My thoughts on Sky vs SVB

[Tin Man]

In a match like this the main deciding factors are the break, run out consistency, moving, and mental fortitude.

I bet Sky. Before the match I felt it was even in the run out game, even in the moving game, and that Sky had a mental fortitude edge. I base that on what I've seen from the two of them over the last two years. The key to it all was that he'd have to neutralize any breaking edge that SVB had. In other words, I felt if Sky could break as consistently as he did last set against Dennis that he'd manage through the swings of the set better than SVB.

We saw this with Dennis and SVB. When Dennis played SVB 10 ball he lost because he can't win when SVB has a big breaking edge. But when they play 9 on the spot 9 ball then Dennis got there twice. Yes, it was close. But without going through the replay of the set my main point is that when Dennis neutralizes SVB's break then he can match his firepower and win on moving/mental toughness. At least at this time in their career.

I thought Sky could do the same. It looked good starting out when Sky opened with a 7 pack. But little by little his break got worse, and SVB's got better. And when SVB started breaking really good it seemed to fluster Sky. Instead of getting better, he got worse and worse. And somewhere mid-match Sky saw the writing on the wall. He just couldn't get his break going enough to keep up with SVB and had no chance to win the set because of this.

From there it was a travesty. He knew he had no way to the finish line and it showed in all parts of his game. He fell apart mentally and physically. His break got worse, he started missing balls, and his run out game was inconsistent.

I say all of this because for those who think the score of 150 to 114 means Shane is 30% better than Sky across the board they aren't seeing it correctly. Sky absolutely has what it takes to win in this format when his break is working. Unlike Dennis who never broke good 10 ball, Sky is capable of breaking good enough to win. I'm not sure why it broke down so I can't tell you what the future holds. Maybe he figures it out and puts it together in a way to stand up to SVB's barrage and beats him in the future. Maybe the gap between their breaks is insurmountable and SVB will always have a decisive advantage in terms of generating opportunities.

SVB proved he was the better player this weekend. One thing I know is that there is more to this than looking at Fargo Rate or resume and declaring that Sky will never win.

 

[Nick B]

Demetrius,
Generally you and I line up quite well on most topics. On this one...not so much. Everything you said is true except for one key element. Like Earl in his day SVB's HIGH-HIGH gear is the tallest in the land. When his engine warms up and he goes into Shane-train mode...no lead is safe. You get package after package and he goes full Beast-mode on everyone. Dennis is probably the only guy who could have come back on SVB like he did. Lets call that Buster Douglas vs Mike Tyson. All year DO has been in the box. Game hard and hungry. SVB did just a little too much fishing and why the hell not. The world was upside down and who knows when we were coming out of this. Thus fishing sounds like the prudent thing to do.

So he books a couple of losers and his closest American rival calls him out. Well Junior hold my beer because you just awoken the dragon. SVB went to the World Pool event and was probably 90%. Was cruising along and then somebody said lets change racks and tables. Well you have to adapt but he had a bad set.

People throw names out there like the Ko's, JL and Filler. All super players. I suspect playing 10ball they don't like it.... and if they do it's because it's a free-roll. The only guy SVB needs to keep his eyes on is Fedor (and maybe Wu Jia-qing and Raga). Look what SVB has done to Jayson Shaw in this format (Higher Fargo than DO). They came up with a format to neutralize his break. Now SVB has gone to the washroom and heard the speech. Next guy in the box won't like it.

 

[Tin Man]

Thanks Nick.

Yes, SVB's high gear hasn't been outrun. I just feel high gear isn't always decisive.

I compare it to a racing game. Some cars have better top speed, some have better acceleration, some handle corners better, etc. SVB has a higher top speed than anyone I've ever seen. In a long, straight course he is nearly impossible to beat.

When the course starts having a lot of curves and obstacles I'm not sure he likes it as much. Like playing Dennis 9 ball where the break added enough unpredictability he couldn't just stretch his legs and rain packages, he had to keep jockeying for shots. In this format high speed didn't win, it was about starting and stopping, moving, managing swings, etc. In that game he is beatable. At times Shane looks downright irritated he has to move and kick and trade blows. He gets impatient and just wants to make it a top gear contest.

Sky has enough game on the bar table to trade blows with SVB but without the break he can't match SVB's speed. And if SVB can make 2-4 balls, control the one, and take any luck out of the break to continue to give himself clear looks at the 1 on open racks- well, I have to agree that it's hard to find a path to victory.

 

[Fatboy]

SVB’s break is next level.

I know it’s been said 1000 times

Now 1001

Fatboy Approved

 

[Dimeball]

Demetrius,
Generally you and I line up quite well on most topics. On this one...not so much. Everything you said is true except for one key element. Like Earl in his day SVB's HIGH-HIGH gear is the tallest in the land. When his engine warms up and he goes into Shane-train mode...no lead is safe. You get package after package and he goes full Beast-mode on everyone. Dennis is probably the only guy who could have come back on SVB like he did. Lets call that Buster Douglas vs Mike Tyson. All year DO has been in the box. Game hard and hungry. SVB did just a little too much fishing and why the hell not. The world was upside down and who knows when we were coming out of this. Thus fishing sounds like the prudent thing to do.

So he books a couple of losers and his closest American rival calls him out. Well Junior hold my beer because you just awoken the dragon. SVB went to the World Pool event and was probably 90%. Was cruising along and then somebody said lets change racks and tables. Well you have to adapt but he had a bad set.

People throw names out there like the Ko's, JL and Filler. All super players. I suspect playing 10ball they don't like it.... and if they do it's because it's a free-roll. The only guy SVB needs to keep his eyes on is Fedor (and maybe Wu Jia-qing and Raga). Look what SVB has done to Jayson Shaw in this format (Higher Fargo than DO). They came up with a format to neutralize his break. Now SVB has gone to the washroom and heard the speech. Next guy in the box won't like it.


View attachment 601999

Preach it brother!

 

[alstl]

In a match like this the main deciding factors are the break, run out consistency, moving, and mental fortitude.

I bet Sky. Before the match I felt it was even in the run out game, even in the moving game, and that Sky had a mental fortitude edge. I base that on what I've seen from the two of them over the last two years. The key to it all was that he'd have to neutralize any breaking edge that SVB had. In other words, I felt if Sky could break as consistently as he did last set against Dennis that he'd manage through the swings of the set better than SVB.

We saw this with Dennis and SVB. When Dennis played SVB 10 ball he lost because he can't win when SVB has a big breaking edge. But when they play 9 on the spot 9 ball then Dennis got there twice. Yes, it was close. But without going through the replay of the set my main point is that when Dennis neutralizes SVB's break then he can match his firepower and win on moving/mental toughness. At least at this time in their career.

I thought Sky could do the same. It looked good starting out when Sky opened with a 7 pack. But little by little his break got worse, and SVB's got better. And when SVB started breaking really good it seemed to fluster Sky. Instead of getting better, he got worse and worse. And somewhere mid-match Sky saw the writing on the wall. He just couldn't get his break going enough to keep up with SVB and had no chance to win the set because of this.

From there it was a travesty. He knew he had no way to the finish line and it showed in all parts of his game. He fell apart mentally and physically. His break got worse, he started missing balls, and his run out game was inconsistent.

I say all of this because for those who think the score of 150 to 114 means Shane is 30% better than Sky across the board they aren't seeing it correctly. Sky absolutely has what it takes to win in this format when his break is working. Unlike Dennis who never broke good 10 ball, Sky is capable of breaking good enough to win. I'm not sure why it broke down so I can't tell you what the future holds. Maybe he figures it out and puts it together in a way to stand up to SVB's barrage and beats him in the future. Maybe the gap between their breaks is insurmountable and SVB will always have a decisive advantage in terms of generating opportunities.

SVB proved he was the better player this weekend. One thing I know is that there is more to this than looking at Fargo Rate or resume and declaring that Sky will never win.

How much did you lose?

 

[fastone371]

Thanks Nick.

Yes, SVB's high gear hasn't been outrun. I just feel high gear isn't always decisive.

I compare it to a racing game. Some cars have better top speed, some have better acceleration, some handle corners better, etc. SVB has a higher top speed than anyone I've ever seen. In a long, straight course he is nearly impossible to beat.

When the course starts having a lot of curves and obstacles I'm not sure he likes it as much. Like playing Dennis 9 ball where the break added enough unpredictability he couldn't just stretch his legs and rain packages, he had to keep jockeying for shots. In this format high speed didn't win, it was about starting and stopping, moving, managing swings, etc. In that game he is beatable. At times Shane looks downright irritated he has to move and kick and trade blows. He gets impatient and just wants to make it a top gear contest.

Sky has enough game on the bar table to trade blows with SVB but without the break he can't match SVB's speed. And if SVB can make 2-4 balls, control the one, and take any luck out of the break to continue to give himself clear looks at the 1 on open racks- well, I have to agree that it's hard to find a path to victory.

I watched both SVB vs DO matches and I thought I was a pretty neutral observer, it sure looked to me like DO got way more of his fair share of rolls compared to SVB. I realize in the grand scheme of things fortunate rolls should even out but they sure seemed one sided in both of the SVB vs DO matches.

 

[JoeyInCali]

I watched both SVB vs DO matches and I thought I was a pretty neutral observer, it sure looked to me like DO got way more of his fair share of rolls compared to SVB. I realize in the grand scheme of things fortunate rolls should even out but they sure seemed one sided in both of the SVB vs DO matches.

After DO caught up on the third night, it seemed the pool gods would not let Shane win anymore.
He could no longer string 3 racks. The 2 ball started escaping him.
But, Shane did play way too conservative and started playing ticky tack.
Dennis banked the balls if there was room.

 

[Tin Man]

It seems most people have simplified this to "Shane is a beast and has such a big gear he can't be beaten in a long 10 ball set". This isn't far off. My point is that he doesn't win because he's Shane. He has to achieve that gear. We all know his break is the lynch-pin to his success.

My question for those who say he can never be beat is this: Are you suggesting that no one else can match his break, ever? Or that no one else will match his run out ability, ever? Tell me specifically where his game is unique and can't be reproduced by another player.

Sky opened with a 7 pack. He was breaking in both balls behind the 1, playing the 1 in front of the corner, avoiding any and all kisses, etc. Sky wasn't betting that SVB would dog it. He was betting he could break and run 150 racks in a 50 innings and just outrun Shane.

Sky wasn't there yet. If he can't match SVB's break he can't match his high gear, and I agree that he can't win if he doesn't. I just happen to believe that he is a hair off of one skill, not a universe apart.

 

[penguin]

My question for those who say he can never be beat is this: Are you suggesting that no one else can match his break, ever? Or that no one else will match his run out ability, ever? Tell me specifically where his game is unique and can't be reproduced by another player.

Shane is the best at manipulating the rack in a rack-your-own format.

Take that away and you can see why he falls short in international events.

 

[BeiberLvr]

Shane is the best at manipulating the rack in a rack-your-own format.

Take that away and you can see why he falls short in international events.

Harsh, but true.

All one has to do is look at his past results and see that, other than Turning Stone, he hasn't had a ton of success in events that were NOT rack your own.

 

[Tin Man]

Shane is going to be live on the podcast tomorrow to discuss!

 

[penguin]

Shane is going to be live on the podcast tomorrow to discuss!

How about ask him what he has against others checking his rack in a rack-your-own format?

 

[Nick B]

Shane is the best at manipulating the rack in a rack-your-own format.

Take that away and you can see why he falls short in international events.

Yeah. Your right. He can't play a lick.

Give him the same rack every time and he will figure out what's needed and deliver. The last Matchroom event he wasn't racking...just a plain old template. Then they changed to that "ref" who was a miserable racker and it went to hell. You think the other pros don't know how to rack the balls or is SVB using some sort of Vaseline like an old-time pitcher?

 

[Get_A_Grip]

The Fargo Rating of players with as many games as both of these players have doesn't lie. The extremely funny thing was that both commentators were saying midway into Day 2, that Sky was definitely the favorite in this match. Of course, once SVB went on his 26 game run they eventually changed their tune and acted like they never made such a comment. Embarrassing.

The more games that they play, SVB is the favorite PERIOD. Any table and probably any game but banks. This is the reality until SVB's Fargo Rating drops below Sky's. Accept it, or lose all of your money.

 

[Tin Man]

The Fargo Rating of players with as many games as both of these players have doesn't lie. The extremely funny thing was that both commentators were saying midway into Day 2, that Sky was definitely the favorite in this match. Of course, once SVB went on his 26 game run they eventually changed their tune and acted like they never made such a comment. Embarrassing.

The more games that they play, SVB is the favorite PERIOD. Any table and probably any game but banks. This is the reality until SVB's Fargo Rating drops below Sky's. Accept it, or lose all of your money.

If it's that easy how did Sky beat Dennis?

 

[Get_A_Grip]

If it's that easy how did Sky beat Dennis?

There is always a possibility of an upset. I didn't watch that specific match, so I can't comment on what I think happened. In this recent match, it was 100% true that Sky was dominating the match early on. But it was as if the commentators didn't realize how good SVB can and normally does play. SVB needed to buckle down and get into the zone. Once he did, he played as expected.

This is why Dennis is going to play Sky again. And if Dennis wins, I do expect him to challenge SVB on the bar table. Dennis and SVB are VERY close IMO. Their ratings are close. Dennis in my opinion is a little better than SVB after the break. So I would love to see SVB and Dennis play a race to 150 in 10 ball on a bar table.

 

[AtLarge]

... Sky opened with a 7 pack. He was breaking in both balls behind the 1 ...

He made both balls behind the 1-ball just once in those 7 games. He made just one of them 4 other times and neither of them twice.

 

[gxman]

Enough of the small table please.

9ft long race.
Shane vs Gorst 9 or 10b.
Shane vs Filler 9 or 10b.
Shane vs little ko 9b race to 50.
Shane vs JL Chang 10b.

Dennis vs Kaci 9b, same format as Shane vs DO.
Dennis vs Gorst 9b

Need to established who is king of the big table in 9b and 10b.

 

[sjm]

I'll admit that I'm far form a guru when it comes to bar table pool, in part because I don't much enjoy watching it, but Shane is not, in my opinion, out of Sky's league on the kiddie tables. Sky has won over Shane in some very big spots on the barbox in the past, including some major tournament finals.

As a couple of posters have noted, Shane possesses a gear that nearly no-one can match. Although I'd favor JL Chang (who owns Shane at 10-ball) and Josh Filler (who owns Shane at 9-ball) over Shane on the big tables in both nine and ten ball, neither can beat Shane on the kiddie tables. Barbox pool is a different game, and Fargo isn't as likely to tell you who will beat who as it is on the nine footer.

Some will recall that Corey Deuel, another guy who is battle tested and highly skilled on the barbox, beat Filler easily at Derby City when they hooked up in barbox 8-ball in a race to 30 (I think the final score was 30-20). From what I saw, Filler is not likely to try him again despite a 46 point Fargo rate advantage.

In conclusion, well played Shane, but the score is not representative of their relative skills on a bar table. This was a fair fight, and Shane was a deserving winner.