Fair? No way to sell a cue!
- Thread starter VonRhett
- Start date
IMO this thread is incredibly unnecessary. As stated by several people, IT DOESN'T MATTER if the seller buys tickets or not, his expected value DOES NOT CHANGE.
So what if I take my used Fury DL and post it up on the market for $1000 and someone buys it? Oh no, I screwed somebody out of $930? Business is a Darwinian world and so is the internet. Market price is what people are willing to pay for it, and if someone is dumb enough to pay $50 for 1/42 of a $1000 cue, then let them. A sucker is born every minute and thats how the world works. As said in the movie Rounders: "It's immoral to let a sucker keep his money".
gmcole said:
So what if I take my used Fury DL and post it up on the market for $1000 and someone buys it? Oh no, I screwed somebody out of $930? Business is a Darwinian world and so is the internet. Market price is what people are willing to pay for it, and if someone is dumb enough to pay $50 for 1/42 of a $1000 cue, then let them. A sucker is born every minute and thats how the world works. As said in the movie Rounders: "It's immoral to let a sucker keep his money".
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Monty Hall is Rolling in the Aisle
I have three comments.
1. It really doesn't matter who buys and who wins if the selection of the number is certifiably fair.
2. Nobody is getting ripped off, unless they either cannot multiply or don't have any idea what the cue is worth.
3. But some things just "feel" wrong even though they're not. My favorite is the Monty Hall proposition. Remember the game? A big prize (say a pair of matching Szamboti's) is behind one of three doors. Monty lets you pick one of the doors. Then Monty, who knows where the prize is, opens one of the other doors and its empty! He now asks you if you want to keep your door or switch to the other door. What should you do?
C'mom. I want to hear some answers before explaining the correct answer. What should you do? Keep your door? Switch to the other door? Or it doesn't matter?
I have three comments.
1. It really doesn't matter who buys and who wins if the selection of the number is certifiably fair.
2. Nobody is getting ripped off, unless they either cannot multiply or don't have any idea what the cue is worth.
3. But some things just "feel" wrong even though they're not. My favorite is the Monty Hall proposition. Remember the game? A big prize (say a pair of matching Szamboti's) is behind one of three doors. Monty lets you pick one of the doors. Then Monty, who knows where the prize is, opens one of the other doors and its empty! He now asks you if you want to keep your door or switch to the other door. What should you do?
C'mom. I want to hear some answers before explaining the correct answer. What should you do? Keep your door? Switch to the other door? Or it doesn't matter?
hmm, the Monty Hall dilema, can't remember
I seem to recall reading something a LONG time ago, about whether or not to switch doors in the Monty Hall scenario. For the life of me, right now I can't think of how it could matter, but my memory tells me that it does.
As far as raffles, I agree that the odds of winning do not change, but if someone is buying into a raffle with the understanding that it is only AZ members that are participating, then it should be that way.
I seem to recall reading something a LONG time ago, about whether or not to switch doors in the Monty Hall scenario. For the life of me, right now I can't think of how it could matter, but my memory tells me that it does.
As far as raffles, I agree that the odds of winning do not change, but if someone is buying into a raffle with the understanding that it is only AZ members that are participating, then it should be that way.
Just a thought......has it occurred to anyone that perhaps the only reason that the powers-that-be have suffered these raffles is their potential to bring in new members?
If raffles cease to have any redeeming value, such as bringing in new members, then it is a good possibility that the use for the bandwidth may find a better purpose elsewhere. In other words, no more Raffles section, and no more raffles.
Lisa
If raffles cease to have any redeeming value, such as bringing in new members, then it is a good possibility that the use for the bandwidth may find a better purpose elsewhere. In other words, no more Raffles section, and no more raffles.
Lisa
my observation: gmcole & shamadam are correct in their thinking:
let me express what i believe gmcole & shamadam said and i believe to be true:
for example:
1.) a sw @ real value at $2400 (30 x $80).
2.) the same sw @ raffle value for $3200 40 x $80).
and please note: that #1 above reflecting 30 x $80 = $2400 is the 'real sale value',
(and this is just for explanation purposes and example only).
here goes:
A.) Raffle Originator "states" 40 chances at $80 each (raffle value = $3200).
B.) Raffle Originator can sell only 30 chances to Az'ers for the 'real' sw value (as stated in #1 above) and knows he/she is good (At Worst) for the 'real value' @ $2400; while keeping 10 chances for him/her-self.
therefore; the Raffle Originator can get his/her full "real value" for the cue, while at the same time maintaining a 25% chance of:
getting the full "real value of the cue ($2400)" PLUS a 25% chance of also getting to keep the cue as well!!
that segues an Unbelievably Great Advantage to the Raffle Originator; i.e. he/she has a 25% chance (at NO DOLLAR LOSS) to not only get full value ($2400) for their sw, but additionally a 25% chance to Keep The Cue at an additional value of $2400.
i feel gmcole and shamadam are completely correct. and i also think that to date nobody was dishonest here and intended to do anything wrong, such as RackRunner.
further, i think the consensus here is correct:
i) all sales should be to Az'ers only, without any outside participation or Original Raffle person participation; and;
ii) and it would be prudent for all of us to accept raffles where only 'Real Values' are asked for.
if those precepts are not followed, the expression caveat emptor is a proper admonition; so be it, please suit yourself.
if my reasoning is in some error, I am sure I will be dutifully flamed!!!!
waiting for the flaming? (nonetheless, still luv ya'll)
smokey
gmcole said:
shamadam said:
let me express what i believe gmcole & shamadam said and i believe to be true:
for example:
1.) a sw @ real value at $2400 (30 x $80).
2.) the same sw @ raffle value for $3200 40 x $80).
and please note: that #1 above reflecting 30 x $80 = $2400 is the 'real sale value',
(and this is just for explanation purposes and example only).
here goes:
A.) Raffle Originator "states" 40 chances at $80 each (raffle value = $3200).
B.) Raffle Originator can sell only 30 chances to Az'ers for the 'real' sw value (as stated in #1 above) and knows he/she is good (At Worst) for the 'real value' @ $2400; while keeping 10 chances for him/her-self.
therefore; the Raffle Originator can get his/her full "real value" for the cue, while at the same time maintaining a 25% chance of:
getting the full "real value of the cue ($2400)" PLUS a 25% chance of also getting to keep the cue as well!!
that segues an Unbelievably Great Advantage to the Raffle Originator; i.e. he/she has a 25% chance (at NO DOLLAR LOSS) to not only get full value ($2400) for their sw, but additionally a 25% chance to Keep The Cue at an additional value of $2400.
i feel gmcole and shamadam are completely correct. and i also think that to date nobody was dishonest here and intended to do anything wrong, such as RackRunner.
further, i think the consensus here is correct:
i) all sales should be to Az'ers only, without any outside participation or Original Raffle person participation; and;
ii) and it would be prudent for all of us to accept raffles where only 'Real Values' are asked for.
if those precepts are not followed, the expression caveat emptor is a proper admonition; so be it, please suit yourself.
if my reasoning is in some error, I am sure I will be dutifully flamed!!!!
waiting for the flaming? (nonetheless, still luv ya'll)
smokey
smokey said:
TAP, TAP, TAP!!!!
smokey said:
But see, the fallacy in that argument is that the seller is "selling" the cue at 25% above market value and expect people to buy it. If people do buy it at that price, then he/she is losing an equal amount of value for the chance to win the cue rather than selling off those extra spaces.
Summary: I auction off a SW for 125% value. IF people buy into my auction, I could auction off 10 chances for $800. My chances of winning the auction is 25%, and 25% of $3200 is $800. Thus, there is no difference. Essentially, in an auction you are selling "parts" of the cue...and there is nothing wrong with buying your own products.
My take on Raffle-itis
You can lead a fool to wisdom, but you can't make him raffle.
Hear and you forget; see and you remember; raffle and you understand.
Your heart understands what your head cannot yet conceive; trust your raffle runner.
Life is like a sewer... what you get out of it depends on what raffle you are in.
Practice makes perfect, but nobody's perfect, so keep raffling.
It matters not what you do, as long as you are the best raffler.
Patience will come to those who've raffled.
Tread lightly cause raffle like bubble, one p r i c k all gone.
There are no short cuts to any place worth going, just more raffles.
You can lead a fool to wisdom, but you can't make him raffle.
Hear and you forget; see and you remember; raffle and you understand.
Your heart understands what your head cannot yet conceive; trust your raffle runner.
Life is like a sewer... what you get out of it depends on what raffle you are in.
Practice makes perfect, but nobody's perfect, so keep raffling.
It matters not what you do, as long as you are the best raffler.
Patience will come to those who've raffled.
Tread lightly cause raffle like bubble, one p r i c k all gone.
There are no short cuts to any place worth going, just more raffles.
8-Baller said:
Not really because the seller would most likely collect the minimum amount he'd take for it before buying his own slots. He'd be a moron not to.
Hey, I have $2,000 cue here but I'm willing to take $1800 for it. I'll start a raffle with 100 slots for 20 bucks apiece. Once I get the first 90 spots filled I'll buy the remaining 10. If my number doesn't hit that's cool because I got my minimum $1800 out of it. If my number does hit that's even better because I get my $1800 bucks *AND* I get to keep my cue and raffle it off again for another $1800 bucks.
MULLY
I don't think the second auction would go over very well though.
mullyman said:
No idiot would auction off the same cue twice ... even Cacacowboy would see through that. Unless ...
1) You find outside AZ venue to sell the cue .. like eBay or locally
2) If in AZ, you'll need to say something like "I got my favor cue back in a trade but unfortunately I need money and have I got a great deal for you .... "
More good information, and opinions.
SCCues said:
You should really get up to speed before putting in your $.02, SCCues.
Almost all of these raffles are decided using the powerball drawing, with the entry numbers chosen by the entrants.
Some of the other arguments here are valid, but this one is completely false.
-s
I think you miss the point. There could be 0 chance that a non-friend wins. Seller and friend agree that it was just to get the $ and they have.steev said:
Thanks for participating!
TOTAL BS, BTW!
jazz
A.) Why is this thread not in raffle sub-section???
B.) No idiot would auction off the same cue twice ... even Cacacowboy would see through that. Unless ...
1) You find outside AZ venue to sell the cue .. like eBay or locally. 2) If in AZ, you'll need to say something like "I got my favor cue back in a trade but unfortunately I need money and have I got a great deal for you .... "
c.) What is the thread link for this raffle???
so Jazz;
in the final analysis you disagree this should be here in this forum, then you have another and then even another comment/question?
that shows me you are a very alert and demanding fellow Az'er.
you caught me completely fully off guard.
good job...
smokey
A.) Why is this thread not in raffle sub-section???
B.) No idiot would auction off the same cue twice ... even Cacacowboy would see through that. Unless ...
1) You find outside AZ venue to sell the cue .. like eBay or locally. 2) If in AZ, you'll need to say something like "I got my favor cue back in a trade but unfortunately I need money and have I got a great deal for you .... "
c.) What is the thread link for this raffle???
so Jazz;
in the final analysis you disagree this should be here in this forum, then you have another and then even another comment/question?
that shows me you are a very alert and demanding fellow Az'er.
you caught me completely fully off guard.
good job...
smokey
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