How would you play this?

[Patrick Johnson]

I can't really picture where you're talking about putting the 9-ball. You're giving up ball in hand, so you have to make sure you don't leave room to make the 5, or he'll run out, and you have to make sure you don't leave a carom or a combo. Seems very tricky not to sell out any of those options.

I think you may be biased by the fact that you got lucky with the kick. I agree it's a pretty high percentage hit on the 5, but I don't think it's high percentage to get out or get safe with it.

I think the high percentage shot for staying alive another inning is to nudge the 9 very slightly out of line without giving up the carom (as others have suggested).

Nice shot, by the way; must have demoralized your opponent.

pj
chgo

 

[mullyman]

I think you may be biased by the fact that you got lucky with the kick. I agree it's a pretty high percentage hit on the 5, but I don't think it's high percentage to get out or get safe with it.

I think the high percentage shot for staying alive another inning is to nudge the 9 very slightly out of line without giving up the carom (as others have suggested).

Nice shot, by the way; must have demoralized your opponent.

pj
chgo

I'd go with nudging it out of line and giving up ball in hand. Kicking at it is a possibility, but as it was stated in the beginning, because of the way it's lined up, and the balls aren't touching, it could go or it could rattle in the jaws. I don't know about a lot of you guys but I tend to not take a chance on balls that "might" go. I'd rather be 100% sure it's going and find out I was wrong than think it might go and end up finding out it wouldn't. In a situation like this, contacting the 5 isn't the problem, it's if that 9 will go or not. As for giving BIH to a strong player that means absolutely nothing. You have to do the best that you can do to get yourself back to the table. Winging at that "might go" shot isn't the best way to do that. Nudging them out of line and giving up BIH is the way to go. Worst he can do is play safe again, and that means you're coming back to the table. I wouldn't take a winger on any shot until I was on 2 fouls.

Now, since we're talking strength of game, and since everyone here always seems to get out, make fantastic shots, and can do things mere mortals can't think of, how about this one. Control the speed of the bank on the 6 and roll it up behind the 9-5. Or bank that 7 across table in front of them. Hey, if you have the nuts to kick 2 rails at a "might go" ball then what would be so out of line with the banks to block both of them?
MULLY
I'd nudge out of line though

 

[mullyman]

BTW, let me state another reason I would go with the nudge. The cue ball is right there next to the 9-ball and from that distance you can control that 110%. Now, if I was a lot further from the ball I might try something different, but that close to it, you're guaranteed to get the safe.
MULLY
Oh yeah, unless your kicking is excellent you also stand the chance of coming off that third rail before the 5 and hitting the 5 in just the right spot that the 9 goes and the cue ball rolls right over into that other corner pocket.

 

[sjm]

I think you may be biased by the fact that you got lucky with the kick. I agree it's a pretty high percentage hit on the 5, but I don't think it's high percentage to get out or get safe with it.

I think the high percentage shot for staying alive another inning is to nudge the 9 very slightly out of line without giving up the carom (as others have suggested).

Nice shot, by the way; must have demoralized your opponent.

pj
chgo

Agreed that it's the best chance to get another inning. It's just not the best chance to win the rack. We both see this as a high percentage kick, and I don't believe on passing up a high percentage kick against a strong player unless the tie up I can create is a nightmare. Here, even if I get this tie up right, which is no guarantee, I'll be kicking on my very next inning 99% of the time.

 

[Zitkus]

taking a line from the movie Top Gun...

"the move was a success, but I think we showed it it here as what not to do"

some important info is missing from this post...is it double hill in a social game? Is it a tourney? Is it for table time...100 bucks...500 bucks?

If it's any of the later, the nudge is the correct play. If it's double hill in a $500 set, there's no way I'm turning that rock loose. A short tight 5/9 tieup is my play. Played correctly does not leave my opponent a shot.

just my .02

 

[mullyman]

Agreed that it's the best chance to get another inning. It's just not the best chance to win the rack. We both see this as a high percentage kick, and I don't believe on passing up a high percentage kick against a strong player unless the tie up I can create is a nightmare. Here, even if I get this tie up right, which is no guarantee, I'll be kicking on my very next inning 99% of the time.

You're absolutely right, you'll be kicking again that next inning, but you'll be kicking under different circumstances. I don't want to take a winger at anything until I'm on my last chance at the table.
MULLY

 

[mullyman]

taking a line from the movie Top Gun...

"the move was a success, but I think we showed it it here as what not to do"

some important info is missing from this post...is it double hill in a social game? Is it a tourney? Is it for table time...100 bucks...500 bucks?

If it's any of the later, the nudge is the correct play. If it's double hill in a $500 set, there's no way I'm turning that rock loose. A short tight 5/9 tieup is my play. Played correctly does not leave my opponent a shot.

just my .02

Very good point that was overlooked. Hey, if me and a friend are playing sets for 10 bucks, yeah, I'll kick at it. If it's the championship game, hill/hill for the title and the money, I'm going safe and taking my chances.
MULLY

 

[sjm]

So to be clear, you're suggesting nudging the 9 to leave this:

CueTable Help

-Andrew

The nudge doesn't work, even if the position in the above post is left. Let's ignore the one chance in a hundred that the nudge actually freezes the nine to the five. If there is any space between the nine, even 1/8 of an inch, after opponet play a tap safety, your next shot will be this and you will have traded down, not up.

CueTable Help

If, by some miracle, you freeze the nine to the five, you still lose, but you'll only be hooked behind the seven on your next shot.

The nudge is a losing play unless your opponent is a weak player, and the original post says your opponent is a strong player. Play to win, rather than sitting back and waiting for the kind of mistakes that good players don't ever make.

 

[Neil]

.................

 

[dabarbr]

I think you may be biased by the fact that you got lucky with the kick. I agree it's a pretty high percentage hit on the 5, but I don't think it's high percentage to get out or get safe with it.

I think the high percentage shot for staying alive another inning is to nudge the 9 very slightly out of line without giving up the carom (as others have suggested).

Nice shot, by the way; must have demoralized your opponent.

pj
chgo

I also think that nudging the nine would be my option, if there's a chance for the combo with ball in hand. I can't see them putting me in any worse position than I'm already in.

I will allow them one chance to possibly make a mistake with their safety. They might miss hit it too soft, too hard, wrong angle or a variety of other things might go wrong.

My decisions would depend on if there is a three foul rule. If the nine was not makable the way they sit then I would give up ball in hand while removing the seven ball from that location. It is cutting off the soft cross table kick since that is probably where they will try to put the cue ball at from their safe.

 

[Patrick Johnson]

Playing the nudge safe isn't playing to win, it is playing to prolong the game and hope you get real, real lucky.

Playing the 2-rail hit to win is hoping you get real, real lucky too. You have to either make the 9 (real unlikely, according to Andrew's description) or leave your opponent at least a little awkward. And chances are pretty good that if you hit the 5 you leave the 9 in front of the pocket.

Even with all that, after considering it more I think you're right. Assuming a good hit on the 5 (not a gimme, even for a good player) almost any outcome is at least a little better than giving your opponent ball in hand, even with the 9/5 tied up.

pj
chgo

 

[mullyman]

But, I totally agree with SJM, that the nudge safe only prolongs the inevitable. It doesn't help you any. You have to play to win against good opponents, and the only option here is the kick. Playing the nudge safe isn't playing to win, it is playing to prolong the game and hope you get real, real lucky.

Well, for myself "Play to win" doesn't mean taking a wild 2 rail shot on a combination that "might" go. Either way you are screwed but at least with the nudge you give him the chance to screw up.
MULLY

 

[sjm]

Well, for myself "Play to win" doesn't mean taking a wild 2 rail shot on a combination that "might" go. Either way you are screwed but at least with the nudge you give him the chance to screw up.
MULLY

Actually, although the combo might go, the point here is that this is an easy kick. Even if the nine doesn't go, there are many possible good results, and, of course, many possible sellouts. The point here is that the odds of the nudge gaining against a strong opponent (and this is one according to the first post) are so negligible that you shouldn't pass up a relatively easy kick on which some good results are possible.

If you don't think this is an easy kick, set it up and try it. I think you'll surprise yourself how easily a good hit on the five is made here.

 

[woody_968]

I totally agree with SJM here. The kick is not that hard, and if you hit the 3rd rail right before the 5 you have a very good chance of at least making him bank the 5.

I really dont think it matters if its for fun, tourney, or money either. The right shot is the right shot no matter what the situation.

Woody

 

[2_Fast_4_Fleas]

ok lets take the might go out of it. if the 9 was froze and unmakeable would he have shot it? no he would have whot and made the 7 then the 6 or 8 for second foul then what is he gonna hide behind? heck if im gonna be playing a strong player (him saying that like the guy was alot better than him) and i was hill hill, im thinking i was lucky getting there and not gonna push my luck! but if im playing a weaker player and he did that to me he would definately have action for a while. Im hoping i get a player in all games that cant move as good as i can. offense doesnt always pay, heck i just spent a week watching the whole freggin color of money match between efren and strickland watching earl get 17 games ahead on the last day with 30 something games left for him to win and his offense was no good against efrens moving ability. and earl lost 120-117 i knew the outcome before i watched it and i was still devistated. I have a 100% chance of locking that 9 up and getting another shot on that one. im not flipping a coin and hoping i might make it cause i might not get another shot as i explained before...

 

[dabarbr]

Well, for myself "Play to win" doesn't mean taking a wild 2 rail shot on a combination that "might" go. Either way you are screwed but at least with the nudge you give him the chance to screw up.
MULLY

Exactly what I said in my post but with different words.

 

[Marcl3954]

I totally agree with SJM here. The kick is not that hard, and if you hit the 3rd rail right before the 5 you have a very good chance of at least making him bank the 5.

I really dont think it matters if its for fun, tourney, or money either. The right shot is the right shot no matter what the situation.

Woody

Hitting the 5 is pretty good odds on this. If you've practiced it, it is makeable.

 

[sjm]

I have a 100% chance of locking that 9 up and getting another shot on that one.

No, you don't. If you don't think the chance of giving up a carom on the nine is very real, you're missing the boat here. I'd call it at least a 25% chance, even for a highly skilled player. I also think that even if you don't leave the carom, more than half the time, the next kick you'll face will be tougher than this one. Anyone who is so skilled that they'll never give up the carom on the nine when tying the balls up won't ever miss the two rail kick.

 

[dabarbr]

Maybe the chance of locking up the nine is not 100% but with the cue ball that close to the nine the percentage for a good player to do so is extremely high. The only time I wouldn't try to lock up the nine would be if I saw that with ball in hand they could position the five to the other side of the nine. That would certainly put me in a position for a loss. If that was the case then the kick is in order. The two rail kick as suggested is a fairly simple kick with a high percentage of hitting the five ball. But then I would know that it would be like casting my faith to the wind. Good things could happen with the kick as well as bad.

If they could not position the five behind the nine with ball in hand then the nudge is my choice because there is no where on the table that will put me in more trouble than I'm already in. Knowing that the best they could do with BIH is put me back to where I originally was then I would give up BIH to give them one chance to err with their safety.They would have to go off the five thin and take the cue ball two rails to get behind the nine.

 

[sjm]

Maybe the chance of locking up the nine is not 100% but with the cue ball that close to the nine the percentage for a good player to do so is extremely high. The only time I wouldn't try to lock up the nine would be if I saw that with ball in hand they could position the five to the other side of the nine. That would certainly put me in a position for a loss. If that was the case then the kick is in order.

Now we're nearly together. I considered this very matter in post #28 in this thread. I concluded that this safety will be available if the nine is not left frozen to the five. However, even if the nine is left touching the five, the safety off the edge of the five under the seven, which is about as simple as it gets to execute, is nearly as deadly, as the long one rail response has the six ball, and possibly even the eight ball, complicating matters. The short one railer would be even tougher, as the nine will cover some of the five ball.