Stats -- Gorst vs. Bergman 9-Ball Race to 100, March 2021

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Here are some results from the Fedor Gorst vs. Justin Bergman 9-Ball match played at Racks on the Rocks in Peoria, IL on March 27-29, 2021. Pay-per-view streaming was provided by PoolActionTV. The commentators were Larry Schwartz on Day 1, Jeremy Jones on Days 2 and 3, and Ray Hansen on all 3 days.

This match was a race to 100 game wins played over 3 days. Gorst won the match, outscoring Bergman each of the 3 days. The scores each day (Gorst's score first) were as follows.

[NOTE: The official score of the match was 100 - 69. But I believe that a scoring error was made after Game 144 that resulted in Gorst's score being one game too high and Bergman's score being one game too low for the rest of the match. So the stats shown here are based on a score of 99 - 70.]​

Day 1 -- 35 - 22
Day 2 -- 35 - 26 (2-day total 70 - 48)
Day 3 -- 29 - 22
Total -- 99 - 70

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with pro-cut pockets (4½" corners) and blue Simonis 860 HR cloth);​
- Aramith Tournament balls with a measles cue ball;​
- Magic Ball Rack racking template;​
- winner breaks from the box -- 9" to each side of the long string;​
- rack your own, with the 9-ball on the foot spot and the 2-ball at the back of the rack;​
- the break is illegal (and non-breaker has an option to shoot) unless at least 3 object balls cross the head string or are pocketed;​
- jump cues allowed;​
- no shot clock; and​
- all slop counts.​

■ Gorst broke 98 times -- successful 76 times (resulting in 51 game wins and 25 losses), 4 wet but illegal (2 wins, 2 losses), 6 fouls (2 wins, 4 losses), and 12 dry (4 wins, 8 losses).

■ Bergman broke 71 times -- successful 39 times (resulting in 24 game wins and 15 losses), 6 wet but illegal (1 win, 5 losses), 6 fouls (all losses), and 20 dry (6 wins, 14 losses).

Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul):
Gorst -- 76 of 98 (78%)​
Bergman -- 39 of 71 (55%)​
Total -- 115 of 169 (68%)​

Unsuccessful breaks (illegal, fouled, or dry):
Gorst -- 22 of 98 (22%)​
Bergman -- 32 of 71 (45%)​
Total -- 54 of 169 (32%)​

Breaker won game:
Gorst -- 59 of 98 (60%)​
Bergman -- 31 of 71 (44%)​
Total -- 90 of 169 (53%)​

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
Gorst -- 41 of 98 (42%)​
Bergman -- 14 of 71 (20%)​
Total -- 55 of 169 (33%)​

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul):
Gorst -- 41 of 76 (54%)​
Bergman -- 14 of 39 (36%)​
Total -- 55 of 115 (48%)​

Illegal breaks:
Gorst -- 9 of 98 (9%)​
Bergman -- 17 of 71 (24%)​
Total -- 26 of 169 (15%)​

Fouls and foul rates: [Note: "games at the table" means total games less opponent's B&R games.]
Gorst -- 23 fouls, including 6 on the break, in 155 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 6.7 games at the table)​
Bergman -- 18 fouls, including 6 on the break, in 128 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 7.1 games at the table)​
Total -- 41 fouls in 169 games (1 per 4.1 games)​

Missed shots (est.):
Gorst -- 28 misses in 155 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 5.5 games at the table)​
Bergman -- 29 misses in 128 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 4.4 games at the table)​
Total -- 57 misses in 169 games (1 per 3.0 games)​

Run-outs from first shot after break:
By Gorst after his own successful break -- 41 of 76 (54%)​
By Gorst after Bergman's failed break -- 17 of 32 (53%)​
By Gorst, total -- 58 of 108 (54%)​
By Bergman after his own successful break -- 14 of 39 (36 %)​
By Bergman after Gorst's failed break -- 9 of 22 (41%)​
By Bergman, total -- 23 of 61 (38%)​
Total for Gorst and Bergman -- 81 of 169 (48%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Gorst's break:
By Gorst -- 41 of 76 (54%)​
By Bergman -- 9 of 22 (41%)​
Total -- 50 of 98 (51%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Bergman's break:
By Bergman -- 14 of 39 (36%)​
By Gorst -- 17 of 32 (53%)​
Total -- 31 of 71 (44%)​

Break-and-run packages
Gorst's 41 B&R games consisted of 1 5-pack, 1 4-pack, 11 2-packs, and 10 singles​
Bergman's 14 B&R games consisted of 1 4-pack, 3 2-packs, and 4 singles​

Games with 1 or more safeties (est):
by Gorst only -- 22​
by Bergman only -- 10​
by both -- 18​
Total games with 1 or more safeties -- 30% (50 of 169)​

Average number of balls made on the break:
Gorst -- 1.2 on all breaks, 1.4 on successful breaks​
Bergman -- 0.9 on all breaks, 1.4 on successful breaks​
Total -- 1.1 on all breaks, 1.4 on successful breaks​

Number of innings -- 64% (103 of 169) of the games ended in one inning. 55 games ended on the breaker's first inning (B&R games), 48 games ended on the non-breaker's first inning, 21 games ended on the breaker's second inning, and 15 games ended on the non-breaker's second inning. 18% (30 of 169) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table, with the longest game ending on the non-breaker's 5th visit.

9-balls on the break -- 1 (0.6% of the 169 breaks).

Match length -- Approximately 16 hours, for an average of 5.7 minutes per game. This includes racking and player timeouts.
 
I read where in Fedor’s first 34 wins, 50% were break and run....that’s incredible.
 
42% for the match B&R is nuts!!! SVB should be next and then Dennis.
Would also like to see a long race with Filler or Shaw.
 
I read where in Fedor’s first 34 wins, 50% were break and run....that’s incredible.
Gorst’s 41 break and runs and 17 more runouts after Bergman’s unsuccessful breaks (total of 58) compared to Bergman’s 14 break and runs and 9 runouts after Gorst’s unsuccessful breaks (total of 23) tells the story of this match.

The only stat I don’t see that would be interesting would be the total number of balls made in the entire match by both players, after the break.
 
Based on what I saw on stream, I am going to be totally honest with you guys. I don't think anyone can handle Gorst in a race to 100, also the longer the race the more difficult he will be.

For exmaple if Gorst plays anyone a race to 200 which is nuts, I firmly believe that the opponents have zero chance to win, doesn't matter who it is. Shane or Dennis or Filler all of them can get 30 games and still lose.

The reason reason for this is his ability to jump balls with accurecy, and his break which works everytime!

Guys I am about to start a new thread about the jump shot + the break in our game, I did mention this before but I want to mention it again! in pool if you want to fix the game the BREAK SHOT must be redesigned, it is really horrible stat if we're in position where a break can determine the winner, its very very bad for the game, and the jump shot must be banned completely! it ruins the game too.

In high level of pool the break is so ridiculous, I mean in short races it can flip-flop results and anyone can help regardless of skill, and in long races we saw what happens in gorst vs bergman, I mean bergman up to day2 did not miss many balls, probably he missed the same amount as gorst! yet he was down 20 games. If you think of this you can see how the break shot is a ridiculous shot! lets find a solution to fix pool, the break to me is a stupid shot, sorry.
 
Break-and-run packages
Gorst's 41 B&R games consisted of 1 5-pack, 1 4-pack, 11 2-packs, and 10 singles

Bergman's 14 B&R games consisted of 1 4-pack, 3 2-packs, and 4 singles

These are interesting numbers, given how often we hear commentators go to the cliché that if a player wins a game, he/she might "run out the set" (when they are playing winner-breaks). Pro players certainly break and run a lot, but this was within an incredibly long set. In a shorter set, like a race to 7 or 9, the chances of someone running though five racks is tiny. Does it happen? Yes. But often? No. Will announcers keep saying that it might happen? Yes. Will we see someone come back from 4-8 down to win 9-8 with a five-pack? Damn seldom.

If we had all wagered on how many times one of these players would put down a stretch of 4+ break and run packages in a race to 100, I think the over/under would have been higher than the actual results of only three times.
 
These are interesting numbers, given how often we hear commentators go to the cliché that if a player wins a game, he/she might "run out the set" (when they are playing winner-breaks). Pro players certainly break and run a lot, but this was within an incredibly long set. In a shorter set, like a race to 7 or 9, the chances of someone running though five racks is tiny. Does it happen? Yes. But often? No. Will announcers keep saying that it might happen? Yes. Will we see someone come back from 4-8 down to win 9-8 with a five-pack? Damn seldom.

If we had all wagered on how many times one of these players would put down a stretch of 4+ break and run packages in a race to 100, I think the over/under would have been higher than the actual results of only three times.

This is a good point. I also often hear people talking about pool grades, A+, A, B, etc, where the A+ (or Open, or AAA or whatever scale is being used) are people who consistently break and run multiple racks. I guess "two" is a multiple, and "consistently" is open to interpretation, but I've been watching a lot of matches recently and it's still notable when a top player does two or three in a row, especially, as you noted, in a shorter set. More racks in a row than three is an event.

Taking Gorst's 42% bnr percentage, he will run 5 in a row just 1.3% of the time. So if the tippy-top players in the world will run out a set from behind 8-4 in a race to nine only about 1% of the time, then I think "damn seldom" is a very apt description, especially for the rest of us.
 
based on the stats, they were pretty similar after the break, but the break really set Fedor apart. I don't think these stats directly show how Fedor was also better at controlling the 2 ball, too, so that his first shot after the break was generally better than Justin's.
 
These are interesting numbers, given how often we hear commentators go to the cliché that if a player wins a game, he/she might "run out the set" (when they are playing winner-breaks). Pro players certainly break and run a lot, but this was within an incredibly long set. In a shorter set, like a race to 7 or 9, the chances of someone running though five racks is tiny. Does it happen? Yes. But often? No. Will announcers keep saying that it might happen? Yes. Will we see someone come back from 4-8 down to win 9-8 with a five-pack? Damn seldom.

If we had all wagered on how many times one of these players would put down a stretch of 4+ break and run packages in a race to 100, I think the over/under would have been higher than the actual results of only three times.
Need to stop you there...you are letting facts get in the way of a good narrative...
 
I think it’s funny when people say the game is to easy for the pros but yet Bergman who is a top player was only successful 20% of the time from the break. Which means his opponent was at least seeing the table 80% of the time
 
Thanks for these wonderful stats, which evidence just how phenomenal Fedor's performance was in this matchup.
 
Thx for the stats.

One I lived by in match play, and it fits with Ghosts numbers.

You don't ever want to Miss more than TWICE in a race to 11 to win.

This BELOW stat ''stuck out''.

Run-outs from first shot after Gorst's break:
Gorst -- 41 of 76 (54%)

During Archers Prime years he was about 26%, but never racked his own.

IMO....
To get the real numbers, there should be a neutral racker.
 
... This BELOW stat ''stuck out''.

Run-outs from first shot after Gorst's break:
Gorst -- 41 of 76 (54%)

During Archers Prime years he was about 26%, but never racked his own. ...
Bill, that 54% figure for Gorst was runouts after he made a successful break. For runouts on all of his breaks, it was 42% (shown up higher in the stats post). When you say Archer was at about 26%, was it based on all of his breaks (that would be my guess) or just on his successful breaks?
 
Breaker won game:
Gorst -- 59 of 98 (60%)​
Bergman -- 31 of 71 (44%)​
Total -- 90 of 169 (53%)​
Thanks AtLarge
The key stat is BW (Break Win) not B&R. Because the player with higher BW always wins whereas the player with higher B&R wins most of time but not always.

The elite players regularly shoot around 65% BW when they win. Gorst did not this match
Filler 64% v Aranas
SVB 68% v Shaw 65%
Shaw 70% v Woodward
Chang JL 67% v SVB
SVB 66% v Orcollo (2019)
SVB v Orcollo 66% (2020)
Gorst 70% v De Luna
 
Thanks AtLarge
The key stat is BW (Break Win) not B&R. Because the player with higher BW always wins whereas the player with higher B&R wins most of time but not always.

The elite players regularly shoot around 65% BW when they win. Gorst did not this match
Filler 64% v Aranas
SVB 68% v Shaw 65%
Shaw 70% v Woodward
Chang JL 67% v SVB
SVB 66% v Orcollo (2019)
SVB v Orcollo 66% (2020)
Gorst 70% v De Luna
Interesting.

Thanks for your post.

Ken
 
Bill, that 54% figure for Gorst was runouts after he made a successful break. For runouts on all of his breaks, it was 42% (shown up higher in the stats post). When you say Archer was at about 26%, was it based on all of his breaks (that would be my guess) or just on his successful breaks?
I remember reading that and it caught my eye.

That term successful break is somewhat vague to me.

To me a successful break means, you make a ball and can see the ball your shooting next.

When J.A. broke he made a ball and ran out 26% of the time.
 
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I remember reading that and it caught my eye.

That term successful break is somewhat vague to me.

To me a successful break means, you make a ball and can see the ball your shooting next.

When J.A. broke he made a ball and ran out 26% of the time.
In my stats, a successful break is simply one that leaves the breaker at the table for the next shot after the break. He made at least one ball, didn't foul, and satisfied any other breaking requirements being used (such as the 3-point break rule). He may be hooked and have to push out or kick or jump, but if he continues at the table after the break I call it a successful break.

In this event Gorst broke 98 times, remained at the table 76 times, and ran out 41 times. So his B&R percentage on all breaks was 42% (41/98)and his B&R percentage on successful breaks was 54% (41/76).
 
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