How would you play this?

Patrick Johnson said:
I think you may be biased by the fact that you got lucky with the kick. I agree it's a pretty high percentage hit on the 5, but I don't think it's high percentage to get out or get safe with it.

I think the high percentage shot for staying alive another inning is to nudge the 9 very slightly out of line without giving up the carom (as others have suggested).

Nice shot, by the way; must have demoralized your opponent.

pj
chgo
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Agreed that it's the best chance to get another inning. It's just not the best chance to win the rack. We both see this as a high percentage kick, and I don't believe on passing up a high percentage kick against a strong player unless the tie up I can create is a nightmare. Here, even if I get this tie up right, which is no guarantee, I'll be kicking on my very next inning 99% of the time.
 
taking a line from the movie Top Gun...

"the move was a success, but I think we showed it it here as what not to do"

some important info is missing from this post...is it double hill in a social game? Is it a tourney? Is it for table time...100 bucks...500 bucks?

If it's any of the later, the nudge is the correct play. If it's double hill in a $500 set, there's no way I'm turning that rock loose. A short tight 5/9 tieup is my play. Played correctly does not leave my opponent a shot.

just my .02
 
sjm said:
Agreed that it's the best chance to get another inning. It's just not the best chance to win the rack. We both see this as a high percentage kick, and I don't believe on passing up a high percentage kick against a strong player unless the tie up I can create is a nightmare. Here, even if I get this tie up right, which is no guarantee, I'll be kicking on my very next inning 99% of the time.
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You're absolutely right, you'll be kicking again that next inning, but you'll be kicking under different circumstances. I don't want to take a winger at anything until I'm on my last chance at the table.
MULLY
 
Zitkus said:
taking a line from the movie Top Gun...

"the move was a success, but I think we showed it it here as what not to do"

some important info is missing from this post...is it double hill in a social game? Is it a tourney? Is it for table time...100 bucks...500 bucks?

If it's any of the later, the nudge is the correct play. If it's double hill in a $500 set, there's no way I'm turning that rock loose. A short tight 5/9 tieup is my play. Played correctly does not leave my opponent a shot.

just my .02
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Very good point that was overlooked. Hey, if me and a friend are playing sets for 10 bucks, yeah, I'll kick at it. If it's the championship game, hill/hill for the title and the money, I'm going safe and taking my chances.
MULLY
 
Andrew Manning said:
So to be clear, you're suggesting nudging the 9 to leave this:

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-Andrew
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The nudge doesn't work, even if the position in the above post is left. Let's ignore the one chance in a hundred that the nudge actually freezes the nine to the five. If there is any space between the nine, even 1/8 of an inch, after opponet play a tap safety, your next shot will be this and you will have traded down, not up.

CueTable Help



If, by some miracle, you freeze the nine to the five, you still lose, but you'll only be hooked behind the seven on your next shot.

The nudge is a losing play unless your opponent is a weak player, and the original post says your opponent is a strong player. Play to win, rather than sitting back and waiting for the kind of mistakes that good players don't ever make.
 
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Patrick Johnson said:
I think you may be biased by the fact that you got lucky with the kick. I agree it's a pretty high percentage hit on the 5, but I don't think it's high percentage to get out or get safe with it.

I think the high percentage shot for staying alive another inning is to nudge the 9 very slightly out of line without giving up the carom (as others have suggested).

Nice shot, by the way; must have demoralized your opponent.

pj
chgo
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I also think that nudging the nine would be my option, if there's a chance for the combo with ball in hand. I can't see them putting me in any worse position than I'm already in.

I will allow them one chance to possibly make a mistake with their safety. They might miss hit it too soft, too hard, wrong angle or a variety of other things might go wrong.

My decisions would depend on if there is a three foul rule. If the nine was not makable the way they sit then I would give up ball in hand while removing the seven ball from that location. It is cutting off the soft cross table kick since that is probably where they will try to put the cue ball at from their safe.
 
Neil said:
Playing the nudge safe isn't playing to win, it is playing to prolong the game and hope you get real, real lucky.
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Playing the 2-rail hit to win is hoping you get real, real lucky too. You have to either make the 9 (real unlikely, according to Andrew's description) or leave your opponent at least a little awkward. And chances are pretty good that if you hit the 5 you leave the 9 in front of the pocket.

Even with all that, after considering it more I think you're right. Assuming a good hit on the 5 (not a gimme, even for a good player) almost any outcome is at least a little better than giving your opponent ball in hand, even with the 9/5 tied up.

pj
chgo
 
Neil said:
But, I totally agree with SJM, that the nudge safe only prolongs the inevitable. It doesn't help you any. You have to play to win against good opponents, and the only option here is the kick. Playing the nudge safe isn't playing to win, it is playing to prolong the game and hope you get real, real lucky.
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Well, for myself "Play to win" doesn't mean taking a wild 2 rail shot on a combination that "might" go. Either way you are screwed but at least with the nudge you give him the chance to screw up.
MULLY
 
mullyman said:
Well, for myself "Play to win" doesn't mean taking a wild 2 rail shot on a combination that "might" go. Either way you are screwed but at least with the nudge you give him the chance to screw up.
MULLY
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Actually, although the combo might go, the point here is that this is an easy kick. Even if the nine doesn't go, there are many possible good results, and, of course, many possible sellouts. The point here is that the odds of the nudge gaining against a strong opponent (and this is one according to the first post) are so negligible that you shouldn't pass up a relatively easy kick on which some good results are possible.

If you don't think this is an easy kick, set it up and try it. I think you'll surprise yourself how easily a good hit on the five is made here.
 
I totally agree with SJM here. The kick is not that hard, and if you hit the 3rd rail right before the 5 you have a very good chance of at least making him bank the 5.

I really dont think it matters if its for fun, tourney, or money either. The right shot is the right shot no matter what the situation.

Woody
 
mullyman said:
Well, for myself "Play to win" doesn't mean taking a wild 2 rail shot on a combination that "might" go. Either way you are screwed but at least with the nudge you give him the chance to screw up.
MULLY
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Exactly what I said in my post but with different words.
 
woody_968 said:
I totally agree with SJM here. The kick is not that hard, and if you hit the 3rd rail right before the 5 you have a very good chance of at least making him bank the 5.

I really dont think it matters if its for fun, tourney, or money either. The right shot is the right shot no matter what the situation.

Woody
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Hitting the 5 is pretty good odds on this. If you've practiced it, it is makeable.
 
2_Fast_4_Fleas said:
I have a 100% chance of locking that 9 up and getting another shot on that one.
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No, you don't. If you don't think the chance of giving up a carom on the nine is very real, you're missing the boat here. I'd call it at least a 25% chance, even for a highly skilled player. I also think that even if you don't leave the carom, more than half the time, the next kick you'll face will be tougher than this one. Anyone who is so skilled that they'll never give up the carom on the nine when tying the balls up won't ever miss the two rail kick.
 
Maybe the chance of locking up the nine is not 100% but with the cue ball that close to the nine the percentage for a good player to do so is extremely high. The only time I wouldn't try to lock up the nine would be if I saw that with ball in hand they could position the five to the other side of the nine. That would certainly put me in a position for a loss. If that was the case then the kick is in order. The two rail kick as suggested is a fairly simple kick with a high percentage of hitting the five ball. But then I would know that it would be like casting my faith to the wind. Good things could happen with the kick as well as bad.

If they could not position the five behind the nine with ball in hand then the nudge is my choice because there is no where on the table that will put me in more trouble than I'm already in. Knowing that the best they could do with BIH is put me back to where I originally was then I would give up BIH to give them one chance to err with their safety.They would have to go off the five thin and take the cue ball two rails to get behind the nine.
 
dabarbr said:
Maybe the chance of locking up the nine is not 100% but with the cue ball that close to the nine the percentage for a good player to do so is extremely high. The only time I wouldn't try to lock up the nine would be if I saw that with ball in hand they could position the five to the other side of the nine. That would certainly put me in a position for a loss. If that was the case then the kick is in order.
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Now we're nearly together. I considered this very matter in post #28 in this thread. I concluded that this safety will be available if the nine is not left frozen to the five. However, even if the nine is left touching the five, the safety off the edge of the five under the seven, which is about as simple as it gets to execute, is nearly as deadly, as the long one rail response has the six ball, and possibly even the eight ball, complicating matters. The short one railer would be even tougher, as the nine will cover some of the five ball.
 
Andrew Manning said:
Set up: hill-hill against a strong opponent. He just played safe and left you this, but the 5 didn't land quite the way he intended. ...
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I trust myself more to get the 2- or 3-cushion hit than the little nudge.

This sort of shot would make a good challenge between two players who prefer different solutions. Each player starts with the shot he prefers and see who wins more games from the position. There is a small problem with the exact setup on this as the 5-9 line and space are critical. We've had other "How would you play this?" shots that would make good candidates for an AZB Room challenge.
 
sjm said:
If you don't think this is an easy kick, set it up and try it. I think you'll surprise yourself how easily a good hit on the five is made here.
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Making contact with the kick doesn't concern me in the least. I'm above A-class ranking here in Japan, been playing more than 25 years now. My concern is in what happens afterwards. Let's just agree that the correct shot is whatever the person at the table thinks is his best option. I go with the nudge. I'm a decent player and I like playing defensively. Don't forget that when he steps back to the table with BIH he has to worry about what you're gonna do if he makes a mistake.
MULLY
 
dabarbr said:
If they could not position the five behind the nine with ball in hand then the nudge is my choice because there is no where on the table that will put me in more trouble than I'm already in. Knowing that the best they could do with BIH is put me back to where I originally was then I would give up BIH to give them one chance to err with their safety.They would have to go off the five thin and take the cue ball two rails to get behind the nine.
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Exactly my thoughts on the matter. Even for a good player he's going to have to be playing pretty snazzy that day to thin the 5 and go across table and back to lock you up behind that 9. That 5 will most likely be peeking out enough no matter where he puts you back there....unless he actually freezes you to the 9. I still prefer not to take a winger unless I absolutely have to.

Now, if that combination was lined up perfectly? Yeah, I'd go with the kick. But again, he said "It might go". It amazes me how so many of the people on here decide on the lower percentage shot.
MULLY
 
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