Rating 8-Ball Players: FARGO RATINGS

mikepage said:
Check out this description of a new approach to rating 8-ball players at pool

http://www.youtube.com/FargoBilliards
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I think this is a major improvement over the NPL system (which was developed before spreadsheets were widespread).

It's interesting that you give roughly a half-game advantage to the stronger player in each handicapped match. Do you have statistics on the win/loss percentages for stronger/weaker?

Do the other statistics match the underlying assumptions (such as the predicted distribution of winning margin)?

Have you seen anyone use the "lose badly, win barely" approach to "handicap management?"
 
Bob Jewett said:
I think this is a major improvement over the NPL system (which was developed before spreadsheets were widespread).

It's interesting that you give roughly a half-game advantage to the stronger player in each handicapped match. Do you have statistics on the win/loss percentages for stronger/weaker?
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No, we don't. But we will start keeping them. A light day at the Sunday tournament today with only 17 players. Players ranged from 397 to 630.

Of the 31 matches, 15 were won by the higher-rated player and 16 by the lower-rated player.


Have you seen anyone use the "lose badly, win barely" approach to "handicap management?"
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Don't think so.
 
Mike, what a first class - world class thing you have going on down there. To bad we couldn't get the rest of north dakota on the same playing field, or could we....?
 
Kudos to you sir! That looks like a terrific system and I'd really like to see it socialized across the country. It doesn't matter, of course, but I'd love to know who did the math.

BTW, I looked at your commercial while I was on YouTube and have never had the urge to visit Fargo....until now! Please let me know when franchises become available!

Brian in VA
 
Brian in VA said:
Kudos to you sir! That looks like a terrific system and I'd really like to see it socialized across the country. It doesn't matter, of course, but I'd love to know who did the math.

BTW, I looked at your commercial while I was on YouTube and have never had the urge to visit Fargo....until now! Please let me know when franchises become available!

Brian in VA
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Thanks for the kind words Brian.

I'd be the math geek...
 
This might be a silly question, but how is this specifically for 8-ball? Or in other words, is this suitable for say 9-ball and other disciplines?

(Haven't read the PDF yet, so I don't know if this is answered in there.)
 
JarnoV said:
This might be a silly question, but how is this specifically for 8-ball? Or in other words, is this suitable for say 9-ball and other disciplines?

(Haven't read the PDF yet, so I don't know if this is answered in there.)
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This approach is most definitely suitable for 9-ball and other disciplines. In fact, we're working right now on a spreadsheet that can be used to handicap straight pool leagues.

So while it can work for 9-ball too, our approach is to not MIX 8-ball and 9-ball. For example, if two players who are in the system (8-ball) play each other in our weekly 9-ball tournament, we do not use the results to update their 8-ball ratings.
 
Hello Mike, I really like your approach.

Will you share with us a spreadsheet with the formulas?


Comment: While I like your system, I think there is an important factor for "8-ball" that should be accounted for in handicap systems. I think to properly account for results of a match, the system should count balls left on the table by the loser of a game. (I think someone told me that TAP league does this).

For example, If I have the break and run my balls down but miss the 8-ball, I've had to navigate that run through my opponent's balls. Then since I missed my opponent gets up and has a clear table to run his balls. Let's say he does and wins the game. It's likely that in this hypothetical situation that "I" played the better game, but my opponent won due to the easier runout.

Your system doesn't have any idea if I ran down to the eight or missed every ball I shot at... it simply moves his rating up and mine down.

Now, let's say this same thing happens to me the first 20 games/matches I play in your system. I may be a pretty good 8-ball player, but your system would have me ranked pretty low since I didn't win any games, dispite having many good runs down to the 8-ball.



Second comment: How is you system "Naturally resistant to sandbagging; sandbagging easy to detect and prevent"?
 
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JustinHayes...While the situation you describe could happen once or twice (in MANY games played), the mathmatical probability of it happening 20 times in a row are 200 TRILLION to one! Either that, or you're the biggest "dog" in the universe. LOL I think there's nothing wrong with Mike's formula the way it is. jmo Oh...and a "thanks" for putting all the work into this system FOR FREE would certainly be appropriate!

Scott Lee
www.poolknowledge.com

JustinHayes said:
Hello Mike, I really like your approach.

Will you share with us a spreadsheet with the formulas?


Comment: While I like your system, I think there is an important factor for "8-ball" that should be accounted for in handicap systems. I think to properly account for results of a match, the system should count balls left on the table by the loser of a game. (I think someone told me that TAP league does this).

For example, If I have the break and run my balls down but miss the 8-ball, I've had to navigate that run through my opponent's balls. Then since I missed my opponent gets up and has a clear table to run his balls. Let's say he does and wins the game. It's likely that in this hypothetical situation that "I" played the better game, but my opponent won due to the easier runout.

Your system doesn't have any idea if I ran down to the eight or missed every ball I shot at... it simply moves his rating up and mine down.

Now, let's say this same thing happens to me the first 20 games/matches I play in your system. I may be a pretty good 8-ball player, but your system would have me ranked pretty low since I didn't win any games, dispite having many good runs down to the 8-ball.



Second comment: How is you system "Naturally resistant to sandbagging; sandbagging easy to detect and prevent"?
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Scott Lee said:
Oh...and a "thanks" for putting all the work into this system FOR FREE would certainly be appropriate!
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You're absolutely right Scott, thanks for putting me straight.

Mike, Thank you for putting all of this work into a system for free! I hope this system spreads and is used all over!



Scott, my hypothetical situation was just that.... and meant to point out that using wins/losses only can sometimes under-rank a good player
 
JustinHayes...Yep, and my "tongue-in-cheek" comment was also meant the same way! :D Maybe Mike will address your question later!

Scott Lee
www.poolknowledge.com

Scott, my hypothetical situation was just that.... and meant to point out that using wins/losses only can sometimes under-rank a good player[/QUOTE]
 
Neil said:
when a C player can play an A player, and the handicap is so fair that it is an even game, where is the incentive for the C player to come into your room and practice to get better? There is none!
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Neil, at around 8:40 in the video, he states there is a small advantage to the higher rated player.
 
Mike,
Didn't know you were AZ'er. All your videos helped my game in last three months.
Big thank you.
Kyo
 
Neil said:
MikePage, first off, very good work on devising this system of handicapping. It looks like it really makes the game even for all players. But, therein lies the rub.... when a C player can play an A player, and the handicap is so fair that it is an even game, where is the incentive for the C player to come into your room and practice to get better? [...]
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Hi Neil

First, the Fargo Ratings approach is not ABOUT handicapping. Instead it is really about RATING players. These are two different things.

If a pool room decides it wants to use them to handicap matches, then that's fine. But it it a separate decision. Also so-called fair handicapping, where the two players have equal chance of winning, is only one approach. There are many other approaches that involve partial handicapping that a room could use. The point is if someone wants to do it, Fargo Ratings makes it easy to implement consistently.

I have two weekly tournaments. One is handicapped 8-ball, as described in the video, and the other is unhandicapped 9-ball. Both are popular, and both have a wide range of players.

I disagree with the whole concept that we can model or understand players' motivations --as to whether they show up or whether they strive to improve--by assuming they will do whatever gets them the most money.

Economists used to try to do that. They've now given up, and they involve folks who study human behavior much more now.

Let's put some things in perspective. Let's say you go to a weekly tournament every week for a year. Six hours each week. If I go get a job flipping burgers for that 6 hours a week, I'm going to make about $50 per week, every week, or about $2500 per year.

How good at cheating the system or robbing the tournament would you have to be to match me?

Our weekly tournaments are fairly low entry fee. Here's what I think we offer to the C player entering each one.

In the unhandicapped one ($10 entry, race to 3/2), people get to play better players and hope that one week the stars will be aligned and they'll bring down a big dog or get into the money. Either way, they'd go home pretty excited and rejuvinated.

That same C player in the handicapped tournament ($20 entry) has a reasonable chance of cashing --in fact will finish in the money about once a month. What we're offering to that C player is the reasonable chance that he or she will be playing for the driver's seat in a tournament--something they've never done before. We're offering a reasonable chance that can experience plowing through the B side of a bracket, or getting up to play the finals after a long vreak on the A side. They can experience the nerves, the feeling that they are in a key match--maybe the finals--and their arm is no longer attached to their body, the easy shots are hard. They can sweat and feel the fear. It's the experience we're offering. It's fantasy island...
 
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