Hello, folks; I'm back. The snowstorm here in New England (and elsewhere) a week ago today knocked out my home's power for 5 1/2 days and my phone/TV/internet for 6 1/2 days. The destruction to trees caused by wet snow on leaves, and the resulting effects on power lines, were just amazing.
But speaking of breaks... I promised two weeks ago that I would try to refine the info a little bit. In looking at my notes again, I spotted a few errors in what I had previously posted -- one more game in which the breaker made a ball on the break and did not foul (on Day 4), one more game won by the breaker (on Day 3), and three more break-and-run games (one on each of Days 3, 6, and 7). I have edited Post #1 with these corrections. They had little effect on the overall results, which I'll restate here for completeness:
For all 39 streamed matches combined (660 games), the breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 62% of the time, won 58% of the games, and broke and ran 21% of the games.
So we know from the above how often the breaker made a ball and how often he won the game. But how closely did the one affect the other? Here's a little more detailed breakdown of the 660 streamed games.
Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
Breaker won the game: 267 (40% of the 660 games)
Breaker lost the game: 139 (21%)
Breaker fouled on the break:
Breaker won the game: 18 (3%)
Breaker lost the game: 31 (5%)
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
Breaker won the game: 97 (15%)
Breaker lost the game: 108 (16%)
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 58% (382) of all 660 games,
He won 66% (267 of 406) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
He won 37% (18 of 49) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
He won 47% (97 of 205) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
He won 45% (115 of 254) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.
