Mosconi Cup 2025, Dec. 3-6, Alexandra Palace, London

[mikepage]

[...]

Fargo seems to be understating the difference between the teams in recent years. We should be seeing 11-9, 11-8 contests based on the numbers and we’re not.

Below is about what FargoRate predicts in terms of scores (heights are percentages). While 11-8 or so is the most likely score, it still has only about 10% chance of being realized.

So more likely Europe wins 11 to 4-or-fewer than Europe wins 11-8
More likely USA wins than Europe wins 11-to-7, 8, or 9

Another thing worth considering is these probabilities treat the games as statistically independent. That generally seems to be a pretty good assumption, but Mosconi Cup is as far from generally as we get...

 

[sudocrushms]

Below is about what FargoRate predicts in terms of scores (heights are percentages). While 11-8 or so is the most likely score, it still has only about 10% chance of being realized.

So more likely Europe wins 11 to 4-or-fewer than Europe wins 11-8
More likely USA wins than Europe wins 11-to-7, 8, or 9

Another thing worth considering is these probabilities treat the games as statistically independent. That generally seems to be a pretty good assumption, but Mosconi Cup is as far from generally as we get...



View attachment 868728

 

[jax_joe]

 

[iusedtoberich]

View attachment 868730

Is that the 15 year dead horse, or only this single thread dead horse? hahahaha

 

[spartan]

I don't have the statistical knowledge to apply to an event with 10 players and doubles, but i wouldn't be shocked if 11-3 is in the margin of error when you take racks into account. Best I can do is by average: 12.8 FR delta between the teams, p = .522 in favor of Europe, they won .583 of the racks (63-45). That's a .061 deviation from expected, which i would say is reasonable. (Mike would probably cringe at my lack of sigfigs, and other errors, but there's a reason i don't do that for a living...)

At face value though:
- Pijus is the LOWEST rated player for Europe and he's #44ish (there's a lot of shared FRs in the 810s) in the world.
- There are 2 Americans that aren't even in the Top 100.

ALL these guys can run open racks, but when you start talking fringes is when you see the biggest difference between players.
- These tables are tight and fast. You need to be able to adjust and not miss balls.
- Eye test: USA isn't in the same universe tactically as the Europeans. That will - and has - cost a ton of racks.

So conclusively:
- You need to miss less
- You need to break better
- You need to play safe at the right time, and succeed
- You need to avoid fouls and selling out racks
Better players do those things better and more consistently.
Lots of little things add up in a hurry and not in a good way for the US.

Racks win % 58.3% Points/Matches won% 79% So yes the score should have been closer based on racks. USA lose number of points cos of those hill hill losses mainly cos of Tyler. Based on 58.3% win %, fairer score would be Europe 11-8.
USA also underperformed over long run. 3 wins in 19 years is about 16%. Pre event probability to win around 70% Europe USA 30% Based on 30% USA should have won 6x in 19 years. Even 6 wins, 13 losses in 19 years still dismal record . That is indication of long term difference in talent that requires long term planning. Short term tinkering may win few more cups but will not make much difference to long run result.