Coin Flip Odds
- Thread starter StevenPWaldon
- Start date
Guys, Jaden is just having fun at your expense. I hope to dear god he is, at least.
In my Tuesday league, we've lost 12 coin flips in a row. That's 1 in 4096. My Thursday league, we're up to 6 losses in a row (a measly 1 in 64).
All I know is the next time we actually win a flip, much to the other team's bewilderment, we'll be celebrating like we just won the super bowl.
In my Tuesday league, we've lost 12 coin flips in a row. That's 1 in 4096. My Thursday league, we're up to 6 losses in a row (a measly 1 in 64).
All I know is the next time we actually win a flip, much to the other team's bewilderment, we'll be celebrating like we just won the super bowl.
I seen a study that a group of college kids did some years ago. If i remember they spliy into two groups and flipped the coins 10,000 each the results were almost the same the numbers were around 50-50 something like 4950-5050, but what they did find is there was a great probability that there would be a run of 9 consective either heads or tales. If i remember correct both groups of students got almost the same results.
flipping coins is a "independant trials process" the past results have no nearing on what the next flip will be, Roullette is the same. Or 21 with a auto shuffler that shuffles the cards everyhand.
Black jack or 21 as its called in the casino biz is a "Dependant trials process", which means that after any number of cards are seen from one to 8 decks or more, you have some information about whats left in the deck, therefore what the next hand will show is "dependant" on which cards are out of the deck.
its simple as that. I will call my mathimation in, he has a Phd in statstics/math and I cant even spell it right, he can clearly explain this. i'll call him later and get him to write a report to support that each flip is a 50/50 prop bet-something Tooth appearantly is scared of.
Black jack or 21 as its called in the casino biz is a "Dependant trials process", which means that after any number of cards are seen from one to 8 decks or more, you have some information about whats left in the deck, therefore what the next hand will show is "dependant" on which cards are out of the deck.
its simple as that. I will call my mathimation in, he has a Phd in statstics/math and I cant even spell it right, he can clearly explain this. i'll call him later and get him to write a report to support that each flip is a 50/50 prop bet-something Tooth appearantly is scared of.
Jaden said:
Punter is correct. Your thinking is in error. Every event is mutually exclusive. There is no memory, there is no increase in probability for either result to bring the end tally "in line" with an expected outcome over the entire set of trials.
Kelly
Kelly_Guy said:
misconceptions like that one guy thinking that more heads will come up after a while to even things out(sure it will happen but you cant ever tell when, you just have to ride it out) but confused people lose some $$$, sick gamblers like my ex girl gamble for other reasons not $$$,
This is why they build casions, they dont build them to give away $$$, i have commuted between LA, Vegas since 93, is funny to me on a friday night flight to Vegas listening to all these people chattering about their angle or edge and how they are gonna use to bust the joints, it never ends. People never wisen up, my mathmaticion works part time for me and full time for a big property, was telling me the things they are devloping to bust the gamblers(i use that word lightly) stone cold suckers is the right word, is amazing. With computer modeling they can make people feel like they have a better shot at winning when its the oppsite its a blend of psychology and math-litterly a secret formula not shared to other competor casion's, you get less gamble for the dollar but they make it feel like you have a better chance of winning and increases the time people gamble when they come here amd increases the amount they lose, but the trick to keeping comming back is making feel they were so close to a big score it justified the loss, positive re-enforcment theory is what its called(I think) but thats the con, like 3 card monte-you just know where the Red card is! Its for stone cold suckers. and they are still tightning up the rules, I hope they dont get too greedy Vegas will really be in trouble.
the faster they can bust people the lower the payroll is for them, the larger the drop/rake is and then the share holders are happy when profits go up-believe me these guys arnt making many mistakes, single deck 21 with a lazy dealer who will keep dealing deep because they dont want to shuffel can be beat, I have done it and am banned from that game in Vegas, there are only 5 or 6 single deck tables in Vegas I know of, and they watch them closely and they are low limit tables, they are alot of them in Reno-I have talked to a friend about going.
they fired 33% of the pit bosses at Paris because before they watched 4 games now its 6 games my friend was one of them. Pit bosses make about $50,000 year-the dealers make more-its a shit job i have several friends who are/were pit bosses. Vegas is a joke.
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Jaden said:
I'm glad I am reading what your saying because I could not see what your saying otherwise.
I will only say this once. The odds on a coin flip are not exactly 50-50. It is more like 52.5-47.5 Tails. There is a reason for this that I won't go into here. Some of you may already be aware of this.
Try flipping a quarter 100 times on a pool table. Watch what happens. I'm betting Tails comes up a little more.
Try flipping a quarter 100 times on a pool table. Watch what happens. I'm betting Tails comes up a little more.
50:50
it is 50:50, there are only two possible outcomes... chance cannot determine what is heads or tails. there is no bias for either side. flip it 10,000 times, it will even out a little more.
thinking otherwise is like being one of those jackasses that come to a roulette payout board and see that "black" has hit the last 11 times ...so the next spin has to be "black" or has better odds of being black, right? WRONG... oh, the casinos love the morons who do bet on black though...JS
it is 50:50, there are only two possible outcomes... chance cannot determine what is heads or tails. there is no bias for either side. flip it 10,000 times, it will even out a little more.
thinking otherwise is like being one of those jackasses that come to a roulette payout board and see that "black" has hit the last 11 times ...so the next spin has to be "black" or has better odds of being black, right? WRONG... oh, the casinos love the morons who do bet on black though...JS
jay helfert said:
I was wondering when someone was going to point out this fact.
They really don't.punter said:
The chance of heads coming up again AFTER it has already come up 100 times is.... a flip of a coin.
Dice, rollettes and coins have no memory.
Winning Coin Flip Freebie For Az'ers
WHEN FLIPPING A COIN FOR SOMETHING, YES IT IS ALWAYS A 50/50 BET WITH A FAIR COIN, LET THE OTHER PERSON CALL HEADS OR TAILS AS STUDIES SHOW THAT PEOPLE CALL HEADS 80% OF THE TIME THUS PROVIDING YOU WITH A HUGE EDGE OVER THE LONG TERM.
WHEN FLIPPING A COIN FOR SOMETHING, YES IT IS ALWAYS A 50/50 BET WITH A FAIR COIN, LET THE OTHER PERSON CALL HEADS OR TAILS AS STUDIES SHOW THAT PEOPLE CALL HEADS 80% OF THE TIME THUS PROVIDING YOU WITH A HUGE EDGE OVER THE LONG TERM.
From the best of my knowledge flipping a coin will not yield a 50/50 result, it will favor slightly (not sure how slightly, obviously not greatly enough that you would notice the % over a small sample) towards the side that was face up when you flipped it.
Spinning a coin on a table top would yield a different result entirely, favoring one side over the other greatly.
As far as OP, what you're experiencing is, imo, nothing more than standard variance. Not a curse.
If you'd like to see a greater example of horrible variance you should watch me 6-12 table sngs on FTP.
Changing your call (heads or tails) will only add more variance (good or bad) so it will take even longer for the real %ages to even out, and if you run on the bad side of variance will make the 'bad run' even longer.
A solid coin-flipping strategy would be to either always call heads, or always call tails, theoretically. Personally I would go with the 'always call whatever side is facing up before the toss' theory.
All of this talk makes me want to start lagging :-\
Spinning a coin on a table top would yield a different result entirely, favoring one side over the other greatly.
As far as OP, what you're experiencing is, imo, nothing more than standard variance. Not a curse.
If you'd like to see a greater example of horrible variance you should watch me 6-12 table sngs on FTP.
Changing your call (heads or tails) will only add more variance (good or bad) so it will take even longer for the real %ages to even out, and if you run on the bad side of variance will make the 'bad run' even longer.
A solid coin-flipping strategy would be to either always call heads, or always call tails, theoretically. Personally I would go with the 'always call whatever side is facing up before the toss' theory.
All of this talk makes me want to start lagging :-\
