Coin Flip Odds

[StevenPWaldon]

I played 7 sets tonight with a friend. To start the first set, he was about to flip when I had that sinking feeling. You see, for some reason I have lost the overwhelming majority of coin flips over the past 6-8 weeks. My friend looks at my face and asks why I look like I already lost the flip, even though the coin is still in his hand. I explain my misfortune with the flip. He laughs. He's not a believer.

He flips. "Heads," I call. Tails, it lands.

Over the course of the next 6 straight sets/flips, I lost every single one.

After the 5th consecutive ill-placed call, my friend advises me to stray from my heads-only strategy when calling the flip. He's right (I mean not really, but still). So he flips. "Tails," I exclaim. Heads, it finally lands. I laugh. He laughs. He's finally a believer.

Am I cursed? Has anyone out there lost more than 7 consecutive coin flips?

And if I *am* cursed, does anyone have a double-headed coin they can lend me for a while? One thing's for sure: in the meantime, my opponent and I will be lagging for the break!

 

[jimmyg]

I played 7 sets tonight with a friend. To start the first set, he was about to flip when I had that sinking feeling. You see, for some reason I have lost the overwhelming majority of coin flips over the past 6-8 weeks. My friend looks at my face and asks why I look like I already lost the flip, even though the coin is still in his hand. I explain my misfortune with the flip. He laughs. He's not a believer.

He flips. "Heads," I call. Tails, it lands.

Over the course of the next 6 straight sets/flips, I lost every single one.

After the 5th consecutive ill-placed call, my friend advises me to stray from my heads-only strategy when calling the flip. He's right (I mean not really, but still). So he flips. "Tails," I exclaim. Heads, it finally lands. I laugh. He laughs. He's finally a believer.

Am I cursed? Has anyone out there lost more than 7 consecutive coin flips?

And if I *am* cursed, does anyone have a double-headed coin they can lend me for a while? One thing's for sure: in the meantime, my opponent and I will be lagging for the break!

Just a long bad luck streak, nothing more.

The odds of calling a coin toss correctly are 50/50 each time, regardless of how many heads or tails have previously come up in a row....the coin has no memory.

Stay away from Fatboy until this passes.

Jim

 

[TX Poolnut]

You should buy a double-sided coin just to fool around with your friend. Make it 8 times in a row next time.

 

[StevenPWaldon]

Yeah, I'm fully aware about the possibilities regardless of previous outcomes. It's a bit like how the casinos made a killing at roulette when they started having electronic displays showing the past dozen or so numbers/colors. When, for example, red was hit 5+ times in a row people would notice and bet en masse on black... only to have another red show up. Such is the logic we fool ourselves into.

At this point it's just become funny. We kept laughing each time I lost. I'm sure the table adjacent thought we were crazy.... they may have been right.

Just a long bad luck streak, nothing more.

The odds of calling a coin toss correctly are 50/50 each time, regardless of how many heads or tails have previously come up in a row....the coin has no memory.

Stay away from Fatboy until this passes.

Jim

 

[StevenPWaldon]

I can see it now: "Bet you $100 I can correctly call 8 flips in a row!"

You should buy a double-sided coin just to fool around with your friend. Make it 8 times in a row next time.

 

[Jaden]

That depends on how you look at it....

Just a long bad luck streak, nothing more.

The odds of calling a coin toss correctly are 50/50 each time, regardless of how many heads or tails have previously come up in a row....the coin has no memory.

Stay away from Fatboy until this passes.

Jim

Yes, statistically on paper, every time you toss a coin in the air, there is a fifty/fifty chance that it will land heads or tails......; however, that is not the reality of it. Also statistically, in the long hall if you flip the coin 10,000 times there will be a 99.9 percent chance that there will be between 4950-5050 heads or tails. so if after 7000 flips you have 2500 heads, then statistically there is a greater liklihood that it will be heads on any given flip until it gets closer to even. If you've only flipped the coin ten times the chances are less but they are still greater to hit the opposite of whichever is in the lead.

Another way to illustrate it is to describe how counting cards in blackjack works. If the count is plus fifteen, there is still a 1 in 52 chance of any individual card falling out of the deck, but there's closer to a 75% chance that it will be a 10 or higher. Of course you casn argue that it is not a valid comparison because there are a finite amount of cards in the deck, but it IS still the same priniciple, there are also a finite number of possibilities as to which side of the coin it will land on, of course it could always land on its' side.

Jaden

 

[StevenPWaldon]

I'm not so sure the blackjack analogy works with the coin flip. Even with an 8-deck shoe on +15, the odds are generated on the past and not the future; i.e., what cards have been played. In a coin flip situation, past events have no influence on the next flip. It's not as if the coin only has so many "heads" left in it until it finally turns tails.

Yes, statistically on paper, every time you toss a coin in the air, there is a fifty/fifty chance that it will land heads or tails......; however, that is not the reality of it. Also statistically, in the long hall if you flip the coin 10,000 times there will be a 99.9 percent chance that there will be between 4950-5050 heads or tails. so if after 7000 flips you have 2500 heads, then statistically there is a greater liklihood that it will be heads on any given flip until it gets closer to even. If you've only flipped the coin ten times the chances are less but they are still greater to hit the opposite of whichever is in the lead.

Another way to illustrate it is to describe how counting cards in blackjack works. If the count is plus fifteen, there is still a 1 in 52 chance of any individual card falling out of the deck, but there's closer to a 75% chance that it will be a 10 or higher.

Jaden

 

[gwjackal]

This is easy to answer send me five bucks via paypal and I will send you a Chuck Norris coin. You always win with it no matter what your coin can kick your oppents a$$.... I'll post pics later...lol

 

[punter]

so if after 7000 flips you have 2500 heads, then statistically there is a greater liklihood that it will be heads on any given flip until it gets closer to even.

Another way to illustrate it is to describe how counting cards in blackjack works. If the count is plus fifteen, there is still a 1 in 52 chance of any individual card falling out of the deck, but there's closer to a 75% chance that it will be a 10 or higher.

Jaden

Sorry, don't agree here, each coin flip is an independent trial. Past flips don't influence future flips. Counting cards on the other hand, is dependent on what cards have been removed and which ones remain. If you flip 20 heads in a row, the odds on the next flip is still 50/50.

 

[StevenPWaldon]

Holy cow I hope you're serious. I mean, $5 for a CHUCK NORRIS COIN!?!? After I google to see if anyone else sells such a thing (and if it's cheaper after shipping) I'm going to PayPal you right away. PM me your PayPal email to send it to. This too good to pass up!

Noel Bensurto, watch out! Chuck Norris is on my side!

This is easy to answer send me five bucks via paypal and I will send you a Chuck Norris coin. You always win with it no matter what your coin can kick your oppents a$$.... I'll post pics later...lol

 

[Jaden]

notice I had edited my post

I'm not so sure the blackjack analogy works with the coin flip. Even with an 8-deck shoe on +15, the odds are generated on the past and not the future; i.e., what cards have been played. In a coin flip situation, past events have no influence on the next flip. It's not as if the coin only has so many "heads" left in it until it finally turns tails.

I had edited my post in between when you read it and when you posted it because I sm psychic and knew you would post that....

It doesn't matter, the analogy isn't necessary... It stands by itself. Because there is a finite number of outcomes (in a coinflip, two, with a third being that it land on it's side) there is a predictable outcome for a given number of throws. So if you throw it twenty times, there is a statistical average for the number of times that it should land on heads and tails. Because of this, if you know the number of throws already thrown and the number of known results, you can predict what the next outcome will be with a greater than fifty percent probability because the law of averages states that in the long hall, statistical abberations aside, there will be fifty percent heads and fifty percent tails.

Jaden

 

[gwjackal]

Oh I'm serious I have one myself, I'll post pics when I get off work for all to see. I can get any coin made here in korea.....

check da pm

 

[Jaden]

you're wrong and right....

Sorry, don't agree here, each coin flip is an independent trial. Past flips don't influence future flips. Counting cards on the other hand, is dependent on what cards have been removed and which ones remain. If you flip 20 heads in a row, the odds on the next flip is still 50/50.

Yes the odds on the next flip are 50/50, but you can use statistical averages to havea better than 50% chance of determining the next result. The larger number of flips and the larger variance there is the higher percentage of predictibility there is.

Jaden

 

[punter]

Yes the odds on the next flip are 50/50, but you can use statistical averages to havea better than 50% chance of determining the next coin. The larger number of flips and the larger variance there is the higher percentage of predictibility there is.

Jaden

You are still ignoring the fact that past flips don't influence future flips.

 

[StevenPWaldon]

You're serious!? I totally google'ed Chuck Norris coins but found nothing.

Oh I'm serious I have one myself, I'll post pics when I get off work for all to see. I can get any coin made here in korea.....

check da pm

 

[gwjackal]

You can't predict something that only has two out comes no matter how you look at it with the third being it could land on it's side. I dosen't matter how many times you actually flip the coin each flip is independent of the last and the next.

However you can compile average's of flips to determine an individual coin's aptitude to land on one side or the other for future flips....

 

[jimmyg]

I had edited my post in between when you read it and when you posted it because I sm psychic and knew you would post that....

It doesn't matter, the analogy isn't necessary... It stands by itself. Because there is a finite number of outcomes (in a coinflip, two, with a third being that it land on it's side) there is a predictable outcome for a given number of throws. So if you throw it twenty times, there is a statistical average for the number of times that it should land on heads and tails. Because of this, if you know the number of throws already thrown and the number of known results, you can predict what the next outcome will be with a greater than fifty percent probability because the law of averages states that in the long hall, statistical abberations aside, there will be fifty percent heads and fifty percent tails.

Jaden

I think that we're talking about two seperate statistical averages here.

Yes, it remains true that in a 50/50 situation over a prolonged period of attempts, say 5,000 tosses, theoretically you will likely average aproximately 2500 heads and 2500 tails. And if that doesn't happen in 5,000 tosses, perhaps it will at 10,000 tosses, if not then, eventually it will.

But on any single toss it is still 50/50, regardless of previous tosses.

Jim

 

[StevenPWaldon]

OK, this may be my last post with actual thought:

The coin flip as it's understood (i.e. in theory) may be different to it's experience (i.e. in person). This may actually negate both Jaden and Punter's posts: what if some coins are more likely to hit heads (or tails) more than tails (or heads)?

This would lead to two conclusions (or at least the first two that came to me in my drunken state):

1.) Past influences will/do not influence future occurrences in the flip (sorry Jaden) within any degree of predictability (if at all)
2.) Given that the coin has a tendency to land on one side more than the other, despite past occurrences having no influence on future events, it certainly points to a pattern, one which may be statistically significant. So in fact, data from previous coin flips may lead to greater predictability due to a false assumption that a coin flip is 50/50.

... and yes, this post is TOTAL BS. I feel like I'm back in college writing some horrible paper late at night after a bottle of wine.

 

[Jaden]

It doesn't matter....

You are still ignoring the fact that past flips don't influence future flips.

I'm not ignoring it..... It just doesn't matter. So what you're telling me is that you think that if you've flipped a coin 10,000 times and it's landed 7500 times on heads, that there's an equal chance that it will hit heads?

The answer to that question is yes, but I can predict more accurately than 50% what the next outcome will be, or rather more accurately, I can predict more accurately what the next 100 flips will be, because they will be more likely to balance out in the end.

you're not following the logic because you're stuck in a paradigm of thought. One, you're stating that there is a true randomness to the coinflip, which is a ridiculous notion in and of itself. I have proven this with controlled conditions in high school playing quarters and winning 10 plus bucks in 30 minutes consistently. Two, you are assuming that the idea that there IS a 50% chance is farsical. It is only an idea(or thought form or something on paper) that states that a coin flip is fifty percent. It is also only an idea that it is statistically predictable, therefore, the actual flip doesn't matter, only the rhought form of the predictability.

I don't blame you if you can't follow this, it is high level philosophy and if you have trouble grasping the truth of the concept behind the quote "I think therefore I am" then this will most probably fly right over your head.

Jaden

p.s. Sorry to sound a little condescending in this post, but truth is truth and if we are accepting the paradigm that a coin flip is truly 50%, then it is just as valid to state that given a certain number of throws and outcomes, it is statistically predictable what the next throw will result in because neither idea is what is actually occurring in reality

 

[gwjackal]

StevenPWaldon
You're serious!? I totally google'ed Chuck Norris coins but found nothing.

that's because we had them made locally... It's a military challenge coin tradition kinda thing used for commendation or drinking..you pick..

I will post pics in about 6 hrs to prove it does exist.... I designed it(I wish)..lol...