Predator Wisconsin 10 Ball

Here is a link to the Seaman Hohmann match. The handshake was taken after match ended in Seaman's favor.

Tony Robles commented that Jeremy Seaman was breaking like a monster. In one of the racks, he made 5 balls including the 10-ball. Let's not take anything away from Mr. Seaman.


He played about equal to Thorsten without the golden breaks. Certainly gets credit for his play in the match.
 
Looks like with the last stream they were done showing winner's side for the day.

6:00 Kaci vs Hohmann
8:00 guessing Morra vs Gorst?
10:00 tbd
 
The Seaman breaks are interesting. Most people break from near the center diamond going for this thing.
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In that picture the path of the 3 ball isn’t shown because it doesn’t track toward a pocket. It tracks one rail toward the first diamond on the short rail.

But Jeremy was breaking closer to the corner pocket. He was still making the second row in the side pockets. But as he breaks from closer to the pocket, that 3 ball path starts tracking one rail toward the middle diamond on the short rail. That path makes it bump into the 10 from underneath. From there the 10 could go anywhere from either side pocket, either corner pocket, or just anywhere up table perhaps waiting for an early combo which he also did twice.
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The Seaman breaks are interesting. Most people break from near the center diamond going for this thing.
View attachment 628871

In that picture the path of the 3 ball isn’t shown because it doesn’t track toward a pocket. It tracks one rail toward the first diamond on the short rail.

But Jeremy was breaking closer to the corner pocket. He was still making the second row in the side pockets. But as he breaks from closer to the pocket, that 3 ball path starts tracking one rail toward the middle diamond on the short rail. That path makes it bump into the 10 from underneath. From there the 10 could go anywhere from either side pocket, with corner pocket, or just anywhere up table perhaps waiting for an early combo which he also did twice.
View attachment 628873
Many have been breaking from the sides in this tournament as supposedly due to not using a template.

With how lazy Leyman racks the balls it is surprising they are spreading as well as they do.
 
Many have been breaking from the sides in this tournament as supposedly due to not using a template.

With how lazy Leyman racks the balls it is surprising they are spreading as well as they do.
I noticed Thorsten was breaking more traditionally at the start of the match. But by the end he was sliding over more toward the corner. But I also noticed he never got as far over as Jeremy was.
 
Well, I'd never try to contradict Mike, but these events are pretty new. Do we have even close to enough data to judge accurately what the odds of a player winning a shootout are when they compete against someone whose Fargo is 100 points higher?

Fargo is perfect for determining how often each player will sweep two sets and how often they would split sets to force a shootout, but my sense of things is that we've not seen enough shootouts to be able to have a really good handle on how Fargo differences translate to shootout win probabilities.

That said, the early returns are in and Mike has studied the results to date. These results do mean something, but I think the jury is still out here.
Well you were talking about the match formats of this series, as was I. The match format is the two races to four and if needed the set of modified spot shots followed by even further modified spot shots in sudden death if needed. It is not modified spot shot shootouts done in isolation. Because of that, for the purposes of what we were discussing, the odds for who wins only the modified spot shot segment of the match is immaterial. What it important is the odds for who wins the format they are playing, which is the "two races to four followed by the modified spot shots if needed", and so that is of course what I gave the odds for.

While more data is always better, there is indeed enough data to draw reasonable conclusions about the odds for winning matches of this format, and it turns out that it is about the same odds of winning 10 ball in races to 8, or put another way, it does as good a job of finding the better player in 10 ball as races to 8 does, so races to 7 would do a little worse job at finding the better player, and races to 9 would do a slightly better job at finding the better player.

On a bit of a tangent...I think most of us agree that races to 8 in 10 ball typically do a pretty good job of finding a deserving winner, and this does the same job in that respect but in a way that allows for matches to seemingly stay tighter which causes more pressure for players and more excitement for viewers, both obviously being very good things. Then of course it also regularly allows for modified spot shot shootouts that introduce new pressures and excitement of their own. Time will tell if the spot shot shootouts are a good way to introduce more pressure and excitement, but I don't think it can be argued that we don't need more pressure and excitement (among other things) in pool if we ever hope to attract more viewers because we clearly do. There is almost no question we need it from somewhere (even if I don't personally need or even prefer it in order to be a viewing fan myself), and so we have to try new things to find what best works.

Here is a recent video Mike did on the odds for this format that as always is pretty informative and interesting:
 
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While more data is always better, there is indeed enough data to draw reasonable conclusions about the odds for winning matches of this format.
It's here where we disagree. While Mike had done a great job at analyzing results to date, there really haven't been enough matches in this format for hard conclusions when comparing players of very different skill levels.

I suspect the race to eight comparison will continue to hold up nicely for players of similar skill because the odds of a player winning a shootout will be about the same as them winning any given rack played, so the binomial probability model that underlies Fargo would be largely unaffected.

Mike, who in his work is consistently superhuman, has opined that we may never know the true shootout success odds for players of highly different Fargos, so he, quite sensibly analyzes at the match level only, and that, of course, is the best that's presently available.
 
Name recognition, exposure and in person viewing at these events can only greatly boost
pool as a sport in America. IMO League players know nothing about the top
players in the world ...... or at best very little. That said ... I'm happy to see the pros
mingling with the thousands of pool league lovers, displaying their great talents at these
state tournaments ...... the "marketing" our sport needs.
 
Top heavy prizemoney warrants top heavy draw :LOL: Yes top half of last 16 elimination stage is heavy with favorites.
Looking like Gorst or Kaci v Yapp final.
Old dogs Appleton and Mika still in it. Appleton is headed to semifinal spot ($7.5K payout -not bad)

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Not at all. They are playing call shot.
I should have more precise. Sorry. They're not using the 'pass back' form of tenball. Ten can be combo'd/carom'd too. Much better than WPA rules. I thought you hated this format. surprised you're following it so closely. ;)
 
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