#### kanzzo

##### hobby player

How far away are you from shooting your first 100 (or 200, or 630)?

I think I found a way to calculate for every player, how far away he is from his first 100 or whatever high run goal at straight pool he has.

Why someone should be interested?

I wanted to shoot 100 balls since I am playing pool but never knew, how far away I am from this goal. Analyzing the world record attempts from John Schmidt, that are free available at facebook and playing with the numbers I found a way to calculate this. With this method every player can find out, how far away he is from his high run goal

Like a player like me, who shoots regularly 42 to reach 100 or someone like Hohmann, Feijen or Harriman to reach 630.

The math goes like this:

if you play like Shmidt and can reach 100 on average every third attempt, than you need 3^2 (9) attempts to reach 200, 3^3 (27) attempts to reach 300 and so on…

((3^4) 81 for 400

243 for 500.

Lets say John Shmidt has to play slow to play this good (6 min per rack) and averages 7 racks per inning). Than one attempt would be 42 min, 8 min break between attempts and 9 attempts on average playing 8 hours. Playing 22 days a month makes 198 attempts. So he can expect to shoot on average every day 200+ and twice a month 400+. He should be able to reach 526 in 2,6 months.

But say he is able to play that good but it requires ton of mental energy and he chooses another path. For the first 200 points he plays faster and less concentrated and needs 4,5 tries on average to reach 100. Average attempt is now 64 balls but he plays much faster, 3,5 minutes per rack and an attempt takes on average 15 minutes.

Now the math would be:

4,5 attempts for 100

4,5^2 (20,25) for 200

(410 for 400, 8303 for 600)

so now he needs 20 attempts to get to 200 but can manage 30 attempts per day, so he will still shoot 200 once a day on average but would need 14 months on average to get to 600. (But if he can switch to a slower and better game after 200 points than 600 needs like 81 200+ attempts to start with. With the expectation of 9 400+ on this way. As far as I am informed, these numbers are not to far off. (Update 20/05/08: I read in an interview today that he had 8 400+ runs in his lifetime, 9 counting the 626)

And now every player just needs to put his numbers in to find out how far he is from his goal.

Say I get through the rack every 4 attempts and need on average 16 attempts to get to 30 points. Than for me getting to 60+ would need 16^2 attempts and 90+ 16^3 (4096) attempts. Playing 40 concentrated attempts per training session I am about 100 training sessions away from shooting my first 90.

And recording my attempts every session I can see, if my numbers are still accurate or worse/better when expected. To get 40+ schould need 16^1.3 (36,75). So if I average about one 40+ in my 40 innings training seesion, I am on a good way. I should be shooting 60+ about every 8-9 sessions and so on. And obviously I could search for ways to improve my game and get better stats for getting through the rack and reaching 30. If I work on my fundamentals and improve my pattern and this way improve my stats to get through the rack to 1 out of 3 instead of 1 out of 4. Than reaching 30 gets to every 10th inning and 60+ are expected every 100 attempts, so once every 2-3 training sessions. Now I am only 25 training sessions away from shooting my first 90+ .

Same math for someone with playing ability of Hohmann, Feijen or Harriman to reach 630. Just calculate how many attempts you need on average to reach 100 and how long an average attempt takes you. This (attempt) number ^6.3 will tell you, how far away you are from a new world record.

Hope someone finds this helpful.

I think I found a way to calculate for every player, how far away he is from his first 100 or whatever high run goal at straight pool he has.

Why someone should be interested?

I wanted to shoot 100 balls since I am playing pool but never knew, how far away I am from this goal. Analyzing the world record attempts from John Schmidt, that are free available at facebook and playing with the numbers I found a way to calculate this. With this method every player can find out, how far away he is from his high run goal

Like a player like me, who shoots regularly 42 to reach 100 or someone like Hohmann, Feijen or Harriman to reach 630.

The math goes like this:

if you play like Shmidt and can reach 100 on average every third attempt, than you need 3^2 (9) attempts to reach 200, 3^3 (27) attempts to reach 300 and so on…

((3^4) 81 for 400

243 for 500.

Lets say John Shmidt has to play slow to play this good (6 min per rack) and averages 7 racks per inning). Than one attempt would be 42 min, 8 min break between attempts and 9 attempts on average playing 8 hours. Playing 22 days a month makes 198 attempts. So he can expect to shoot on average every day 200+ and twice a month 400+. He should be able to reach 526 in 2,6 months.

But say he is able to play that good but it requires ton of mental energy and he chooses another path. For the first 200 points he plays faster and less concentrated and needs 4,5 tries on average to reach 100. Average attempt is now 64 balls but he plays much faster, 3,5 minutes per rack and an attempt takes on average 15 minutes.

Now the math would be:

4,5 attempts for 100

4,5^2 (20,25) for 200

(410 for 400, 8303 for 600)

so now he needs 20 attempts to get to 200 but can manage 30 attempts per day, so he will still shoot 200 once a day on average but would need 14 months on average to get to 600. (But if he can switch to a slower and better game after 200 points than 600 needs like 81 200+ attempts to start with. With the expectation of 9 400+ on this way. As far as I am informed, these numbers are not to far off. (Update 20/05/08: I read in an interview today that he had 8 400+ runs in his lifetime, 9 counting the 626)

And now every player just needs to put his numbers in to find out how far he is from his goal.

Say I get through the rack every 4 attempts and need on average 16 attempts to get to 30 points. Than for me getting to 60+ would need 16^2 attempts and 90+ 16^3 (4096) attempts. Playing 40 concentrated attempts per training session I am about 100 training sessions away from shooting my first 90.

And recording my attempts every session I can see, if my numbers are still accurate or worse/better when expected. To get 40+ schould need 16^1.3 (36,75). So if I average about one 40+ in my 40 innings training seesion, I am on a good way. I should be shooting 60+ about every 8-9 sessions and so on. And obviously I could search for ways to improve my game and get better stats for getting through the rack and reaching 30. If I work on my fundamentals and improve my pattern and this way improve my stats to get through the rack to 1 out of 3 instead of 1 out of 4. Than reaching 30 gets to every 10th inning and 60+ are expected every 100 attempts, so once every 2-3 training sessions. Now I am only 25 training sessions away from shooting my first 90+ .

Same math for someone with playing ability of Hohmann, Feijen or Harriman to reach 630. Just calculate how many attempts you need on average to reach 100 and how long an average attempt takes you. This (attempt) number ^6.3 will tell you, how far away you are from a new world record.

Hope someone finds this helpful.

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