The bottom line is, if you don't hit the 2 you lose, so the bottom rail first kick 1 rail or possibly 2 if you skim the side rail, gives you the best chance of not giving him ball in hand , I think going bottom rail, long rail head rail to go around the stripe and possibly make the 2 or get safe is possible, but extremely difficult. On the other hand, with the first shot , you could hit it great and still sell out an easy out, so I may just put all my eggs in the 3 rail kick basket , at least if I hit it , I am a favorite to win from a dead in the water ,position.
I grew up playing an old guy who for 20 years , every time I left him like this ,he would say thank you for giving me an opportunity to shoot this great shot, About 90 % of the time he made a fantastic shot and I lost. I never appreciated the thought process behind it at the time, he just pissed me off , but it is genius!. I finally beat him out of 100 dollars one day , about .01 % of what I had lost to him 25 50 or so at a time over a 20 year span, Before I could get out of the poolroom with it , a guy walked in and he asked me to borrow the hundred back to play the guy, he would pay me next time he saw me. I didn't want to , but I gave it to him and the next time I see him he paid me the hundred ,I asked how he did ,he said I won 300, went to the track and he didn't say how much but I think it was quite a bit, he always bet those really crazy odds trifectas and he seldom won, but when he did , it was a nice chunk. He didn't even give me a 10 dollar pork chop, Plus when I asked him to play again, he said , oh no , your too good now. lol. After that he was my new bestest friend, he gave me a tip on a guy, then asked if he could borrow 10 dollars, a couple times later it's borrow 20, finally he says , my credits good with you, right, can I get 200 , my rents due. I said Don , we both know this ends with me getting stuck, lets just leave it all right here, he chuckled and went over to shmooze another guy. RIP buddy.