Fargo Rate - Not Much Math Here

200 games is way overboard. More like 40 or 50 should be sufficient in typical situations. The law of large numbers and central limit theorem are a thing.

Anyway, if you want to know the math, here’s the math: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley–Terry_model
But the "Bradley-Terry model" is not Fargo, "A player needs to have played a minimum of 200 games to have an "established" Fargo Rating. This is the standard "robustness" requirement, and without it, the rating is considered "preliminary".
 
But the "Bradley-Terry model" is not Fargo, "A player needs to have played a minimum of 200 games to have an "established" Fargo Rating. This is the standard "robustness" requirement, and without it, the rating is considered "preliminary".
Fargo is just an implementation of the Bradley-Terry statistical model for paired comparisons. The rest of your post seems like a mostly accurate but tautological description of how the model scores are shown to consumers.
 
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