How much is too much for you to bet racing to 9?

[CreeDo]

It sounds like Geometry's using a sort of modified Kelly system.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
It can be applied to sports wagers, horse racing, and probably to casino blackjack if you're counting cards.

If you assume 1 to 1 odds on your money (most pool bets) and you are absolutely certain you have an edge, you find out how much to bet by taking your odds of winning minus your odds of losing.

Like if you're absolutely positive you're at least 10% favorite to win a match, the formula would simply be 60 - 40 (multiplied by 1-to-1 odds on the money). The result is 20. Therefore you should bet 20% of your bankroll.

Over the years gamblers have figure out the flaw in this system... even if you're correct on your estimates, an unlucky streak can send you home broke. It's fine in the long haul but you also want to pay attention to the short term. You may not get a "long haul" with some of the opponents you have successfully clocked, they may quit and never be seen again.

So guys like jdx, if they used a system like this at all, would modify it... like they might bet 15%-20% less than what the system suggests.

Geometry's estimates are conservative too. They give 10% less with a lower edge and 20% less with a big 80-90% edge. If you truly have 100% odds of winning then you should bet it all. This is all assuming you're using your disposable income, you could lose every dime and still afford to live.

The problem in pool is there is an element of luck that never would quite guarantee 100%, and between luck and the difficulty of clocking people's speeds (especially those who are willing to lay down) it'd be hard to ever get an accurate estimate of your odds of winning. Even if I was positive I had a 10% edge, I personally wouldn't bet more than 5% and I'd want the other guy to commit to several sets. It's still uncomfortably close to a coin flip.

 

[jdxprs]

It sounds like Geometry's using a sort of modified Kelly system.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
It can be applied to sports wagers, horse racing, and probably to casino blackjack if you're counting cards.

If you assume 1 to 1 odds on your money (most pool bets) and you are absolutely certain you have an edge, you find out how much to bet by taking your odds of winning minus your odds of losing.

Like if you're absolutely positive you're at least 10% favorite to win a match, the formula would simply be 60 - 40 (multiplied by 1-to-1 odds on the money). The result is 20. Therefore you should bet 20% of your bankroll.

Over the years gamblers have figure out the flaw in this system... even if you're correct on your estimates, an unlucky streak can send you home broke. It's fine in the long haul but you also want to pay attention to the short term. You may not get a "long haul" with some of the opponents you have successfully clocked, they may quit and never be seen again.

So guys like jdx, if they used a system like this at all, would modify it... like they might bet 15%-20% less than what the system suggests.

Geometry's estimates are conservative too. They give 10% less with a lower edge and 20% less with a big 80-90% edge. If you truly have 100% odds of winning then you should bet it all. This is all assuming you're using your disposable income, you could lose every dime and still afford to live.

The problem in pool is there is an element of luck that never would quite guarantee 100%, and between luck and the difficulty of clocking people's speeds (especially those who are willing to lay down) it'd be hard to ever get an accurate estimate of your odds of winning. Even if I was positive I had a 10% edge, I personally wouldn't bet more than 5% and I'd want the other guy to commit to several sets. It's still uncomfortably close to a coin flip.

pro gamblers would never use the kelly system. like i said, 2 or 3 percent of your bankroll per event is the key. when making a living on gambling, your success or failure is based mostly on the quality of your money management skills.

 

[pt109]

Ship it

I basically see two things.

Bankroll management and advantage percentage. It would be stupid to bet your entire bankroll on one game when the player is only slightly worse than you.

If you are almost certainly going to win - lets say 90%-100% then I would bet about 60% of bankroll.

If you have a strong advantage - lets say 80% chance of winning overall, I would bet around 40% of my bankroll.

If you have a weak advantage - lets say 60% then I would bet about 10% of bank roll in order to cut down variance.

If its 50/50 then just make it low as you can... say 5% because these are just pointless in terms of profit... You might as well bet on a coin flip.

If its less than 50% mostly you shouldn't be playing. However, if you see it as an investment against a really good player you can learn from... that's ok, just keep it to the minimum amount.

I would bet always in accordance to my bankroll. Obviously you have to be tighter and assume more ploys the more you bet.

If i could find a game with 90% advantage,i would bet it all.But if i
wanted to be conservative i would bet 50%.Assuming your bank roll
is your issue,this gives you 2 barrels.
With the 80% advantage it is silly to bet 40%.Either bet a third or 1/2.
Gives you 3 or 2 barrels.
Either of these games are hard to find.I wore out 15 cars looking
for them.Had to settle for many 52/48 gambles where you need
lots of barrels.

 

[jdxprs]

maybe we need to define bankroll here.

when you guys say "bankroll" are you talking about the amount you are willing to gamble that one night?

or are you talking about all the money you have to your name that you have designated for gambling?


when i was gambling heavily on things, "my bankroll" was more than i made in a year at my job. this bankroll was aquired over many years of gambling, and was used for gambling purposes only. sports, pool, casino, whatever.

now if you are saying im out at the pool hall for the night with $1000 in my pocket, and that is what you are calling your bankroll, sure i would be willing to bet half or even all of it in one set.

 

[Celtic]

I shoot better for the bigger cash but atm despite the fact I can ramp up my game the more money on the table (along with slowing down by a huge degree) my comfort level is no more then $100 a set due to my finacial state atm being a student. Even at $100 a set I can hardly afford to lose and wont play coin flips for that cash. For a coin flip I am comfortable at $20 a set, can play for up to $50 a set, and any more then that if I am playing someone my level it is getting too steep for me at this stage of my life.

 

[pooltableproCP]

My money game constitution is so weak, i have to flip a nickel for the break to avoid getting high rolled.....

 

[CreeDo]

I think the confusion is over how we're defining bankroll, yeah.

If you REALLY hate the thought of losing 2,000 bucks out of your 10,000 dollar bankroll... then maybe your bankroll is really 2,000 bucks. The rest is just rainy day money that you're unwilling to risk.

We should define it as "what you are willing to lose" which is different from what you're able to lose without totally ruining your life. I guess break it down per night. What would absolutely kill you to lose in a single night?

Maybe your feeling is that you can't possibly limit yourself to 4 or 5 barrels, but if you REALLY had, say, an 80/20 edge in a match, and they commit to 4 sets...you should be thrilled to be at least 1/4th of your entire wad. Hit the checking account too. The odds of shooting off all 4 barrels and losing every one is literally less than 1/2 of 1 percent.

Of course you'll never get such a sweet lock... I think you're dealing in the 2-3% range because you (probably safely) assume every match is no better than about 55/45.

 

[jdxprs]

I think the confusion is over how we're defining bankroll, yeah.

If you REALLY hate the thought of losing 2,000 bucks out of your 10,000 dollar bankroll... then maybe your bankroll is really 2,000 bucks. The rest is just rainy day money that you're unwilling to risk.

We should define it as "what you are willing to lose" which is different from what you're able to lose without totally ruining your life. I guess break it down per night. What would absolutely kill you to lose in a single night?

Maybe your feeling is that you can't possibly limit yourself to 4 or 5 barrels, but if you REALLY had, say, an 80/20 edge in a match, and they commit to 4 sets...you should be thrilled to be at least 1/4th of your entire wad. Hit the checking account too. The odds of shooting off all 4 barrels and losing every one is literally less than 1/2 of 1 percent.

Of course you'll never get such a sweet lock... I think you're dealing in the 2-3% range because you (probably safely) assume every match is no better than about 55/45.

dealing in the 2-3% range is how you grow a 6 figure gambling bankroll safely. betting large percentages of your roll is high reward, but it's also high risk.