Mike Page, FargoRate, Greg Hogue, and the Mosconi Cup

[skip100]

There is a ton missing. I view it through CSI league management software. I don't think my ability to do so was intended by LMS but it's there if you know how to find it.

Here is a sample of where I got this from newest to oldest

Cool.

At any rate, for the events on AZB's summary page, Greg's summarized tournament ratings for 2022 (weighted average of each match rating in a tournament to create a single tourney performance rating) would be 776, 772, 739, 732, and 753. Given that, I'm not surprised he is blanching at the 699 rating. Based on those screenshots it appears that AZB's results history may be missing some of his weaker performances though.

 

[Coos Cues]

There is a ton missing. I view it through CSI league management software. I don't think my ability to do so was intended by LMS but it's there if you know how to find it.

Here is a sample of where I got this from newest to oldest. The matches that show even wins and losses were probably handicapped events but the actual win-loss is all Fargorate considers.

If anything the information in the chart you posted was cherry picked somewhere along the line.

 

[gerryf]

Well, I'm a glutton for punishment and decided to recreate the table posted earlier in this thread using all of the 2022 results posted on AZB's Greg Hogue page. (Hopefully without any major typos ) I don't know whether the 112-game pullout was intentionally deceptive but it doesn't tell a full story of Hogue's 2022 level of play.

He is performing in the 750 range this year. Is this good enough to make the Mosconi Cup? Debatable, but it does put him in the discussion with guys like Shane Wolford (749) and Jeremy Jones (747).

That's cool!

I can find Hogue's page on AZB, and click through to each tournament to see the tournament results, but where do you get the individual match results?

AZB's table is only showing tournaments where Hogue placed in the money, not all the tournaments he played in 2022.

 

[skip100]

If anything the information in the chart you posted was cherry picked.

This is everything that is available publicly on AZB for 2022. Sorry I don't have access to the LMS to get data that is hidden from public view

 

[skip100]

That's cool!

I can find Hogue's page on AZB, and click through to each tournament to see the tournament results, but where do you get the individual match results?

This table is also only showing data where Hogue placed in the money, not all the matches he played in 2022.

I tracked down each tournament's bracket page and filled in the data manually.

 

[Coos Cues]

AZB's table is only showing matches where Hogue placed in the money, not all the matches he played in 2022.

Which pretty much explains things

 

[skip100]

Losing 9-5 to John Braud (570 rating) is certainly not a good look for someone wanting to make the Mosconi Cup team.

Given that only his money tournaments show up on AZB, and it appears that there were some non-money showings this year, then we're talking about a 750 rating only in his best events. So he should have no business even thinking about the Mosconi Cup.

 

[skogstokig]

I would actually be quite nervous watching someone like Hogue trying to compete on that stage. While his story sounds quite inspiring, there are situations where you are just setting someone up to fail. That may be one of them.

sounds like another navy seal moment if JJ decides to go with this guy

 

[BasementDweller]

Wow…the plot thickens…

All this wild goose chase because Mike Page won’t open up his data…or at least share his findings on this simple (but important) request.

I think you're missing the point. Is it really fair of Mike to get involved in someone's PR campaign at the expense of other players? I applaud him for not getting involved in this.

 

[skip100]

Mike could also be sharing this data privately with the people who actually matter when it comes to selecting a Mosconi Cup player, a group which does not include us.

 

[Sheldon]

Mr. Page and the rest of the Fargorate people are doing a great service. They are also a business, and are 100% entitled to keep certain details private, to protect their interests. I trust them and have had nothing but great interactions with them.

 

[iusedtoberich]

Mr. Page and the rest of the Fargorate people are doing a great service. They are also a business, and are 100% entitled to keep certain details private, to protect their interests. I trust them and have had nothing but great interactions with them.

I honestly doubt any player from Team USA or JJ is even considering Greg. No disrespect to him, as he's a good regional player. Up until this "campaign" I doubt anyone outside of his region has ever heard of him. Yes he's a good player, but he's not a national level player. This whole campaign has turned into an underdog popularity contest, IMO.

 

[gerryf]

Up until this "campaign" I doubt anyone outside of his region has ever heard of him. Yes he's a good player, but he's not a national level player. This whole campaign has turned into an underdog popularity contest, IMO.

I don't think this qualifies as a 'campaign'. When you look back at this thread there's only a couple of people pushing the idea that Hogue is underrated. As you've pointed out, Hogue is known as a good regional player, but few if any people would consider him a top player at the national level.

 

[TheLoneSilencer]

Anyone who believes in Fargo is a fool plain & simple.

 

[BasementDweller]

Anyone who believes in Fargo is a fool plain & simple.

I've been called worse things.

 

[hang-the-9]

Anyone who believes in Fargo is a fool plain & simple.

Sounds like Edison talking about AC power LOL

Can you explain how that horrible system seems to predict matches so well if it does not work?

 

[easy-e]

Sounds like Edison talking about AC power LOL

Can you explain how that horrible system seems to predict matches so well if it does not work?

Because everyone thinks they're over rated because someone has a higher rating than they do. That was easy!

 

[SEB]

I think you're missing the point. Is it really fair of Mike to get involved in someone's PR campaign at the expense of other players? I applaud him for not getting involved in this.

That’s a good and fair point…but truth and transparency are always a better route.

AND…Proving there isn’t a lag in rating is a way better way for him to spend his time than trying to correlate spot shots to his algorithm.

Btw…I say all this with great respect for Mike and FargoRate. Please take my criticism as mild annoyance in search of the truth.

 

[Poolplaya9]

I'm blown away he didn't give us the sauce on Hogue's last few months. Absolutely blown away. Like...what's the point of keeping it a secret!?

It makes me feel like what you're saying here with the "fargorate lag" carries some serious weight and that revealing his performance over the last few months might show some serious warts on the FargoRate system.

Thank you for doing this! Now at least we know. I love FargoRate and suspected it would be close to his current rating. But didn’t truly know either way.

No idea why it was a big secret or why Mike wouldn’t just run the numbers quick.

This situation is kind of like a tournament match where the players are arguing over whether a shot was a foul or not and there is an extremely knowledgeable member of the audience who had the perfect view of the shot, a better view than either of the players in fact, and knows with certainly whether it was or not. Should the audience member always pipe up unsolicited and give the answer to the players in the name of "truth and transparency" if the players hadn't asked for it? Well why not if they knew the answer for sure? Same basic thing here.

Mike Page is in the position of that audience member. If Mike did give the answer there would be people complaining that he shouldn't be butting in and trying to influence things one way or the other since there is a lot riding on it for various people and the involved parties didn't ask for his input (not publicly anyway). And if it turned out the answer wasn't good for Greg Hogue, as in if he hasn't been performing significantly above his Fargo lately as he is claiming, there would surely be people who would say that Mike only got involved because he must have something against Greg and wanted to try to make sure he didn't make the team. Etc. It's really a can't win situation.

I'm guessing that once the final player has been chosen for the team that Mike would be a little less hesitant about sharing whether the data supported or disputed Greg's claims since it can no longer affect anything and no longer carries the potential for being perceived as trying to influence who was chosen for the team.

 

[ShortBusRuss]

Then make all games entered into the system public.

Not free…public.

Yes.

Let me say it again... YES.

This is the way that the U.S. Chess Federation does it, and it is phenomenal. I am 47 years old, and I can still go back and look at results from chess tournaments I played in HIGH SCHOOL. Allowing people to "hide" their matches in the Fargorate app does absolutely nothing but encourage sandbagging and corruption.

USCF has made it EASY to run one's own tournament. Every USCF member pays a single yearly fee that allows them to be rated, and then maybe a $2-$3 fee per tournament. And every single result is publicly available.

Fargorate got in bed with BCA in order to lock down revenue, which means the "universal adoption" is not likely to come any time soon. I tried to look into Fargorating some local tournaments here in Germany, and it is like trying to decipher the Rosetta Stone to figure out how that would work. And it is prohibitively expensive, considering that the German league system has their own tracking website. I TRIED to submit an entire season or two of league data to Fargorate to get players in Hessen seeded into Fargorate to try to generate some interest, but got totally ignored by the Fargorate team when I submitted the data, in the format they requested.

The USCF makes it SUPER easy. Register as a tournament director.. Maybe pay a yearly tournament director fee. Then, hold rated tournaments for people with USCF memberships, with a very modest amount going back to USCF from the tournament fee. I know chess clubs that hold 5-6 tournaments a month. One on a weekend, and then a couple more weeknight fast tournaments.

People can talk all the crap they like about Fargorate, but the fact remains is... Ratings provide incentive for improvement. WHICH is sorely needed as tournament attendance is falling in America. American pool players who play above a certain level (but WAY below pro..) feel they are entitled to earn money, so they play to earn money, not to get better. When is why we are likely to get skull-****ed by Team Euro at the Mosconi Cup.

In summary: Fargorate is the best rating system available to pool players right now, and would WORK if Mike Page and his team were determined to get it universally adopted. Heck, provide free access to the tournament director software for a year for European leagues.

There is so much more money to be made here, but Mike looks like he is looking for a quick buck, rather than to mirror the adoption rate of an organization like the U.S. Chess Federation. I mean CRAP... I am betting that the USCF would probably talk directly to him and advise on how to get mass adoption of a rating system. And how to run a member rating site that is useable, and gives players the ability to review their performance over a long time. AND...... If you manage to beat a great player...... It's right there your profile, so you can show your buddies.