So when I lost 9-4 to the same person 40 times on a big table and then 9-7 on a little table, everyone just assumes I improved. WIN!
Fargo Rating? Valley vs Diamond
- Thread starter Belford
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So when I lost 9-4 to the same person 40 times on a big table and then 9-7 on a little table, everyone just assumes I improved. WIN!
Correct me if I am wrong, but don't you get to pick any ball you want and put it in any pocket you want?
I would also be curious how far apart the average ball is from the intended pocket and the cue ball for the table size.
I love how the arguments always revolve around Pros. Like people are making this huge non-arguable fact. The real fact is the Pros have thousands of hours of practice and have shot hundreds of thousands of shots. They will be seamless from table to table to table.
Now you want to say two 25 year old men. One plays 2 hours a week on a 7' Valley with a mud ball. The other plays 2 hours a week on a 7' diamond with a red circle. If you're going to try to tell me when they match up it won't matter if they play on a diamond or a valley, the outcome will be the same. Then you shouldn't be building handicap systems.
Now you want to say two 25 year old men. One plays 2 hours a week on a 7' Valley with a mud ball. The other plays 2 hours a week on a 7' diamond with a red circle. If you're going to try to tell me when they match up it won't matter if they play on a diamond or a valley, the outcome will be the same. Then you shouldn't be building handicap systems.
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No, I'm arguing the point in time factor, I just gave an example scenario. I don't see how you could disagree that if I'm one Fargo rating in one environment, then I play in a different environment, I could play like I am a very different rating either higher or lower. Anyone who plays pool has experienced this, I don't think this point is worth arguing it feels like fact.
I'm a big proponent of Fargo rate and I think it's great for our game. It also makes sense that it'll work better long term and with more data. It certainly doesn't seem perfect though given the way people want to use it and this is one example. If people are using Fargo rate to handicap events, then unless the handicap range is wide enough to account for this it could be problematic.
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I don't think there is anybody who has participated in this discussion who would disagree.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man
On the flip side, if you don't have an exceptionally deep understanding of mathematics and statistics and the specific formula being used by FargoRate then you have no business debating it with the guy who says this method/formula already accurately and best accounts for these things. The bottom line is how can you possibly say something is wrong that you don't even understand and lack the ability to understand? You can't.
And for those that say that he hasn't given the formula, he pretty much has. The fact that you don't see that is the very proof that you don't have the first clue of any understanding of it. You can't say something is wrong that you don't understand.
So now we must include the cue ball into the handicap system? Why a mud ball on Valley and not on the Diamond? What if the Valley uses Simonis cloth and Penguin pro pocket rails and a red dot that weighs the same as the others?
So for Fargo ratings we should now use:
Size of table
Size of pocket
Shelf on pocket
Pocket angle
Cue ball
Actual balls used
Cloth
Rails
Weather
Actual win/loss of players
Anything else? Maybe the other environmental things that could affect one's play (music, time of day) and the players mood at the time?
I could be wrong, but I don't Bugz was actually saying to take all of those things into account. I THINK he was trying to illustrate something along the lines of what myself and a few others were asking about. Basically there are things that probably would make a big difference in real life is not being taken into account in the Fargo formula. I THINK I understand what he's trying to get at. I have no idea really but it could be totally possible that these intangible things CAN NOT be figured into the formula for whatever the reason.
You forgot:
mood
health
comfort of shoes
state of inebriation
amount of sleep
insulin levels
shirt color
Oh you mean the variables will generally correct themselves over the long run?
Aside from the "very," OK
As a practical matter, I think you have to compare handicapping with Fargo Ratings to the old way. And let's be generous and assume the old way has players categorized perfectly as 3's, 4's, and 5's, where players race to their numbers. The players are ordered correctly. No 3 plays better than any 4, etc.
Of course, even with perfect categorization the 3's have a range of skill. Say it is 300-399. The 4's are 400-499. The 5's are 500-599. Now, even with this perfect categorization there are some issues.
A 498 playing a 502. The 498 gets a spot, even though they are very close in skill (4 points apart).
A 401 vs a 599 (198 points apart) gets the same spot as above.
A 400 vs a 499 (99 points apart) is no spot at all
But move each player 1 point, 399 vs 500, and you move to a two-game spot.
A very simple change using the Fargo Ratings gets rid of this nonsense.
Fewer than 70 points apart: no spot
71 - 139 points apart: one-game spot
140+ games apart: two-game spot.
Even is players are performing 20-30 points below their rating because of unfamiliar conditions, you don't get inequities that rival the above.
lol.........
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My take: The Fargo system is an "after the facts" statistical ranking and prediction system of a controlled process (playing pool), based upon the assumption that the players and equipment are behaving normally (and that nothing is abnormal or "out of control" .... such as playing with heavy, oversized cueball). If something is abnormal, then someone who is intimately familiar with the specific situation (such as a gambler) knows when to override what the stats say, and bet on his intuition and first-hand knowledge.
I remember when statistical quality process controls were first introduced at a laboratory that I worked at. And I remember what an expert operator had to say about a certain group of lab instruments. He said that the statistical controls and charts were good ways for supervisors and managers to spot and evaluate trends, but it is the expert person on the lab floor who can be a better and more timely judge of a trend. For instance, he said that lab instrument "A" is next to the lab entry door. During winter (due to short blasts of cold air), that instrument "A" will have more variability. It would take a statistical system a long time to pinpoint this variability and find a solution. Stats are a great tool for someone that is not intimately knowledgeable about the process variables.
The Fargo system is a good statistical tool. But there is still a place for the knowledgeable gambler to have more intimate and available information to justify overriding what the stats predict.
I remember when statistical quality process controls were first introduced at a laboratory that I worked at. And I remember what an expert operator had to say about a certain group of lab instruments. He said that the statistical controls and charts were good ways for supervisors and managers to spot and evaluate trends, but it is the expert person on the lab floor who can be a better and more timely judge of a trend. For instance, he said that lab instrument "A" is next to the lab entry door. During winter (due to short blasts of cold air), that instrument "A" will have more variability. It would take a statistical system a long time to pinpoint this variability and find a solution. Stats are a great tool for someone that is not intimately knowledgeable about the process variables.
The Fargo system is a good statistical tool. But there is still a place for the knowledgeable gambler to have more intimate and available information to justify overriding what the stats predict.
Spot on.......
FargoRate will extract which player won the game as that is all it cares about.
But leagues can be structured per usual. Games can be played with ball-count with either 10-point or 17-point scoring or whatever. FargoRate will allow better handicapping of these formats, though, than you can get tracking ball averages.
Mike Page you are the most patient person I know. If I were you I would be pulling my hair out by now.