here are some comparisons.

Legal Break

2016 - 57%
2012 - 62%

Breaker Won the Game

2016 - 54%
2012 - 55%

Break and Run

2016 - 23%
2012 - 23%


And for fun, I also compared these with the 2013 Turning Stone that Shane also won. Difference there is they use old school racking rules. Wooden rack, only 4 balls to a rail, 1 on the spot.

http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=303698

Legal Break

2016 - 57%
2013 TS - 58%

Breaker Won the Game

2016 - 54%
2013 TS - 51%

Break and Run

2016 - 23%
2013 TS - 19%

 

[CreeDo]

Always look forward to the stats after every big event... surprising how little difference it's made with all the little changes like shrinking the break box, changing the rack, moving the rack, etc.

The single biggest change in stats was when they moved the rack up (9 on the spot) in 2014... they were still using wooden triangles too... for just that one year, the % of making a ball on the break dropped 10%. And I think runouts dropped like 3% too. The very next year those stats were back to normal. So if anyone has to play in an event with new break rules, they probably better drop everything and practice that new break nonstop... a big chunk of the field won't be prepared.

I was a little surprised to see the balls make percentage drop by 5% compared to last year, when virtually everything was the same. 5% doesn't sound like much, but it's a bigger fluctuation than most years (other than 2014 when everyone was caught off guard). Wonder what that was about?

 

[bicki]

One huge thank you to AtLarge!!! I love that stuff. thanks for these work man. This is pool history...

 

[bad_hit]

If there were nothing else on this forum I would still come here just to see AtLarge's posts. Such good stuff, thank you!

 

[AtLarge]

...I was a little surprised to see the balls make percentage drop by 5% compared to last year, when virtually everything was the same. 5% doesn't sound like much, but it's a bigger fluctuation than most years (other than 2014 when everyone was caught off guard). Wonder what that was about?

It was about illegal breaks.

The big change this year was basing the 3-point rule for a legal break on the head string rather than the side pockets. That raised the percentage of illegal breaks significantly -- from 4% of all breaks last year to 20% this year. In the category of made at least one ball and did not foul, the illegal breaks rose from 3% of that category last year to 14% this year.

Last year, the breaker made at least one ball and did not foul 64% of the time. But some of those breaks were illegal. Removing the illegals to get to successful breaks, we had a successful break rate of 62%.

This year the comparable numbers were 66% including the illegals (up a bit from last year) and 57% without the illegals.

Hence the overall reduction in successful breaks from 62% to 57%.

 

[BeiberLvr]

Ooo Ooo *raises hand*, Mr. At Large, I have a question!!

For the illegal breaks:

Do you know how many of them had two balls made on the break?

 

[AtLarge]

... Do you have breaker won game stats for individual players? I think top breakers like Jayson and Shane would show much high break won % compared to the poor breakers. ...

... Yes, I can do the stats for the individual players in the streamed matches I watched. Most of the players are not on the stream much, though. For this event, however, my stats include SVB 4 times, Chang 5 times, Shaw 5 times, and Alcaide 4 times. So I'll do some stats on them later. ...

The 24 matches I tracked involved 26 different players. 15 of them appeared just once, 6 appeared twice, 1 appeared three times, 2 four times (Van Boening and Alcaide), and 2 five times (Chang and Shaw). Here are some stats for each of the 4 players who appeared at least 4 times..

Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul):

Van Boening -- 78% (29 of 37)
Chang -- 51% (27 of 53)
Shaw -- 74% (37 of 50)
Alcaide -- 53% (20 of 38)
4-player total -- 63% (113 of 178)
Other 22 players -- 52% (127 of 244)
All 26 players -- 57% (240 of 422)​

Breaker won the game:

Van Boening -- 68% (25 of 37)
Chang -- 57% (30 of 53)
Shaw -- 56% (28 of 50)
Alcaide -- 58% (22 of 38)
4-player total -- 59% (105 of 178)
Other 22 players -- 50% (122 of 244)
All 26 players -- 54% (227 of 422)​

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:

Van Boening -- 46% (17 of 37)
Chang -- 19% (10 of 53)
Shaw -- 32% (16 of 50)
Alcaide -- 18% (7 of 38)
4-player total -- 28% (50 of 178)
Other 22 players -- 19% (46 of 244)
All 26 players -- 23% (96 of 422)​

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:

Van Boening -- 59% (17 of 29)
Chang -- 37% (10 of 27)
Shaw -- 43% (16 of 37)
Alcaide -- 35% (7 of 20)
4-player total -- 44% (50 of 113)
Other 22 players -- 36% (46 of 127)
All 26 players -- 40% (96 of 240)​

 

[AtLarge]

Ooo Ooo *raises hand*, Mr. At Large, I have a question!!

For the illegal breaks:

Do you know how many of them had two balls made on the break?

Distribution of the 86 illegal breaks in the 24 streamed matches I tracked (422 games, with 4 games in those matches not tracked):

• Wet and no foul -- 38 (1 ball 30 times, 2 balls 8 times)
• Fouled -- 5 (dry 3 times, 1 ball once, unknown number of balls once )
• Dry and no foul -- 43

 

[spartan]

The 24 matches I tracked involved 26 different players. 15 of them appeared just once, 6 appeared twice, 1 appeared three times, 2 four times (Van Boening and Alcaide), and 2 five times (Chang and Shaw). Here are some stats for each of the 4 players who appeared at least 4 times..

Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul):

• Van Boening -- 78% (29 of 37)
  Chang -- 51% (27 of 53)
  Shaw -- 74% (37 of 50)
  Alcaide -- 53% (20 of 38)
  4-player total -- 63% (113 of 178)
  Other 22 players -- 52% (127 of 244)
  All 26 players -- 57% (240 of 422)

Breaker won the game:

• Van Boening -- 68% (25 of 37)
  Chang -- 57% (30 of 53)
  Shaw -- 56% (28 of 50)
  Alcaide -- 58% (22 of 38)
  4-player total -- 59% (105 of 178)
  Other 22 players -- 50% (122 of 244)
  All 26 players -- 54% (227 of 422)

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:

• Van Boening -- 46% (17 of 37)
  Chang -- 19% (10 of 53)
  Shaw -- 32% (16 of 50)
  Alcaide -- 18% (7 of 38)
  4-player total -- 28% (50 of 178)
  Other 22 players -- 19% (46 of 244)
  All 26 players -- 23% (96 of 422)

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:

• Van Boening -- 59% (17 of 29)
  Chang -- 37% (10 of 27)
  Shaw -- 43% (16 of 37)
  Alcaide -- 35% (7 of 20)
  4-player total -- 44% (50 of 113)
  Other 22 players -- 36% (46 of 127)
  All 26 players -- 40% (96 of 240)

Thanks AtLarge

IMHO
1) average of break amongst top and weaker players shows no big advantage in break but when we look at stats of top players, it shows a bigger advantage of up to 10% over weaker players so the break is an advantage for top players but less so for weaker players
2) as expected your stats confirm that Shane and Shaw were top break performers though I am surprised at the big margin of 16%
Maybe I was looking at last few matches where quality of Shaw's break was better . But I also suspect with Shane's more complete game , he is better at getting out of tough racks than Shaw

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:
Van Boening -- 59% (17 of 29)
Shaw -- 43% (16 of 37)

 

[BeiberLvr]

Distribution of the 86 illegal breaks in the 24 streamed matches I tracked (422 games, with 4 games in those matches not tracked):

• Wet and no foul -- 38 (1 ball 30 times, 2 balls 8 times)
• Fouled -- 5 (dry 3 times, 1 ball once, unknown number of balls once )
• Dry and no foul -- 43

Well I was going to suggest keep the 3 point rule, but make it a legal break if the player makes two balls.

But it doesn't seem to have happened enough times. At least on the stream table. I wonder how much it happened on the outside tables. AtLarge, I think we have to start paying you to do on-site analysis.

Great job and thanks for your help!

 

[barrymuch90]

Thank u AtLarge u know I love n appreciate ur stats n stats for pool in general it makes the game much more professional and gives the public a way to compare all things pool without knowing anything(numbers don't lie)

But for me the stat that jumped out was the comparison of different years n even other formats for the few other tournaments some included. In my opinion the numbers were very similar and with the extreme opposition and negativity towards the new break format the comparison shows that whatever they planned to achieve did not really work. So without changing anything for the better, all the new format seemed to do was confuse everyone including players,commentators, and even some officials. Besides the confusion it seemed as if no one really was fond of the rule/format and since there was no real change in results, or whatever they hoped to change by introducing this format, I think it's very obvious to go back to the more standard and common break rules/format. Whatever regular format they go back to will instantly satisfy the majority of people that opposed the new rule, eliminate any confusion if they go with the classic format, and allow any non pool playing viewer to better understand what's going on.

I'm reading/typing in my work truck outside of Home Depot without proofreading so I apologize if this is unreadable or riddled with errors especially this thread lol but still I think it's important to avoid trying to change a simple game of 9 ball. It's a great classic easy to undrrstand game at its basic form and should remain that way to preserve these qualities. Obviously it's not the perfect game especially for the pros but I love watching good old fashioned smash em up and hit n hope slop the 9 in and win 9 ball. It makes for such an entertaining game and that's truly what the sport lacks as far as non pool players are concerned. If u don't agree watch the mosconi cup lol.

Anyways thanks again AtLarge YOU DA MAN

 

[barrymuch90]

The 24 matches I tracked involved 26 different players. 15 of them appeared just once, 6 appeared twice, 1 appeared three times, 2 four times (Van Boening and Alcaide), and 2 five times (Chang and Shaw). Here are some stats for each of the 4 players who appeared at least 4 times..

Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul):

• Van Boening -- 78% (29 of 37)
  Chang -- 51% (27 of 53)
  Shaw -- 74% (37 of 50)
  Alcaide -- 53% (20 of 38)
  4-player total -- 63% (113 of 178)
  Other 22 players -- 52% (127 of 244)
  All 26 players -- 57% (240 of 422)

Breaker won the game:

• Van Boening -- 68% (25 of 37)
  Chang -- 57% (30 of 53)
  Shaw -- 56% (28 of 50)
  Alcaide -- 58% (22 of 38)
  4-player total -- 59% (105 of 178)
  Other 22 players -- 50% (122 of 244)
  All 26 players -- 54% (227 of 422)

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:

• Van Boening -- 46% (17 of 37)
  Chang -- 19% (10 of 53)
  Shaw -- 32% (16 of 50)
  Alcaide -- 18% (7 of 38)
  4-player total -- 28% (50 of 178)
  Other 22 players -- 19% (46 of 244)
  All 26 players -- 23% (96 of 422)

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:

• Van Boening -- 59% (17 of 29)
  Chang -- 37% (10 of 27)
  Shaw -- 43% (16 of 37)
  Alcaide -- 35% (7 of 20)
  4-player total -- 44% (50 of 113)
  Other 22 players -- 36% (46 of 127)
  All 26 players -- 40% (96 of 240)

This is a great stat and out of the four players it shows how much better Shane actually was,at least as far as breaking and run outs are concerned. Not to mention these were the 3best players as far as this tournament was concerned

 

[AtLarge]

... Also, do you know if the numbers changed as the week went on and players learned the break better?

Here's a day-by-day listing of some key break results of the 2016 U.S. Open 9-Ball Championship. The stats are for the 24 matches I tracked, which began on the afternoon of Day 3 of the event -- 4 matches on Day 3 (Tuesday), 6 matches on Days 4 and 6, 5 matches on Day 5, and 3 matches on Day 7.

Successful breaks -- breaker broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul:

Day 3 -- 50% (37 of 74)
Day 4 -- 53% (51 of 96)
Day 5 -- 58% (46 of 79)
Day 6 -- 53% (58 of 110)
Day 7 -- 76% (48 of 63)
Total -- 57% (240 of 422)​

Breaker won the game:

Day 3 -- 50% (37 of 74)
Day 4 -- 53% (51 of 96)
Day 5 -- 56% (44 of 79)
Day 6 -- 53% (58 of 110)
Day 7 -- 59% (37 of 63)
Total -- 54% (227 of 422)​

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:

Day 3 -- 15% (11 of 74)
Day 4 -- 18% (17 of 96)
Day 5 -- 19% (15 of 79)
Day 6 -- 25% (28 of 110)
Day 7 -- 40% (25 of 63)
Total -- 23% (96 of 422)​

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks:

Day 3 -- 50% (11 of 37)
Day 4 -- 53% (17 of 51)
Day 5 -- 58% (15 of 46)
Day 6 -- 53% (28 of 58)
Day 7 -- 76% (25 of 48)
Total -- 57% (96 of 240)​