1 in 6.5+-million attempts, does that sound a little high? Maybe I'm just jaded.
Certainly that's what it'd take ME to pull it off... or maybe more.
But Earl? Wonder how they came up with that?
I see the stats like this:
Ideal easy conditions (big pockets, magic rack, pattern rack, soft break from anywhere, 8 footer, etc.):
Make a ball 100% from the break, run out 80% from after the break.
.8 ^ 10 = 10.7% ...this would be SVB on a bucket gandy 8 footer.
More realistic tournament conditions (diamond procut, make a ball 90% breaking from the box
or using a triangle, run out 65% from the break IF the 1 ball cooperates):
(.9 ^ 10) * (.65 ^ 10) = 0.47%, which sounds pretty low but is still only like 200, 250 attempts.
Back-in-the-day conditions (inconsistent rack, 60% ball on the break, 60% runouts...
based on some old accustats magazines):
.0037% ... a tiny percentage sure, but still "only" 1 in ~27,000 tries.
To get 1 in 6.5 million... maybe the PHD just had a soft spot for pro pool players?
Or maybe there's something I'm missing... 10 packs are rare enough we still
only have the one on tape.