I tried the shot as diagrammed both ways. With right draw it was hard to get much closer than the first diamond past the center. The CB straightens up off the rail. This left a shot I wouldn't want for a game.
With left topspin the CB ran around and sat on the 8-ball, despite having a ton of inside english on it. It would take a bit of luck to get on the 8-ball well forst shot with either of these options without some familararity with the table.
I think the smarter shot would be either to:
1. Just play the CB soft onto the 1 ball, knuckling up the opponent.
2. Cutting the 1 ball over the pocket with IE to leave the CB near the rail for only a bank shot. if he makes it, he has to make a better shot that your other shot options that are not very attractive.
Better to leave a guy a 20% shot that take on a 50% shot. The following shot you should be 80% minimum.
It's Expected Value (E.V.)
50% + (20% x 50% if he misses.) = 60%
versus
80% x 80% (80% chance of going out if he misses the bank or tries to leave a safe) = 64%
Something like that. I think I'd go the cut over the pocket and leave a tough shot on the 8.
The knuckle up allows him to dribble onto the 8-ball and you may end up potting or safing the 1-ball on the next shot as hard to go for the out.
I don't like the off the cushion snooker...as it is maybe 30% foul and loss of game shot or 20% leave a shot on the 8-ball which could be played as a in-or-over safety. Depends if you now this shot well. Then it could be the shot to play.
With left topspin the CB ran around and sat on the 8-ball, despite having a ton of inside english on it. It would take a bit of luck to get on the 8-ball well forst shot with either of these options without some familararity with the table.
I think the smarter shot would be either to:
1. Just play the CB soft onto the 1 ball, knuckling up the opponent.
2. Cutting the 1 ball over the pocket with IE to leave the CB near the rail for only a bank shot. if he makes it, he has to make a better shot that your other shot options that are not very attractive.
Better to leave a guy a 20% shot that take on a 50% shot. The following shot you should be 80% minimum.
It's Expected Value (E.V.)
50% + (20% x 50% if he misses.) = 60%
versus
80% x 80% (80% chance of going out if he misses the bank or tries to leave a safe) = 64%
Something like that. I think I'd go the cut over the pocket and leave a tough shot on the 8.
The knuckle up allows him to dribble onto the 8-ball and you may end up potting or safing the 1-ball on the next shot as hard to go for the out.
I don't like the off the cushion snooker...as it is maybe 30% foul and loss of game shot or 20% leave a shot on the 8-ball which could be played as a in-or-over safety. Depends if you now this shot well. Then it could be the shot to play.
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