Mike Page, FargoRate, Greg Hogue, and the Mosconi Cup

Greg Hogue is a perfect example of the problems with FargoRate when it comes to changes in skill level. I didn't listen to the podcast, but it sounds like he may have played thousands of games under the influence of meth. Now he's off meth and playing better. It will take years for his rating to reflect anything like his true skill level.

Hogue finished 17th at the US Open alongside 800-rated players like Wu Kun Lin, Oi, Feijen, Ko Pin Yi, and so on. Who are you going to believe, his 699 rating or your lying eyes?

Now is this an extreme case? Sure. But it's emblematic of the (reasonable) choice made to prioritize stability over responsiveness. There are pros and cons to every model and it's not nitpicky to suss them out.
Or, he's an example of consequences for actions. His actions were playing under an influence, and his consequence is that it's going to take time for him to fix his rating.

You're a perfect example of someone who just doesn't agree with Fargo but can't come up with a solid reason why it's bad (even with using lots of big words).
 
Or, he's an example of consequences for actions. His actions were playing under an influence, and his consequence is that it's going to take time for him to fix his rating.

You're a perfect example of someone who just doesn't agree with Fargo but can't come up with a solid reason why it's bad (even with using lots of big words).
I actually love the Fargo/Bradley-Terry rating setup. It’s a great system and I’ve coded up my own modified version for fun for my own league.

I have posted some obvious issues with the model. Every model has problems. This is not some personal attack on Mike or an attack on the concept of rating players.

On average, in the aggregate, and across many contexts, Fargo has proven its worth and then some.
 
Ok Folks here is the skinny. I did this for you all to draw your own conclusions.

The last 112 games recorded in Fargo rate for Mr. Hogue return the following results.

This includes the US open. Is this man on fire?

View attachment 668214
Thank you for doing this! Now at least we know. I love FargoRate and suspected it would be close to his current rating. But didn’t truly know either way.

No idea why it was a big secret or why Mike wouldn’t just run the numbers quick.

Much appreciated.

EDIT*: it looks like these games are misleading.
 
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Ok Folks here is the skinny. I did this for you all to draw your own conclusions.

The last 112 games recorded in Fargo rate for Mr. Hogue return the following results.

This includes the US open. Is this man on fire?

View attachment 668214
Now I don't know exactly what Hogue should or should not be rated, but not including the Sandcastle Open (which he won in June) in this table was, as they say, a choice.

Presumably the numbers would look a bit different with these games included:
 
Half the top players I know locally all use drugs. I think if they stopped, they'd play worse. I don't know how M compares, but the one I'm talking about is H and its related pain meds.
Half the top players I know locally all use drugs. I think if they topped, they'd play worse. I don't know how M compares, but the one I'm talking about is H and its related pain meds.

My point being I don't think there is a huge effect being on or off drugs as far as pool performance goes.
I would argue there is. I think drugs do help in the short term, stay up longer, focused for more time, etc. But real confidence gains after drugs must come from within, that is what he has now brought to the table. That is what wins.
 
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Now I don't know exactly what Hogue should or should not be rated, but not including the Sandcastle Open (which he won in June) in this table was, as they say, a choice.

Presumably the numbers would look a bit different with these games included:
Didn't the Sandcastle Open only have 32 players? Not a lot of matches with that size of field, and they were races to 7. Hogue beat Vangelov, Olson, Lampaan, Pinegar, Dominguez, and Olson again, if I have it right.
 
Didn't the Sandcastle Open only have 32 players? Not a lot of matches with that size of field, and they were races to 7. Hogue beat Vangelov, Olson, Lampaan, Pinegar, Dominguez, and Olson again, if I have it right.
Yes - this is one of the stranger things I've seen on here in quite some time. If you really wanted to make a case for a Mosconi underdog, I'd say Michigan's Jeremy Seaman would be a more realistic consideration. I would actually be quite nervous watching someone like Hogue trying to compete on that stage. While his story sounds quite inspiring, there are situations where you are just setting someone up to fail. That may be one of them.
 
How do we find the Matchroom rankings list of USA players? I read in this thread that Greg was #4 on that list. Would someone link the list please?
 
How do we find the Matchroom rankings list of USA players? I read in this thread that Greg was #4 on that list. Would someone link the list please?
You’re on the internet but don’t know how to look up something on the internet? Your handle should be “iusedtobesmart.”

He is #4 for US players and #54 for world players. Kinda says something about the depth of US pool….
 
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Well, I'm a glutton for punishment and decided to recreate the table posted earlier in this thread using all of the 2022 results posted on AZB's Greg Hogue page. (Hopefully without any major typos :) ) I don't know whether the 112-game pullout was intentionally deceptive but it doesn't tell a full story of Hogue's 2022 level of play.

He is performing in the 750 range this year. Is this good enough to make the Mosconi Cup? Debatable, but it does put him in the discussion with guys like Shane Wolford (749) and Jeremy Jones (747).
 
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Well, I'm a glutton for punishment and decided to recreate the table posted earlier in this thread using all of the 2022 results posted on AZB's Greg Hogue page. (Hopefully without any major typos :) ) I don't know whether the 112-game pullout was intentionally deceptive but it doesn't tell a full story of Hogue's 2022 level of play.

He is performing in the 750 range this year. Is this good enough to make the Mosconi Cup? Debatable, but it does put him in the discussion with guys like Shane Wolford (749) and Jeremy Jones (747).
Wow…the plot thickens…

All this wild goose chase because Mike Page won’t open up his data…or at least share his findings on this simple (but important) request.
 
At the very least, I have no idea where rows 7-10 came from in the table in this post:


Happy to add them to my calculations if they came from 2022 tournaments. Rows 1-6 match up with the US Open results.
 
Yes - this is one of the stranger things I've seen on here in quite some time. If you really wanted to make a case for a Mosconi underdog, I'd say Michigan's Jeremy Seaman would be a more realistic consideration. I would actually be quite nervous watching someone like Hogue trying to compete on that stage. While his story sounds quite inspiring, there are situations where you are just setting someone up to fail. That may be one of them.
I would take Demetrius Jelatis in the underdog field.
 
tx5Spou.png


Well, I'm a glutton for punishment and decided to recreate the table posted earlier in this thread using all of the 2022 results posted on AZB's Greg Hogue page. (Hopefully without any major typos :) ) I don't know whether the 112-game pullout was intentionally deceptive but it doesn't tell a full story of Hogue's 2022 level of play.

He is performing in the 750 range this year. Is this good enough to make the Mosconi Cup? Debatable, but it does put him in the discussion with guys like Shane Wolford (749) and Jeremy Jones (747).
I simply started at the most recent game he logged in fargorate in the us open and went back to where I felt it was a good representation of his most recent play. It was only comprised of the two most recent events he played in. One of which is missing on your sheet. Again this is straight from fargorate not from a third party. No deception intended. The same information Mike Page would see if he decided to play as I have access to his entire match history through LMS. Greg played 18 matches that are logged in fargorate between the DFW and the US open that are not in the above chart.
 
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I simply started at the most recent game he logged in fargorate in the us open and went back to where I felt it was a good representation of his most recent play. It was only comprised of the two most recent events he played in. One of which is missing on your sheet. Again this is straight from fargorate not from a third party. No deception intended. The same information Mike Page would see if he decided to play as I have access to his entire match history through LMS.
Which event is missing? How do you get a view of Greg's full FargoRate profile to see which games are included?
 
Which event is missing? How do you get a view of Greg's full FargoRate profile to see which games are included?
There is a ton missing. I view it through CSI league management software. I don't think my ability to do so was intended by LMS but it's there if you know how to find it.

Here is a sample of where I got this from newest to oldest. The matches that show even wins and losses were probably handicapped events but the actual win-loss is all Fargorate considers.
 

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