Playing the ghost?
- Thread starter Moon Cricket
- Start date
Fixer said:Answer to av8:
Well Im not saying that 300 racks is the truth, but the pros have really gotten too god for 9-ball I think. When was the 35 number from?
The last couple of years (like 2003-8) the racks have improved, the players have very controlled breaks etc. Check out a couple of top wpc-matches and you will see.
But if it still is 35% in 9-ball I think it would be 6% in 10-ball.
My numbers only told me what I knew, 10-ball is really another ballgame.
Ps. I have numbers on safties, missed balls etc. too. ds.
I asked what your database is. What 300 racks are you talking about?
But I was wrong...in Capelle's book Playing Your Best 9 Ball (2001 edition) he viewed 500 racks and recorded a 28% BnR.
Then, he goes on to say...The players with the two best tournament records in the 1990s were Earl Strickland and Johnny Archer. Each of their Bnr percentages far exceeded the average pro. Earl broke an "astounding" 32.7%...Johnny, 31.7%.
As far as the wpc is concerned that was wimp breaking from tapped racks and was an embarrassment to the sport of pool.
If that is where your 57% came from, it has no relationship to reality. That kind of soft breaking is now illegal under the World Standard Rules and for GOOD reason.
Regards,
Jim
Drew said:
Drew, if that is your car in your avatar I would be willing to stake a player against the no BIH ghost for the 300ZX.
To anyone else who like's the ghost's end of it, I'll make this offer;
according to this thought, the player must be at least 51:49 underdog to break and run. In a race to 7 this means the odds to break and run a set out are 146:1. In a 32 player tournament, the player must win 6 matches to place in the money. That means if the player places in the money their odds to break and run 7 would be 21:1 at best (146/6 chances). I will bet $100 at any major tournament that a player of my choice will break and run a set out for just 20:1 odds. That means you have at least 4% advantage to take this bet.
AND that's nmineball where controlled breaks are atleast possible.
A pro caliber friend of mine used to do percentages of the pros as well and he stated that giving the breaks as a spot is the best thing you can do because among the top pros, they only won 45% of the racks they broke.
Also nineball shouldn't even be in this discussion because we can all admit that with BIH after the break, A players and above have the advantage over the ghost, this is about ten ball and above. It becomes a whole different ball of wax then and those who think that even the top pros will beat it the majority of the time I think are in world of their own. Again, I am not saying that top pros can't beat the ten ball and above ghost, or even that they can't come close to beating it 50% of the time, but they will have an extremely hard time beating it more than 50% of the time and it seems to me that some people on this board have an overblown perspective on how good the top pros really are.
Jaden.
p.s. It is also this overblown perspective in the general audience that contributes to professional pool's current state of affairs.
av84fun said:
A pro caliber friend of mine used to do percentages of the pros as well and he stated that giving the breaks as a spot is the best thing you can do because among the top pros, they only won 45% of the racks they broke.
Also nineball shouldn't even be in this discussion because we can all admit that with BIH after the break, A players and above have the advantage over the ghost, this is about ten ball and above. It becomes a whole different ball of wax then and those who think that even the top pros will beat it the majority of the time I think are in world of their own. Again, I am not saying that top pros can't beat the ten ball and above ghost, or even that they can't come close to beating it 50% of the time, but they will have an extremely hard time beating it more than 50% of the time and it seems to me that some people on this board have an overblown perspective on how good the top pros really are.
Jaden.
p.s. It is also this overblown perspective in the general audience that contributes to professional pool's current state of affairs.
I was talking about 6ball.Drew said:
Just kidding...please let me know when we changed to ahead sets.
I do not have a pro-player to offer, but I can tell you you don't get a very good one for $500. Would think you'd need to double and x10 to get a Bowman/ Vilmont/ Baracks/ SVB/ Orcullo/ Lining to show us the light.
These games are played under conditions where (shooting) scenarios arise in which it would be beneficial for a shooter to play a % miss instead of go for the out. Also, the participants are not maintaing 100% of table time, making this argument like comparing apples to applesauce.Jaden said:
Jaden said:
Yes, anything that goeas against your point shall be declared irrelevant.
.Jaden said:
See the vid here- keep in mind the Dennis Hatch has not comepted at his best for years:
http://propoolvideo.com/florida-pro-tour/fl-pro-tour---d.-mills-v.-d.-hatch.html
Jaden said:
Black-Balled said:These games are played under conditions where (shooting) scenarios arise in which it would be beneficial for a shooter to play a % miss instead of go for the out. Also, the participants are not maintaing 100% of table time, making this argument like comparing apples to applesauce.
Yes, anything that goeas against your point shall be declared irrelevant.
.
See the vid here- keep in mind the Dennis Hatch has not comepted at his best for years:
http://propoolvideo.com/florida-pro-tour/fl-pro-tour---d.-mills-v.-d.-hatch.html
I'm not a wealthy man. If I had tens of thousands to put into action, I probably would. $1200 already exceeds my previous high bet of $800. But I have faith in my horse. He never misses and all he's giving up is the breaks.
Drew said:
That's a sucker bet. If you let a top pro get used to how a table breaks, and THEN take this bet, he will break your heart.
Competing in tournaments where if you miss, your opponent can run 3-4 racks, play a dead nut safe, and then run 2 more racks is LOADS different than playing the ghost without bih.
I'll stake either Johnny or Shane at this game, the only stipulation is, they have to be allowed to practice their break on the table an hour or two beforehand.
I think there are a lot of people on here that do not understand how different tournament competition against other superpros is from playing the ghost.
FWIW, they do not understand playing another superpro is TOUGHER than playing the ghost. When you lose a game against the ghost, you lose A game, and you still get the next break.
You lose a game against a top pro, and he may very well run the rest of the set on you. The two levels of pressure do not even compare.
Russ
Southpaw said:
Sure, if you are talking about a Diamond Pro with 4.25" pockets, mebbe.
And since you think odds need to be given, I'll take 2-1 staking Johnny or Shane against the no-bih ghost, on a regular, run-of-the-mill table. No snooker cut pockets allowed.
Russ
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Boy I want to see donny gamble. That would be great. But what I am going to do with you donny is give you 3-1 and let you break the 9 ball rack. But after you make the corner ball the 10 ball and the 11 ball go on both spots. If you don't like that then I will take the 7 and last two playing rack your own. Champ.
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Mainplayer said:
WHat's with the needing all of a sudden?!
I never heard of this ghost guy before so I tried to play him today. Man, that guy is tough. It really did teach me a lot about my game and flaws. What I find most difficult playing the ghost compared to an opponent is that you can't play safe. If I you get out of shape or have a difficult shot in a regular match, you can elect to play safe, or give them a tough shot. With the ghost, you have to simply make the shot happen. If you play a safe against the ghost, you loose.
This was the very first time playing the ghost and I simply got smoked.
This was the very first time playing the ghost and I simply got smoked.Jaden said:
I have also read that the stats show breaking to be a slight disadvantage...probably Koehler, Byrne or maybe Jewett but FOR SURE that was the deal.
Of course, that's over a LONG series of racks. We all know that top guys catch gears and put the packs on but OVER TIME, the break IS NOT the big advantage most people think it is.
Today, I watched the 1995 TOC semi-final between Oliver Ortman and Takeshi Okumura.
AT that time Okumura was the reigning World Champion and Ortman was German National Champ playing in the semis against the best in the world.
Here's how it went.
12 Racks were broadcast.
Total BnR's = ONE
Then I created a fictitious Ghost where if the breaker or incoming player had an EASY shot to start the inning and there were 7 balls or more on the table...that was a Ghost rack.
Result???
6 Racks and 3 wins for the players.
Al the talk about guys "robbing the Ghost" sounds to me like typical gambler talk. I have never in my life heard anyone tell me they are a net loser in Vegas....NOT ONE!!! (-:
Sure guys will have days when they scatter the rack nicely every time and the Ghost is a punk but everyone who watchs pro pool knows that 9 Ball Championships are LOST and not WONl and it basically comes down to who lets the dog out.
"A" players routinely beating the Ghost over a long series of attempts on a 9 ft. 4.5 table is a MYTH.
The racks don't always break into road maps. Natural routes are blocked...balls cluster with no reasonable break out shots...only plays to a safety.
My only qualifiers are...frozen racks...ZERO gaps...properly aligned racks (check THAT out on your next league night...MAYBE half the racks will be aligned perpendicular to the foot rail!!.
9 Ball spots on the break
AND NO BABY BREAKING.
Finally, how do all these A players and pros KNOW they can rob the Ghost? The thought of a top speed player screwing around play 50 racks with Ghost instead of REAL PRACTICE on the OTHER half of the game of 9 Ball makes me laugh out loud.
Just IMHO.
Jim
Black-Balled said:These games are played under conditions where (shooting) scenarios arise in which it would be beneficial for a shooter to play a % miss instead of go for the out. Also, the participants are not maintaing 100% of table time, making this argument like comparing apples to applesauce.
Yes, anything that goeas against your point shall be declared irrelevant.
.
See the vid here- keep in mind the Dennis Hatch has not comepted at his best for years:
http://propoolvideo.com/florida-pro-tour/fl-pro-tour---d.-mills-v.-d.-hatch.html
thanks for the video. Here's the way I saw it.
First, I don't believe that was a 4.5 table and I saw 2 deal breaking shots that I think would have jawed out on tight pockets...but forget about that.
What I did was to simulate Ghost Ball by only including racks where the incoming player had an easy first shot and if there were more than 7 balls on the table to start the inning.
Looked at that way, there were 11 Ghost Ball racks. Rack 13 was a Double Ghost Ball rack because both players had an easy shot to start with more than 7 balls on the table...and the BOTH lost BTW.
But out of the 11 Ghost Ball racks, the players won 6...so they BARELY beat and certainly did not torture the ghost.
And that was on wide pockets (as far as I could tell) and one win where Mills had a combo...BIH with the 10 ball almost in the jaws.
One final observation. I haven't paid too much attention to this point in the past but will in the future. The way 10 balls are racked, both these players with excellent but not world beating break speed were routinely moving 7 and 8 balls up table past the center line.
We all know that doesn't happen in 9 Ball. So once the run starts a significant percentage of the pattern lies on the upper half of the table...almost like the slow break patterns...but at the opposite end.
In one rack, one ball was pocketed on the break and 8 balls were laying in the upper half of the table...and the shooter (can't remember which one) made 6 or 7 balls IN THE SAME CORNER POCKET!!
In any event, I really enjoyed watching the video but IMHO it certainly didn't prove that the 10 Ball Ghost is a punk.
Regards,
Jim
Russ Chewning said:
Russ, we've agreed to disagree on this before but your statement only works if the silly and unprecedented (in any other major sport) winner breaks format is in place.
Plenty of major pro tournaments are alternate break and your comment just demonstrates how ridiculous winner breaks is....you said that a TOP PRO can sit in his chair with NO chance to even make an appearance in the event...and lose.
That is an exhibition...not a contest....and is ONE of the MANY reasons why pool has not gained a wide spectator audience.
Hundreds of thousands of people tuned in to the WP...whatever...tournament when Feijen sat in his chair while Gomez did his baby break and then played baby pool on the bottom half of the table to run out the set.
That was one of the most embarrassing spectacles in modern pool history and I am sure TONS of new people tuning in to see what world class pool looks like thought it was about as exciting as a 6th grade egg rolling contest....and many probably turned the channel to the bass fishing event.
Of course, that is just my opinion. But what large numbers of people WANT to see is when a team scores a touchdown or field goal, they kick off to the other team so that THEY can have a chance to score.
Regards,
Jim
