you guys have to learn how to handicap a game with all kinds of players if you are gambling. doesn't matter how good they are if you have the best of the spot you will win over time. simple as that.
to make it easier. suppose a 4 minute miler was running against you for money. to make it an even bet you would ask for a one minute ten second spot if you run one in 5 minutes. simple as that. doesnt matter how fast he is if he cant bet your time with the spot you will win.
it is easier to beat a great player with the right spot than a terrible one as the terrible one will have a larger dispersion in his scores and can fool you.
and if you are in tournaments with pros that run out often you are a fish for throwing your money away so expect the inevitable result.
The thing is that people match up to win with their typical game, not their balls to the wall game. The better player has a lot more reserve than somebody that is little more than a banger. Then we get to read, "I win, but I always have to outrun the nuts to do it." Naah, if you really had to outrun the nuts you would rarely win. Truth is you gave a big enough spot you had to dig deep to win, and that is how it should be with a fair spot. No matter how big of a spot you give somebody if you win without having to dig deep the spot was well in your favor.
On the other hand, if the fish plays the match of his life he should win. That isn't likely to happen because he has put himself in a position he really doesn't expect to win. It has been my experience that players find a way to play up, or down, to their expectations. If the better player messes up, the lesser player will mess up worse!
When there is a large gap between the two, winners find a way to win, losers find a way to lose. The mathematics don't enter into things. I had it happen to me, in my early pool playing I couldn't beat one particular guy. Others even noticed it, other players that I drubbed regularly had beat on him all one evening, I came in and promptly lost to him over and over. I knew the problem, while I was a pretty insecure nobody on a high school campus he was the,
as in tha the, big man on campus. Facing him I had a feeling of inferiority that had nothing to do with pool but showed on the table. My game fell apart playing him. Recognizing it was a mental thing I kept trying to fight past it for about six months, never did find a way past him and losing to him two or three times a week did nothing for my game!
I was building self-confidence in several other ways and I continued to beat better and better pool players. I would have been better off avoiding the ex big man on campus but at that age I thought the best way to deal with challenges was to face them head on until they were defeated. I did just that with another strong player in the same time period.
I could beat the other guy anytime I wanted to but he cut balls like a god so that is what I challenged him at. It got to where everyone else in the place would quit play to watch our battles. I finally got to where I cut better than he did. That dragon was conquered. I never did beat the big man on campus consistently, we just started moving in different circles and faded apart. Just as well, I was making an alcoholic out of him playing for beer and wine!
Hu
