smart words from Billy Incardona, any opinions?
- Thread starter dedstroke38
- Start date
Billy's statement may be correct but what he said Chris should do was way off. Fact, Chris had a huge pocket to make the ball. He had a buffer ball that he could hit and still pocket the ball or hit too full and the ball would have went to the long rail and back into a non-makeable position. Playing to make the ball was a win-win. Billy suggested kicking softly and rolling the cue ball below the balls by the pocket and playing safe.
Maybe he couldn't see the balls from his vantage point but this was much more risky than playing to pocket the ball. The best possible outcome was pocketing the ball and having shape. The worst would have been scratching which was a possibility if he attempted Billy's ticky safety. At best with Billy's safety Orcullo would tied up the balls and given Chris ball-in-hand with no way to win from that position.
What Chris did:
Billy's suggestion:
Maybe he couldn't see the balls from his vantage point but this was much more risky than playing to pocket the ball. The best possible outcome was pocketing the ball and having shape. The worst would have been scratching which was a possibility if he attempted Billy's ticky safety. At best with Billy's safety Orcullo would tied up the balls and given Chris ball-in-hand with no way to win from that position.
What Chris did:
Billy's suggestion:
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They said they were like 60 feet from the table so probably any flubbed calls were due to not seeing things clearly. That said, I don't agree with your assessment. You're phrasing it in such a way that makes the best/worst outcomes sound better for the guy making the ball. BIH is always the best outcome if you can't run out.
If he makes the ball and gets shape he has some position (not as good as BIH position) on the 3 and almost no chance of getting out.
If he safes correctly and orcullo kicks and misses, he gets BIH, and a chance to do something clever like send the 1 into the cluster while hiding behind the 3, 8, or 4-9. I'll take BIH on the 1 over sinking the 1 and having unknown shape on the 3 any day, with that 5-6-7 cluster.
Orcullo could also realize the kick is too tough and try to tie something up, but then the situation is no worse than before because the rack already wasn't runnable. So now you just look to three-foul him. (I didn't check what rules this tourney uses, does 3-foul apply)?
Also there are a dozen ways to hit play to make the ball, run into the 9, and the 1 doesn't fall in the pocket. It pretty much only goes in if it were already on a line to go in the hole anyway and thins the 9 on the way. At least that's how it looks as diagrammed.
If he makes the ball and gets shape he has some position (not as good as BIH position) on the 3 and almost no chance of getting out.
If he safes correctly and orcullo kicks and misses, he gets BIH, and a chance to do something clever like send the 1 into the cluster while hiding behind the 3, 8, or 4-9. I'll take BIH on the 1 over sinking the 1 and having unknown shape on the 3 any day, with that 5-6-7 cluster.
Orcullo could also realize the kick is too tough and try to tie something up, but then the situation is no worse than before because the rack already wasn't runnable. So now you just look to three-foul him. (I didn't check what rules this tourney uses, does 3-foul apply)?
Also there are a dozen ways to hit play to make the ball, run into the 9, and the 1 doesn't fall in the pocket. It pretty much only goes in if it were already on a line to go in the hole anyway and thins the 9 on the way. At least that's how it looks as diagrammed.
Yeah, i definitely agree that in this situation shooting to kick it in was the right decision. Billy seemed to not be able to see lots of the shots clearly. It definitely wasn't a hanger my any means but if you have the choice between a hard shot and a hard safe i definitely agree with shooting to make it. Mainly i was just agreeing with Billy in theory.
Well chances are he did run the majority of those racks but I would bet that it was mainly situational. Usually when there are huge comebacks there are big packages but thats due to good break and runs and open tables. If he wasn't breaking well or if there were clusters chances are he wouldn't have comeback in that match so sometimes you have to get fortunate with how the layouts are. I would guarantee that if a safety was the "right shot" he would have shot it at any point. The bottom line is you can only win one game at a time, so regardless of if its offensive or defensive you shoot the shot that gives you the best chance to win that particular game.
Well, you know, the one thing that has always confused me is when someone says "Be aggressive, go for the shot, don't play safe" or, on the other side, a person says "Take the safety, don't be aggressive, you could lose the match" etc... I think we've all heard these sentences a billion times over. I don't understand them though. Like so many in this thread are saying "take the shot that gives you the most chances of winning the match". I personally see "aggressive" as just taking the wrong shot. I don't mean that in an insulting way, just an observation.
When I first started playing pool Gary Spaeth, God rest his soul, was a regular at the room I played in. I was watching him practice one day and he was practicing safeties. I asked him, since he could make anything on the table with his eyes closed and his cue behind his back, why he would practice playing safe. His response was "Mully, a good safety is just as good and sometimes better than a good shot" I really took that to heart and put safety practice into my routine after that. At this point in my life, I really don't differentiate between the 2. They are both just shots that have to be made. Why is shooting for the pocket aggressive? In all fairness, if it's an ultra tough shot it's more stupid than aggressive. Again, just play the shot that the table leaves for you whether it's sinking a ball or hiding something.
MULLY
When I first started playing pool Gary Spaeth, God rest his soul, was a regular at the room I played in. I was watching him practice one day and he was practicing safeties. I asked him, since he could make anything on the table with his eyes closed and his cue behind his back, why he would practice playing safe. His response was "Mully, a good safety is just as good and sometimes better than a good shot" I really took that to heart and put safety practice into my routine after that. At this point in my life, I really don't differentiate between the 2. They are both just shots that have to be made. Why is shooting for the pocket aggressive? In all fairness, if it's an ultra tough shot it's more stupid than aggressive. Again, just play the shot that the table leaves for you whether it's sinking a ball or hiding something.
MULLY
Greenies for you. I couldn't have said this any better. My top combinations of commentators are Billy/Grady, Billy/Buddy. I've actually chosen Accu-stats videos just by who the commentators were and I've skipped over matches because of the same thing. Billy is the best they have.
MULLY
I would love to see this match. Would you happen to have any links to a video?
What are you thanking them for???
Johnny,
I'm mad at TAR! I'm losing way too much sleep. On top of everything else they put Efren on last night at midnight local time. I realized I hadn't seen him shoot in a few years and stayed up to watch. I was up till two and now I'm making a late start to go work outside and it's 90 degrees today.
All their fault!
As a side note, Efren played fantastic until he built a big lead and then seemed to lose focus or maybe even show a touch of mercy in his old age. Got to watch Chris Melling last night too, he is the real deal. Ga Yong Kim didn't seem intimidated at all taking down a man either although I don't think she will go too far. Guess it is time to send TAR some money again, they have earned it!!
Hu
Johnny,
I'm mad at TAR! I'm losing way too much sleep. On top of everything else they put Efren on last night at midnight local time. I realized I hadn't seen him shoot in a few years and stayed up to watch. I was up till two and now I'm making a late start to go work outside and it's 90 degrees today.
All their fault!
As a side note, Efren played fantastic until he built a big lead and then seemed to lose focus or maybe even show a touch of mercy in his old age. Got to watch Chris Melling last night too, he is the real deal. Ga Yong Kim didn't seem intimidated at all taking down a man either although I don't think she will go too far. Guess it is time to send TAR some money again, they have earned it!!
Hu
Ditto...
Scott and Billy were 'freekin' hilarious last night! And Efren was a shot or two away from letting that match slip away.
"Ten thousand to one"
td
Scott and Billy were 'freekin' hilarious last night! And Efren was a shot or two away from letting that match slip away.
"Ten thousand to one"
td
That part also cracked me up. The friendly arguing seemed less... how do we say... pissy last night "Sure, I'll bet 1 dollar to 10,000 that he can't come back vs. efren. Mail your dollar bills to PO box...."
Joking aside, imagine taking a bet like that and seeing the guy grind his way back to 5-8... that's why they call it sweating the match. It wasn't even that efren made so many mistakes. He got a sort of unlucky hook on a long 45ish degree rail cut... and some of his kicks didn't get as "lucky" as usual... but I dunno that he missed any balls or blew open tables. Meanwhile Barack played really steady and looked great until his focus faltered and he sucked the CB into the side.
"Sure, I'll bet 1 dollar to 10,000 that he can't come back vs. efren. Mail your dollar bills to PO box...."Joking aside, imagine taking a bet like that and seeing the guy grind his way back to 5-8... that's why they call it sweating the match. It wasn't even that efren made so many mistakes. He got a sort of unlucky hook on a long 45ish degree rail cut... and some of his kicks didn't get as "lucky" as usual... but I dunno that he missed any balls or blew open tables. Meanwhile Barack played really steady and looked great until his focus faltered and he sucked the CB into the side.