I'm thinking based purely on Fargo, they shouldn't be winning 11-3. But I could be wrong.
I don't have the statistical knowledge to apply to an event with 10 players and doubles, but i wouldn't be shocked if 11-3 is in the margin of error when you take racks into account. Best I can do is by average: 12.8 FR delta between the teams, p = .522 in favor of Europe, they won .583 of the racks (63-45). That's a .061 deviation from expected, which i would say is reasonable. (Mike would probably cringe at my lack of sigfigs, and other errors, but there's a reason i don't do that for a living...)
At face value though:
- Pijus is the LOWEST rated player for Europe and he's #44ish (there's a lot of shared FRs in the 810s) in the world.
- There are 2 Americans that aren't even in the Top 100.
ALL these guys can run open racks, but when you start talking fringes is when you see the biggest difference between players.
- These tables are tight and fast. You need to be able to adjust and not miss balls.
- Eye test: USA isn't in the same
universe tactically as the Europeans. That will - and has - cost a ton of racks.
So conclusively:
- You need to miss less
- You need to break better
- You need to play safe at the right time, and succeed
- You need to avoid fouls and selling out racks
Better players do those things better and more consistently.
Lots of little things add up in a hurry and not in a good way for the US.