Here's another 2 pennies on long races...
The players like the longer format because of the mindset that "the better player will win". This is absolutely true, but how long is long enough?
For you math dorks that are familiar with statistics and probability, it goes liek this:
If Player A has a 55% chance of winning (no, this is not the start of a joke) and Player B has a 45% chance of winning...you would need approximately 27-28 games for Player A to have a 95% probability of winning. Statistically speaking, in a race to 30, Player A should win 9 outta 10 times.
Obviously, the odds change if the players are closer matched than 45/55.
The bottom line is that the race to 100 is overkill. If I had to guess, I would say that a race to 50 or 60 over two days is more than enough.
Eric
The players like the longer format because of the mindset that "the better player will win". This is absolutely true, but how long is long enough?
For you math dorks that are familiar with statistics and probability, it goes liek this:
If Player A has a 55% chance of winning (no, this is not the start of a joke) and Player B has a 45% chance of winning...you would need approximately 27-28 games for Player A to have a 95% probability of winning. Statistically speaking, in a race to 30, Player A should win 9 outta 10 times.
Obviously, the odds change if the players are closer matched than 45/55.
The bottom line is that the race to 100 is overkill. If I had to guess, I would say that a race to 50 or 60 over two days is more than enough.
Eric