SITUATION: Do or Duck?

sixpack

sixpack

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Last night my opponent left me this as a result of a safe/two way shot. I'm stripes. CB is frozen to rail. 11-Ball is dead straight. 10 is off the rail. Both of her balls (2&4) go into the corner. Fairly tight, unforgiving pockets. I think they're 4 1/2", but deep. Rattles don't fall. 4 1/2 X 9.

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Question: Would you attempt to run out these balls (do) knowing that if you miss the 11 you sell out (opponent is heavy favorite to run out from uptable)? Or would you play safe (Duck) into the 10 and force them to kick?

I managed to win the game, but I'm interested in how everyone here would play it.

Cheers,
RC
 
Duck immediately (if not sooner). I practice those rail shots every day, and can make them a good percentage of the time; but they are NOT automatic for anyone. The safety is a snap to execute (especially if slop does not count for your opponent), and you are a HEAVY favorite to win from there.
 
It depends ... a little

Depending on how I'm shooting, I'd take the 11 ball shot. While it's a tester, it's not extremely difficult. The possibility of getting out here is pretty good.

That being said, the safe is a fairly easy shot to execute. The risk is moving the 10 farther up the table, and your opponent kicking into a safe, thus leaving you behind their balls.
 
Has to go to the shooters confidence with the shot. Me, I'd duck. I have a very low percentage shooting off a rail. Something I need to work on.
 
I don't think the safe is automatic. Because the CB is on the rail, it'll be very hard to stop the CB perfectly behind the 8. If you roll it too hard, then your opponent will see part of the 2, or worse he might even all of the 4, in which case you're totally screwed.

Even if you execute the safety perfectly behind the 8, a very good player can easily soft kick at the 4 ball and leave you hooked behind both the 4 and the 2.

I think this is one of those scenarios where your decision should depend on the skill level of your opponent. If your opponent is a D player like myself, go for the safety. If your opponent is Efren, then go for the runout.
 
Me? I gotta play the safe into the 10. The percentages are much better (for me).

If, and it;'s a big IF, my opponent was way behind in the set and I felt I was shooting great, I might take a flyer:

thin the CB off the right side of the 11 ball to bank it into the opposite corner pocket but concentrate on having the cb come off the head rail, into the 10 ball. That's the best Efren-like shot I could think of.


Eric >would probably scratch
 
sixpack said:
Last night my opponent left me this as a result of a safe/two way shot. ...
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Play the safe. Move the 10 into the way of the bank shot. If your opponent can see just part of the 2, it's pretty safe. If he can see all of the 2, a safe will follow. If he's hooked, the resoonse I like for him is to play softly to the 4 trying to leave you stuck to both the 4 and 2. If the 10 is shootable to or in front of the side pocket, that safe is harder.
 
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Bob Jewett said:
Play the safe. Move the 10 into the way of the bank shot. If your opponent can see just part of the 2, it's pretty safe. If he can see all of the 2, a safe will follow. If he's hooked, the resoonse I like for him is to play softly to the 4 trying to leave you stuck to both the 4 and 2. If the 10 is shootable to or in front of the side pocket, that safe is harder.
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^^^What he said!!!!^^^

I suck big-time on long shots w/cueball frozen to the rail. OTOH, I'm a pretty decent safety player.

Maniac
 
I agree with most, the safe is a higher percentage shot than shooting off the rail. If I am shooting well and I think he can leave me in a worse position, I'll take the run, though.
 
For me it depends on how I'm hitting them that day, and, obviously, on the stakes. One thing I can say for sure is that if I were going to go offensive, I definitely would not shoot at the 11 because a miss means a sure sellout, and even a perfectly struck ball can roll off at that speed. I would shoot at the 13 and try to leave the cb somewhere near the side pocket.

I think defense is the way to go here, though, because so many things can go wrong with the offensive shots, and the stripes are set up better for a defensive battle than the solids are. Like Bob said, I would try to move the 10 in front of the side pocket to block banks and to make the 10 more accessible for myself, and I wouldn't worry too much about leaving a sliver of the 2 ball because I may actually be better off if my opponent can see a sliver of it. My thinking on this is that if I force my opp. to kick at his balls, and if he plays the proper shot (kicking softly into the 4), he could actually end up hooking me completely, whereas if he can see a sliver of the 2 he might be inclined to hit it directly, and that's the shot I want him to shoot. His offensive opportunities from there are limited to extremely low percentage shots (2-4 bank combo, anyone?), and he's even going to have a hard time leaving me somewhere where I don't have a decent shot at one of my balls. If he's smart, though, he'll just kick at the 4 anyway, and the game will drag on some more.
 
jsp said:
I don't think the safe is automatic. Because the CB is on the rail, it'll be very hard to stop the CB perfectly behind the 8. If you roll it too hard, then your opponent will see part of the 2, or worse he might even all of the 4, in which case you're totally screwed.

Even if you execute the safety perfectly behind the 8, a very good player can easily soft kick at the 4 ball and leave you hooked behind both the 4 and the 2.

I think this is one of those scenarios where your decision should depend on the skill level of your opponent. If your opponent is a D player like myself, go for the safety. If your opponent is Efren, then go for the runout.
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Hey JSP, actually the safe is easier than you think. All you really have to do is hit the right half of the 10-ball and the cue-ball will rebound on a direct path toward the 8-ball. If you hit it light, your opponent is definitely kicking. If you hit it right, you can have them kicking two rails.

You're right. The very next play is a kick-safe which is why placement of the 10-ball is critical. You want to leave it in such a place that makes a kick-safe difficult to execute. The fact is though, your opponent has to come up with a great shot in order to reclaim control of the table. His odds of executing the kick-safe are probably just as low as your odds of executing an offensive shot (which is to say, both are likely less than half) and he has to first think of the kick-safe and then feel comfortable enough to go for it.

If you're worried about the kick-safe, play the safe to perfection and look to freeze the cue-ball to the 8-ball. Although you are taking a bit of a risk by over-shooting the safe, the reward is jail.
 
I would try a two-way shot on the 13 in the upper right corner. If you miss the 13, then your opponent has an extremely difficult cut shot on the 2. (As part of the two-way shot, make sure that the CB lands near the lower half of the table near the rails).
 
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Jude Rosenstock said:
If you're worried about the kick-safe, play the safe to perfection and look to freeze the cue-ball to the 8-ball. Although you are taking a bit of a risk by over-shooting the safe, the reward is jail.
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Just my personal preference, I wouldn't try to get the CB too snug on the 8. IMO, I think there is much more bad that can happen if you don't protect the CB. I think the 2 rail kick is no harder to execute than the 1 rail so there isn't much more reward for getting the CB up tight on the 8. The downside is that if you over hit the CB and leave a clean shot at his balls, he has more options (not having to kick, bank the 2, stop the CB next to the 2/using the 4 ball...)


Eric
 
If my opponent is a really good kicker, I would try to get out, if not I would safe. I think I can slow roll the 11 in on a level table a fair percentage of time.

On the other hand, if you safed me and left me the 4 and 2 with a 1 rail kick, all I have to do is slow roll straight into the 4 and you will be in a world of hurt.

Chris
 
Eric. said:
Just my personal preference, I wouldn't try to get the CB too snug on the 8. IMO, I think there is much more bad that can happen if you don't protect the CB. I think the 2 rail kick is no harder to execute than the 1 rail so there isn't much more reward for getting the CB up tight on the 8. The downside is that if you over hit the CB and leave a clean shot at his balls, he has more options (not having to kick, bank the 2, stop the CB next to the 2/using the 4 ball...)


Eric
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I agree, I defintely would not try to snug the cue ball into the 8. You need both perfect speed and perfect line to exectute this, and chances are you leave a 1 railer anyway. This is how safeties are blown.
 
Id play the 11. 9 out of 10 times. That is what I would do on instinct and that is the first thing I thought when I saw the diagram.

Whether it is right or not, beats me, thats just what I would do.
 
Eric. said:
I think the 2 rail kick is no harder to execute than the 1 rail so there isn't much more reward for getting the CB up tight on the 8. Eric
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It takes away the kick-safe. That's the advantage. I'm not saying you SHOULD get snug but if you're that worried about the kick-safe, that's the highest-percentage shot. If you're not worried about the kick-safe, by all means, leave it as is. Personally, I like that shot a lot and feel I can hit it accurately enough and consistently enough to get the result but that's me. I'm playing my strengths.
 
Jude Rosenstock said:
It takes away the kick-safe. That's the advantage. I'm not saying you SHOULD get snug but if you're that worried about the kick-safe, that's the highest-percentage shot. If you're not worried about the kick-safe, by all means, leave it as is. Personally, I like that shot a lot and feel I can hit it accurately enough and consistently enough to get the result but that's me. I'm playing my strengths.
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Just to play devil's advocate, how does getting tight on the 8 take away the kick/safe?

If the CB is touching the 8 ball, it is a simple, non-jacked up kick, where you double the corner and roll into the 4.


Eric
 
TATE said:
If my opponent is a really good kicker, I would try to get out, if not I would safe. I think I can slow roll the 11 in on a level table a fair percentage of time.

On the other hand, if you safed me and left me the 4 and 2 with a 1 rail kick, all I have to do is slow roll straight into the 4 and you will be in a world of hurt.

Chris
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I'd be quite comfortable leaving my opponent to attempt that shot. So many things can go wrong with that, and if they leave me a look at the 10, I can hide them right back behind the 8.

Rolling into the right side of the 10 and stopping there behind the 8 is definitely my best chance to win the game from here.

-Andrew
 
Eric. said:
Just to play devil's advocate, how does getting tight on the 8 take away the kick/safe?

If the CB is touching the 8 ball, it is a simple, non-jacked up kick, where you double the corner and roll into the 4.


Eric
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The single-rail kick is much easier to judge. It's practically a mirror-image type shot. Even unexperienced kickers are going to get a safe here fairly often.

You freeze the cue-ball to the 8-ball and firstly, there is no guarantee you're getting that angle toward the necessary corner pocket. You could freeze slightly to the right-side of the 8-ball and that option no longer exists (just to play devil's advocate). Secondly, the angle of approach for the two-rail kick diminishes the probability you'll leave him safe. You have to hit your target full in the face otherwise, the cue-ball is going to be free and judging such an accurate hit in a two-railer is really really tough.

Most players are going to lower their expectations, get the legal hit and hope to get lucky.
 
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