Latest activity

Latest activity

 Social Media Forum list

Mathematical analysis of Predator format (sets)

S
tomker said:
Out of curiosity, I wrote a program that enumerates all possible outcomes of a Predator Pro Billiards Series match and collected some stats that I thought might be interesting to people.

Assuming:
- Player A is rated 50 Fargo points higher than Player B (odds of him winning any particular rack: 58.58%)
- The odds of Player A winning a shootout are the same as his odds of winning a rack

Here are the stats I've calculated:
- The odds of Player A winning a Predator match against player B: 76.12%
- The odds of Player A winning the match but NOT winning more racks: 3.07%
- The odds of the match going to a shootout: 7.25%
- The odds of Player A winning 9 racks but losing the match: 5.17%
- The average number of racks played for a Predator match between these two players: 13.93

Ultimately, the odds of player A winning such a match are the same as if the players just played a regular race-to-9 match.

Disclaimer: I'm not trying to say that either format is better, I just wanted to have a better understanding of how the formats compare to each other.
Click to expand...
The pressure gradients - which probably don't affect math, will be different than in a straight ahead set. (people are dumm)
Also the numbers don't add the same as in a straight ahead set.
Lastly, I have no idea if I'm talking nonsense or not.
Click to expand...

Mathematical analysis of Predator format (sets)

S
tomker said:
Mathematically, the way Fargo ratings are calculated, the difference is the same.

I think the difference you're seeing is that, at very high ratings, both players have high likelihood of a clearance. So the difference for any given rack is harder to notice. You probably have to zoom out to the match level to see the same difference that you see for lower-rated players. But, ultimately, the difference is the same.
Click to expand...

could there be fargo creep at the top? is filler that much better than some year ago when he was at 825? i have no doubt filler is a better player than pecelj/kledio/chang, i'm just saying few people would set the odds for pecelj at 5.3 (that's euro odds, so 5.3x the money) whereas at the other example it seems like reasonable odds
Click to expand...

2026 WPA Predator Men's World 10 Ball Saigon

S
GideonF said:
I spoke too soon. They are having break problems, at least Pia is.
Click to expand...

anyway, pia won. i have always underestimated pia and kristina. i never thought they could contend with the top asians. pia was in the mid-600 range for a long time, and kristina looked like she would never develop a good break (because her physics / leverage). the last couple of years they have both proved me wrong.
Click to expand...

Looking for a Gus Szamboti shaft or shafts

MoNkEyNuTz
Hello all. We are looking for a spare Gus shaft for one of our cues. It is a Gus with the stainless, piloted 5/16-14 joint. The collars are black-blue-black stitch ring (8X). A shaft that matches our collars would be great but not needed. It would be preferred if the shaft was 12.25 or 12.5 tops in diameter, i@#$y ferrule, tip doesn't matter.
Look forward to hearing back from someone.
Click to expand...

Looking for a Gus Szamboti shaft or shafts

MoNkEyNuTz
Hello all. We are looking for a spare Gus shaft for one of our cues. It is a Gus with the stainless, piloted 5/16-14 joint. The collars are black-blue-black stitch ring (8X). A shaft that matches our collars would be great but not needed. It would be preferred if the shaft was 12.25 or 12.5 tops in diameter, i@#$y ferrule, tip doesn't matter.
Look forward to hearing back from someone.
Click to expand...

Mathematical analysis of Predator format (sets)

I
This reminds me of poker solvers. People can get really in the weeds with this stuff. Nerd Fodder more than anything. That's not meant to be an insult at all, more just to say that these numbers are not particularly predictive/reliable in ONE MATCH or even ONE EVENT. Over the course of 1000 matches or 100 events I'm sure the number bare out to some degree and are reliable but if you were to try to use them to bet individual matches, I Believe you'd have some rude awakenings.
Click to expand...

2026 WPA Predator Men's World 10 Ball Saigon

S
AtLarge said:
Well, tight tables would be at least part of the reason. Successful breaks in recent Predator 10-Ball events have generally been somewhere around 50%, plus or minus a bit. Years ago in 10-Ball events, with larger pockets, the percentage tended to be a bit higher. Of course, lots of factors other than pocket size can have an effect.

On the same table where the Shaw/SVB match produced a 21% success rate (6 of 28) on Thursday, the E. Kaçi/Duong match produced an 88% (14 of 16) rate on Wednesday.
Click to expand...

what was fran vs mario break success? i know it's ref dependent but imo kaci, mario and fsr have showed that those that have a power break should break head on
Click to expand...

Fargo Rate Manipulation Pro Tips

M
no but say a 700 player with a 600 rating can keep a 600 rating by winning much closer to others and have his 600 rating forever.
plus in tiny or league play where no money is really involved he can even have losers.

its still cheating the system and wrong of course. it can be done and is being done. that is why few true rated players take down the big money ones.
Click to expand...

2026 WPA Predator Men's World 10 Ball Saigon

GideonF
AtLarge said:
I try to note who is refereeing each match, but sometimes I don't know the names and don't list the refs in my stats thread for that event.

I don't think the ref who handled the Shaw/SVB match yesterday has been on any of the other matches I have tracked so far in this event.
Click to expand...

He’s doing the Pia vs Rita match right now. They are making balls but it’s 9b
Click to expand...

Fargo Rate Manipulation Pro Tips

Coos Cues
GideonF said:
This is true and a bit harder to catch. But if a 600 player is consistently beating 400s by like 9-7, an astute TD will notice something is wrong. The occasional result like that can happen, but you’d expect a lot of 9-2 type scores with that skill gap.
Click to expand...
Unless you have played the game for so long that you just don't care unless something that matters is on the line. League play doesn't matter one bit.
Click to expand...

Fargo Rate Manipulation Pro Tips

Coos Cues
maha said:
they dont have to dump just simply always play way below their best speed in all fargo rated events. then shoot better when the cash is bigger.
Click to expand...
It's called being interested or being in the mood to beat balls around like a chimpanzee. At this point in my life I could care less whether I win or lose a rack of pool being played for "fun". Once you accept that you are never going to improve your game to the next level your priorities change. No pride? Call it whatever but losing a game of pool has zero effect on me. Particularly to people who wouldn't gamble with you in a million years.
Click to expand...
Load more

Filter

Back
Top