Mosconi Cup 2022

[sjm]

What is the “one extra luck factor”?

Well, as Easy-E noted, the redraw is the extra luck factor, for two reasons.

Reason 1: The Bye
First, somebody will, by random draw, get a bye in any round that starts with an odd number of players, although a player can't get a second bye unless everyone left has already had a bye during the event.

The bye rule proved very important at the 2020 Derby City Classic, which was the last one contested. In the Bank Pool event, just three players remained prior to the last draw. Entering round thirteen, Dennis Orcullo was undefeated and Billy Thorpe and Evan Lunda each carried a loss. As it turned out, Evan Lunda drew the bye, and when Orcullo beat and eliminated Thorpe, Evan's bye turned out to be a bye into the final. Evan Lunda ultimately finished second, earning $8,000, while Billy Thorpe came third and cashed for $5,350, so Evan's bye proved to be worth quite a bit of money.

Reason 2: Undefeated players can draw players with a loss
In regular double elimination, once you beat a player, as long as you stay undefeated, you can't face them again until the finals. Similarly, if they beat you, you can't draw them again until they take a loss except in the finals. At Derby City, however, when the redraw is done, no distinction is made between the players carrying a loss and those that remain undefeated. This means that you can, and often do, draw a player you have already played. In fact, you can draw the same player twice in a row. Imagine drawing Shane, losing, and then drawing him again in the very next round. Similarly, you might beat him and then draw him again in the very next round. The Derby brings new meaning to the term "luck of the draw."

So, yes, the redraw is the extra luck factor.

 

[Bob Jewett]

... This means that you can, and often do, draw a player you have already played. In fact, you can draw the same player twice in a row. Imagine drawing Shane, losing, and then drawing him again in the very next round. ,,,

In the worst case, it's three in a row. A and B play. A loses and rebuys. They play again. B loses and rebuys. They draw each other a third time. One of them loses in their third match and is eliminated. It's possible but unlikely that this will happen to the top two players in the first three rounds.

There are lots of alternatives but I think they are unwilling to change horses. One would be to change to simple single elimination when there are fewer than 64 (or 32) players left. Give whatever byes there are to players who have no losses but do not give byes to any player who has already had one. The main point of the buybacks is to get more money into the pot and after the field is pared down, that's not so useful compared to the hassle.

 

[sjm]

In the worst case, it's three in a row. A and B play. A loses and rebuys. They play again. B loses and rebuys. They draw each other a third time. One of them loses in their third match and is eliminated. It's possible but unlikely that this will happen to the top two players in the first three rounds.

There are lots of alternatives but I think they are unwilling to change horses. One would be to change to simple single elimination when there are fewer than 64 (or 32) players left. Give whatever byes there are to players who have no losses but do not give byes to any player who has already had one. The main point of the buybacks is to get more money into the pot and after the field is pared down, that's not so useful compared to the hassle.

I'd be disappointed if they changed things. Things work just fine the way they are done, and the current format has never gotten in the way of the worthiest players.

 

[garczar]

I'd be disappointed if they changed things. Things work just fine the way they are done, and the current format has never gotten in the way of the worthiest players.

Agree. People start planning for nxt yrs DCC about 30sec after the event ends so they must be doing something right.

 

[Bob Jewett]

Agree. People start planning for nxt yrs DCC about 30sec after the event ends so they must be doing something right.

They are there every year and they pay without a problem. There are also a lot of interesting matches both in the tournament and on the side.

But that does not mean that there is no room for improvement.

 

[sjm]

I think a top five in the DCC 9-ball would put Josh Roberts very much on Jeremy Jones' radar, but as long as he outperforms other Team USA hopefuls (other than SVB and Skyler), he'll be off to a positive start.

I'm figuring that in 2022, the picks will be based on tournament results, unlike in 2021 in which Earl was given a spot that was unfathomable given his general lack of participation in American-based events and his mediocre tournament record when he did participate.

Time to return to a merit-based selection process.

 

[jay helfert]

What is the “one extra luck factor”?

The luck of who you draw each round.

 

[mikepage]

I think a top five in the DCC 9-ball would put Josh Roberts very much on Jeremy Jones' radar, but as long as he outperforms other Team USA hopefuls (other than SVB and Skyler), he'll be off to a positive start.

I'm figuring that in 2022, the picks will be based on tournament results, unlike in 2021 in which Earl was given a spot that was unfathomable given his general lack of participation in American-based events and his mediocre tournament record when he did participate.

Time to return to a merit-based selection process.

The US players who have performed over 765 for 2020/2021 are SVB, Sky, Bergman, Pinegar, Thorpe, Roberts, Dechaine, Styer, and Meglino.

Then over 755 are Deuel, Dominguez, Seaman, Engel, and Poteet

Going down to 740 brings in Chohan, Sossei, Lunda, McMinn, Hall, Martin, Ussery, Wolford, and Lombardo.

Have to be a little careful here. When we look at only recent play, we are closer to NOW, which is good. But doing that means we are looking at much less data and therefore more slop in the result. A little surprising we don't hear more talk about Meglino. He is over 770 for 1500 games in 2021.

 

[PoolPlayer4]

The US players who have performed over 765 for 2020/2021 are SVB, Sky, Bergman, Pinegar, Thorpe, Roberts, Dechaine, Styer, and Meglino.

Then over 755 are Deuel, Dominguez, Seaman, Engel, and Poteet

Going down to 740 brings in Chohan, Sossei, Lunda, McMinn, Hall, Martin, Ussery, Wolford, and Lombardo.

Have to be a little careful here. When we look at only recent play, we are closer to NOW, which is good. But doing that means we are looking at much less data and therefore more slop in the result. A little surprising we don't hear more talk about Meglino. He is over 770 for 1500 games in 2021.

Mike,

It is always interesting to hear your snapshots about what the data show. Does a user have access to do data analysis like this?

 

[9Ballr]

Fargo Rating of 774, surely we can find more players who are at least 800 +

 

[SmoothStroke]

I think a top five in the DCC 9-ball would put Josh Roberts very much on Jeremy Jones' radar, but as long as he outperforms other Team USA hopefuls (other than SVB and Skyler), he'll be off to a positive start.

I'm figuring that in 2022, the picks will be based on tournament results, unlike in 2021 in which Earl was given a spot that was unfathomable given his general lack of participation in American-based events and his mediocre tournament record when he did participate.

Time to return to a merit-based selection process.

Agree 150% on merit.... It's ridiculous to choose players any other way.
Imagine MLB allstars chosen for the team because it would be nice to see a player get a shot.
Sure that's nice, but idiotic. A guy is hitting 217, 6 RBI, 3 Hr, etc. deserves a shot ?
Why because two of his home runs were walk offs and the coach thinks he's a good fit?

If you want on the team, work harder, get your numbers up and make the team.
Shane is where he is because he broke his butt. I don't care how good you are, 2nd, 3rd best player in the country,,,Whoopty Dooo,,, if you didn't earn it you don't go to the Mosconi Cup.

Selecting a player because he deserves a shot, or Jeremy wants him, is bush league.
Work hard, travel, enter events, finish high, raise fargo rate, carry yourself well, work your ass off, and get on the Mosconi Team based on merit.

If you are not the top 5 you're out, work harder next year. Jump for joy if you finished 6th and an alternate is allowed , then the coach doesn't have to play.
This is not everybody gets a trophy,,,, earn it.

 

[garczar]

Fargo Rating of 774, surely we can find more players who are at least 800 +

Only 25 players in the world over 800. 3 in the US and Dechaine hardly plays anymore. Doubt he's still plays to that rating.

 

[mikepage]

[...]

The first important event of 2022 is the Turning Stone Classic near Syracuse, NY, which has a killer field. Josh is not listed as being in the field. After that, it's on to the Derby City Classic, so for Josh to get his Mosconi bid on track, he'll have to put in some solid work at the Derby.

[...]

We are 11 days away from the first ranking event on the WPA calendar for 2022, and it is in the USA.
In fact the first four ranking events of the year
--->happen over the next 3 months
--->are all in USA
--->have more than a quarter million dollars added $$

Five of the 9 players 820 or over on the world Fargo Rating list are signed up for this first event.
Ten entrants are 800 or over
Twenty two entrants are 780 or over

Here are the entrants rated over 700

 

[Island Drive]

Yapp? 817