IPT- Vegas Betting Odds

Snapshot9 said:
First, the odds were probably generated, for the most part, by taking historical data off the internet, so Champion players that haven't won many tournaments where it is not recorded for posterity on the net will probably have greater odds than one where their wins are more on the net.
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I highly doubt this. There is not that much data on pool tournament results on the Internet, and it is not the quality that a firm like Stan James would like (is the data accurate and complete and verifiable). If there is a wealth of this data please post links, I'd like to see it as would many others. I believe there are small pockets of results for small cross-sections of the pool scene. More likely they had a bunch of people with some pool knowledge set the initial odds on gut feel, then let the wagers guide their movement (likely they let a computer do the odds adjustment).

Dave
 
I'll take some of that Brian Groce at 500 to 1 .....
also Antonio Lining , allen hopkins , and several others are way underrated ... I guess a lot of people dont know about 8-ball .....
 
DaveK said:
The odds will be adjusted as bets are collected. The original list was just to get things going. The final odds (at the close of betting) will be different, and based on the total bets spread across the field. Do not forget that the #1 rule in this game is that Stan James makes money on wagers. They do that very well and I expect this to be no different.

So here's a question. Let's say that Tanner places a $100 bet on Shane when his odds are 500:1. Then, at 'post time' Shanes odds are 100:1. Shane wins the tournament. What does Tanner get paid, at 500:1 or 100:1 ? Methinks it would be 100:1 , just like at the horse track (it doesn't matter about the odds at the time of the bet, it matters what the odds are at post time).

Dave
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....and here's the answer.....youthinks wrong Dave:D ....Anyone placing a bet with Stan James or any other internet online bookmaker will be given the odds available at the time the bet is struck and those are the odds that their bet will be settled at,irrespective of whether the final odds "at post time" are longer or shorter than they were when the bet was struck,for reasons which should be obvious to you if you think about it for a second or two;)

It is in fact impossible to place a bet with online bookmakers for an event of this nature at "starting price" odds.You will always be "on" at the current odds at the time you place the bet.

You can place a bet for a horse or dog race at "starting price" odds instead of taking the available odds at the time of the bet but not a pool tournament or a golf tournament etc.
 
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hippiepool said:
I'll take some of that Brian Groce at 500 to 1 .....
also Antonio Lining , allen hopkins , and several others are way underrated ... I guess a lot of people dont know about 8-ball .....
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....and even more people know nothing about betting and a balanced book.....this book is horrendously over-round and as a whole it is therefore terrible value for the punter because it is weighted way way way beyond the level of normal betting margins in the bookmakers favour:(
 
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DaveK said:
I highly doubt this. There is not that much data on pool tournament results on the Internet, and it is not the quality that a firm like Stan James would like (is the data accurate and complete and verifiable). If there is a wealth of this data please post links, I'd like to see it as would many others. I believe there are small pockets of results for small cross-sections of the pool scene. More likely they had a bunch of people with some pool knowledge set the initial odds on gut feel, then let the wagers guide their movement (likely they let a computer do the odds adjustment).

Dave
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Data from the World 8 (Fujairah) & 9 (Cardiff&Kaohshung) Pool Championships. Stan James even was title sponsor for one of the Cardiff's WPC.
 
If I am not mistaken lines are created to stimulate betting and not to predict the winner. I like the odds on Jason Miller, Joyner, Matlock and Stalev.
 
bandido said:
Data from the World 8 (Fujairah) & 9 (Cardiff&Kaohshung) Pool Championships. Stan James even was title sponsor for one of the Cardiff's WPC.
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These would be a couple of the 'pockets' of data I refered to. Unfortunately these data, even when all combined (how?) would not cover even 1/2 of the field. There is little to no data on many in the IPT, which makes any attempt to computerize the initial odds fruitless, which was my point.

Also, thanks to those who ansered my question about what odds bets are paid on, apparently I should stick to the ponys :)

Dave
 
DaveK said:
These would be a couple of the 'pockets' of data I refered to. Unfortunately these data, even when all combined (how?) would not cover even 1/2 of the field. There is little to no data on many in the IPT, which makes any attempt to computerize the initial odds fruitless, which was my point.

Also, thanks to those who ansered my question about what odds bets are paid on, apparently I should stick to the ponys :)

Dave
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Sorry Dave, I thought NoStroke's reply answered your question. I'd say too that they go by the odds at the time the bet was placed. I somewhat remember getting higher proceeds than a buddy while in Cardiff on a bet on Hsia Hui Kai back in 2003. He placed a bet after finding out that I did.
 
memikey said:
....and even more people know nothing about betting and a balanced book.....this book is horrendously over-round and as a whole it is therefore terrible value for the punter because it is weighted way way way beyond the level of normal betting margins in the bookmakers favour:([/QUOTE


well , they have some "killer" 8-ball players at between 66 and 500 to 1 so I dont think it is in their favor at all.....( hoping not to knock anyones action , i'm not even buying that it's for real).
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hippiepool said:
memikey said:
....and even more people know nothing about betting and a balanced book.....this book is horrendously over-round and as a whole it is therefore terrible value for the punter because it is weighted way way way beyond the level of normal betting margins in the bookmakers favour:([/QUOTE


well , they have some "killer" 8-ball players at between 66 and 500 to 1 so I dont think it is in their favor at all.....( hoping not to knock anyones action , i'm not even buying that it's for real).
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With so many players and only one eventual winner the higher odds only
increase the books chances. The bets will be spread out somewhat on the higher odds players.
SJ is limiting the bet amounts based on odds to help counter a longshot
hurting them. Still good odds for the bettor but for the book there will
be only one winner.
The higher odds will surely entice people to bet when most of the field is 100-1 or higher. The top guys will get their share of the bets as well which should help level the pool.

I dont think getting a good player at high odds is a bad deal for the bettor
at all. The book will get theirs so at least with the high odds a chance
at a few people beating the book is possible.
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Colin Colenso said:
btw: Fu and Liu had their Visa's rejected first time around (thanks US government:mad: ) but today Fu got his visa after a lot of pushing for a 2nd interview. Thanks to the IPT for sending the embassy faxes to try to help.

Unfortunately Liu Wei was again rejected on his 2nd attempt today so he won't be going barring a miracle. Apparently because he's not married, doesn't own houses, work for a company etc. Way to go bureaucrats for ruining a pro-player's dream of a career.
Colin
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Colin,
Ask Mr.Liu to fax a note to China's Ambassador to the United States and explain the circumstances. Send too copies of his passport, US Visa application reference number and the letter from IPT. What'll happen here is that the Ambassador will contact INS and guarantee safe conduct and financial backing (stating that he won't be a financial burden to the US Gov).

This is usually my last ditch effort for Phil. players that I assist for Japan tournaments (Japan visa)and the WPC-Cardiff(UK visa). I've been lucky to get same day results. Also duiring the interview, he should show financial capability for his stay in the United States. Credit cards and current statements or travellers cheques equivalent to US$300/day of stay. An expense projection break-down will also help. Lodging($175/day at The Venetian-required of participants), food and travel expenses to include roundtrip plane fares (CHN-LAX-CHN &LAX-LV-LAX).
Good luck to Mr. Liu Wei.

Edit: Don't blame the INS, they're just doing their job. If Mr. Liu wants to play in the IPT NA8 real bad then he should try all avenues. One's the above.
 
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hippiepool said:
memikey said:
....and even more people know nothing about betting and a balanced book.....this book is horrendously over-round and as a whole it is therefore terrible value for the punter because it is weighted way way way beyond the level of normal betting margins in the bookmakers favour:([/QUOTE


well , they have some "killer" 8-ball players at between 66 and 500 to 1 so I dont think it is in their favor at all.....( hoping not to knock anyones action , i'm not even buying that it's for real).
Click to expand...

Hippiepool,no disrespect intended, but if you can't recognise by some very simple calculations that the cumulative odds in this book are overall,taken as a whole, HUGELY and I do mean HUGELY! in the bookmakers favour,then you might want to consider taking some night school arithmetic classes;)

To draw you a parallel,the odds against how two coins when flipped will land are:-

3/1 against 2 heads
3/1 against 2 tails
1/1(Evens) against 1 head and 1 tail

How many people would be interested in having a bet if the bookmaker was only offering you:-

2/1
2/1
1/2

?? Not many I think.Punters might still be tempted if the prices were say:-

11/4
11/4
4/5

ie.... still in the books favour but to reasonable margins.

Mathematically this pool tournament book is similar to the first example ie overall very poor value to the punters as a whole.The odds as a whole are much lower than they should be.It is sometimes difficult to see that when such big numbers are posted on the boards.

Naturally if you can identify someone who the bookmaker has overpriced,being sure to take into account the fact that the field is under priced as a whole to begin with, you might still be able to find some genuine value but I suspect they are very few and far between.Good luck:D
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I see that the odds have been recalculated. Bernie has been moved down in my area. I still can't figure out why Monica Webb is down there though. They need to look at the WPBA website to get the women's standings. I think Monica is ranked #3. :confused:

And sorry, Ryan, but Ryan Keller above me is just wrong! :p Bernie definitely plays better than he does too. And putting Rafael down near the bottom at 600/1 is totally out of line. He won a big tournament up here that included the Canadians, Vidas and Tourangeau.
 
memikey said:
hippiepool said:
Hippiepool,no disrespect intended, but if you can't recognise by some very simple calculations that the cumulative odds in this book are overall,taken as a whole, HUGELY and I do mean HUGELY! in the bookmakers favour,then you might want to consider taking some night school arithmetic classes;)

To draw you a parallel,the odds against how two coins when flipped will land are:-

3/1 against 2 heads
3/1 against 2 tails
1/1(Evens) against 1 head and 1 tail

How many people would be interested in having a bet if the bookmaker was only offering you:-

2/1
2/1
1/2

?? Not many I think.Punters might still be tempted if the prices were say:-

11/4
11/4
4/5

ie.... still in the books favour but to reasonable margins.

Mathematically this pool tournament book is similar to the first example ie overall very poor value to the punters as a whole.The odds as a whole are much lower than they should be.It is sometimes difficult to see that when such big numbers are posted on the boards.

Naturally if you can identify someone who the bookmaker has overpriced,being sure to take into account the fact that the field is under priced as a whole to begin with, you might still be able to find some genuine value but I suspect they are very few and far between.Good luck:D
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not really being an "odds" expert like yourself , it is my opinion that it depends upon how much is wagered on a given player or players , which remains to be seen ...a player that is getting 500 to 1 odds can really make a difference. by the way , I'll take 10 to 1 odds and play anyone on the list .
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memikey said:
Hippiepool,no disrespect intended, but if you can't recognise by some very simple calculations that the cumulative odds in this book are overall,taken as a whole, HUGELY and I do mean HUGELY! in the bookmakers favour,then you might want to consider taking some night school arithmetic classes;)

...

Mathematically this pool tournament book is similar to the first example ie overall very poor value to the punters as a whole.The odds as a whole are much lower than they should be.It is sometimes difficult to see that when such big numbers are posted on the boards.

Naturally if you can identify someone who the bookmaker has overpriced,being sure to take into account the fact that the field is under priced as a whole to begin with, you might still be able to find some genuine value but I suspect they are very few and far between.Good luck:D
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Yes, I was just making this comment to a friend of mine. I did some quick calculations and it looks like the house is taking, on average, about forty five cents of every dollar bet. So really the "fair" odds should start at about 26 to 1 for Efren, Archer, Bustamante and go from there. Of course the house needs to take a cut, but this seems excessive.
 
I thought it was intersting that Loree Jon Jones was listed up there with Allison at 350:1 since she hasn't done anything of note for quite some time.
 
whitewolf said:
Why isn't C. Colensco listed?!!!

I wanted the million to one odds darnit. :mad:
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He is there-500-1 currently.

Here are current odds for comparison purposes:

Archer, Johnny 14/1
Reyes, Efren 14/1
Bustamante, Fransisco 14/1
Pagulayan, Alex 16/1
Morris, Rodney 16/1
Immonen, Mika 16/1
Souquet, Ralf 16/1
Manalo, Marlon 16/1
Orcollo, Dennis 18/1
Deuel, Cory 18/1
Hohmann, Thorsten 20/1
Strickland, Earl 20/1
Jones, Jeremy 25/1
Alcano, Ronato 25/1
Ortmann, Oliver 28/1
Feijen, Niels 33/1
Daulton, Shannon 33/1
Chamat, Marcus 33/1
Lely, Alex 50/1
Parcia, Jose 50/1
Valle, Gandy 50/1
O'Sullivan, Ronnie 50/1
Sansouci, George 66/1
Owen, Gabe 66/1
Breedlove, George 66/1
Hatch, Dennis 80/1
Kiamco, Warren 80/1
Luat, Rodolfo 80/1
Williams, Charlie 80/1
Adkins, Dee 80/1
Basavich, Dan 100/1
Hann, Quinten 100/1
Alcaide, David 100/1
Majid, Imran 100/1
Putnam, Shawn 100/1
Davenport, Kim 100/1
Miller, Jason 100/1
Garrahan, Teddy 100/1
Hundal, Raj 100/1
Tot, Sandor 100/1
Schmidt, John 100/1
Takahashi, K 100/1
Robles, Tony 100/1
Foldes, Vilmos 100/1
Petroni, Fabio 100/1
Davis, Mike 100/1
Sambajon, Santos 100/1
Dominguez, Ernesto 100/1
Kucharo, Jon 125/1
Liu, Wie 125/1
Kutcher, John 125/1
Wiseman, Ron 125/1
Frost, Scott 125/1
Varner, Nick 125/1
Bryant, Charles 125/1
Storm, Tom 125/1
Lining, Antonio 125/1
Eberle, Max 125/1
Massey, Mike 150/1
Ginn, Anthony 150/1
Runnels, Ike 150/1
Boening, Shane Van 150/1
Watson, Gerry 150/1
Mekari, Tomoki 150/1
Paez, Ismael 150/1
Diks, Rico 150/1
Sigel, Mike 150/1
Stalev, Evgenji 150/1
Saez, Rob 150/1
Hill, Mick 150/1
Van Den Berg, Nick 150/1
Peach, Daryl 175/1
Mccready, Keith 175/1
Okumura, T 175/1
Salvas, Luc 175/1
Kirkwood, Jason 200/1
Goh, Tuan Kiat 200/1
Hjorleifson, Erik 200/1
Matlock, David 200/1
Fisher, Dennis 200/1
Putnik, Ivica 200/1
Schwartz, Larry 200/1
Vidas, Mike 200/1
Eckert, Ralf 200/1
Kennedy, Thomas 200/1
Vickery, Howard 200/1
Edey, T 200/1
Potier, Paul 200/1
Wetch, Jimmy 200/1
Nevel, Larry 200/1
Appleton, Darren 200/1
Hopkins, Allen 200/1
Montal, Edwin 200/1
Frank, Troy 200/1
Crosby, Tony 200/1
Boyes, Karl 200/1
Abernathy, Jeff 200/1
Martin, Ray 250/1
Hogue, Greg 250/1
Rempe, Jim 250/1
Mladenovic, Goran 250/1
Fusco, Pete 250/1
Mckenna, Rob 250/1
Chenman, Lee 250/1
Younger, Johl 250/1
Groce, Brian 250/1
Orme, Chris 250/1
Facquet, Vincent 250/1
Zimmerman, Michael 250/1
Joyner, Cliff 250/1
Juva, Markus 250/1
Morris, Carl 250/1
Schmidt, Michael 250/1
Townsend, Scotty 250/1
Macias, John 250/1
Matthews, Grady 250/1
Klasovic, Andreja 250/1
Lohtander, Marko 250/1
Harper, Corey 300/1
White, Jimmy 300/1
Wheeler, Adam 300/1
Marquez, Marco 300/1
Gonzalez, Rafael 300/1
Moore, Steven 300/1
Gulyassy, Mike 300/1
Harrison, Phil 300/1
Tademy, Mark 300/1
Franken, Aaron 300/1
Beaufils, Yannick 300/1
Holtz, Pat 300/1
Hunter, Bobby 300/1
Chohan, Tony 300/1
Acosta, Roland 300/1
Tourangeau, Stan 300/1
Barger, Denver 350/1
Cernero, Michael 350/1
West, Dallas 350/1
Incardona, William 350/1
Calderon, Jerry 350/1
Santl, Stephen 350/1
Crane, Wade 350/1
Ditoro, John 350/1
Bartram, Chris 350/1
Gay, Leil 350/1
Minici, Joe 350/1
Fisher, Allison 350/1
Corr, Karen 400/1
Abood, Gary 400/1
Wims, John 400/1
Czetli, Aaron 400/1
Reljic, David 400/1
Walden, James 400/1
Kelly, Ed 400/1
Weast, Jim 400/1
Koukiadakis, Andreas 400/1
Lebron, Mike 400/1
Fusco, Jimmy 400/1
Fu, Jianbo 400/1
Saleh, Brian 400/1
Jones, Sammy 400/1
Manabu, Mori 400/1
Jahnke, Bernd 400/1
Jakulj, Zlatko 400/1
Butera, Lou 500/1
Murray, Austin 500/1
Laurance, Ewa 500/1
Monday, Sam 500/1
Catledge, Wayne 500/1
Raybone, Neil 500/1
Thornfeldt, Helena 500/1
Penegar, Jonathon 500/1
Condo, Louis 500/1
Roberts, James 500/1
Broxson, David 500/1
Raney, Jim 500/1
Gunnar, Leonardo 500/1
Colenso, Colin 500/1
Brienza, Paul 500/1
Travers, Laurant 500/1
Butera, Sal 500/1
Rivera, Arturo 500/1
Salazar, Lance 500/1
Diliberto, Danny 500/1
Amine, Ouahbi 500/1
Carvajal, Alejandro 500/1
Alvarez, Frank 500/1
Dodson, Robin 500/1
Broumpton, Richard 500/1
Jones, Loree Jon 500/1
Martinez, Rafael 600/1
Hofstatter, Gerda 600/1
Keller, Ryan 650/1
Broadhurst, Jackie 750/1
Ellerby, Sarah 750/1
Friend, Bernie 750/1
Sakai, Miyuki 750/1
Webb, Monica 750/1
Kenniston, Mary 750/1
Carter, Linda 750/1
 
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