Odds On Beating the 15-ball Ghost?

Johnnyt

Johnnyt

Burn all jump cues
Silver Member
OK you odds makers. What would you think the odds should be on a top tier pro beating the 15-ball ghost 1 out of 10 tries on a 7-foot barbox:eek:? I know I'm not even close to playing like a pro, but I tried it five times and couldn't come close. I have run 15-ball rotation on a bucket pocket old Brunswick probably 20 times in 3 years...and that was 35-40 years ago when I played pretty good on a 9-foot. Also slop counted as long as you hit the lowest ball first. Johnnyt
 
I'ld say it's a lock...

that a pro could beat that ghosty one out of 10 tries on a big table, maybe one out of 5 on a BB.

td
 
grindz said:
that a pro could beat that ghosty one out of 10 tries on a big table, maybe one out of 5 on a BB.

td
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I don't think so. I would risk a few hundred that he/she doesn't do it in 5 tries.

Me thinks a bar box is harder for this than a 9-footer. Johnnyt
 
I think I heard somewhere that Efren does/used to practice with the 15 ball ghost, and did pretty well against it IIRC. As to the BB, you have a lot of caroms/combos as well as banks, etc. that are much easier also, and once you get past the first 5 balls.... you're out. JMO

I'll have to give it a try next time I'm on a box.

td
 
My guess is that a top pro will beat the fifteen ball ghost on a big table with medium tight pockets between 25% and 30% of the time.
 
When you say 1 out of 10, do you mean would they win 1 out of 10 sets against the 15 ball ghost? If so, I think it would be a lock for a top pro. I remember seeing Rodney Morris just warming up by just throwing all 15 balls out and running at least 2 racks in a row that I saw, granted the pockets were big but he did it so effortlessly. I wonder how many pros besides the filipinos practice that way? I know if I was an aspiring pro I'd make that a big part of my practice regimen.
 
Bobby said:
When you say 1 out of 10, do you mean would they win 1 out of 10 sets against the 15 ball ghost? If so, I think it would be a lock for a top pro. I remember seeing Rodney Morris just warming up by just throwing all 15 balls out and running at least 2 racks in a row that I saw, granted the pockets were big but he did it so effortlessly. I wonder how many pros besides the filipinos practice that way? I know if I was an aspiring pro I'd make that a big part of my practice regimen.
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I out of 10 tries on a barbox. Rack 15, shoot in rotation, if you miss, thats 1 try. Johnnyt
 
Johnnyt said:
I out of 10 tries on a barbox. Rack 15, shoot in rotation, if you miss, thats 1 try. Johnnyt
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Oh a barbox might be tougher. But do you mean they just have to run one rack out of 10? Because I think they would still be a near lock to do it, even for a shortstop it's probably a fair bet.
 
I think a pro could definitely do it 1 out of 10 times on a big table. I am not even close to that level and I've done it close to 1 out of 15-20 tries on my 8 ft brunswick.

I also think the big table is a much better option than the clusters that would happen on the barbox. Plus at the Pro level they can drop the cueball anywhere they want so less bunches makes it easier to navigate through the first 5 balls.

Plus with breaking and then taking BIH, the pro's are going to make a few balls on many of the breaks.

I'm even able to beat the 12-ball ghost about 20%.

Would make a fun challenge to stream. Possibly even some sort of tournament could come of this. Where you wager poker chips on runs. Thinking like "Name that tune". "I can beat the 12-ball ghost in 3 tries for 3 chips each!"
 
It's too bad we don't any pros left on here to ask if it's tougher on a bar box. If someone can do it on a bar box and could video it, that would be gret. I would if I could do it...but I can't. I have no reason to think a lot of players that aren't pros could do it on a 9-footer, but a bar box...I'd have to see it. Johnnyt
 
Johnnyt said:
It's too bad we don't any pros left on here to ask if it's tougher on a bar box. If someone can do it on a bar box and could video it, that would be gret. I would if I could do it...but I can't. I have no reason to think a lot of players that aren't pros could do it on a 9-footer, but a bar box...I'd have to see it. Johnnyt
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Johnny, even for a pro with all of their skills they would need a fair amount of luck to run the fifteen balls on the bar table. I used to practice this years ago and my percentage was very low. Maybe one of 20. Once you get past the first six or eight balls it's a big relief.
 
dabarbr said:
Johnny, even for a pro with all of their skills they would need a fair amount of luck to run the fifteen balls on the bar table. I used to practice this years ago and my percentage was very low. Maybe one of 20. Once you get past the first six or eight balls it's a big relief.
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That's how I look at it. I tried it 5 times and gave up. I made it to the 6 ball once. Just too many balls in the way. I'm going try it with 12-ball. I can beat the 9-ball more than half the time but 10-ball beats me more than I beat it. Just one extra ball makes a big difference on a BB. I couldn't believe it when I went from 9 to 10-ball. Johnnyt
 
It's an interesting question, I watched Mike Deschaine (semipro?) try 15 ball ghost on a full sized table recently and almost get out on his first try... got funny on the 14. He looked like he could get out 1 out of 5 tries on a full sized table easy. But it sounds like clusters are guaranteed on a bar box so without a monster break and a little luck you're screwed. If a player banks really strong I think it'd help, assuming a nice table with predictable fresh rails.
 
On a big table it would be no problem at all for a pro to make it 1 out of 5 let alone 1 out of 10. I could do it 1 out of 10 for sure and I'm no pro. On a bar box it would be considerably harder but I still think a top pro would do it.
 
> I think if we're talking about top-32 pro's here,it would be higher than many think. Keep in mind,Efren's warmup procedure is throwing out all 15 balls,and he keeps going until he runs 3 FULL racks. He's not breaking mind you,just running all 15,but still. I've seen Efren play up close at least 15 times,and he's done it every single time,in most cases he runs out 3 racks in his FIRST TRY.

Even with the so-called decline in his game in recent times,I'd bet he still does it. Guys like Ralf Souquet and Alex probably can do the same. Tommy D.
 
Tommy-D said:
> I think if we're talking about top-32 pro's here,it would be higher than many think. Keep in mind,Efren's warmup procedure is throwing out all 15 balls,and he keeps going until he runs 3 FULL racks. He's not breaking mind you,just running all 15,but still. I've seen Efren play up close at least 15 times,and he's done it every single time,in most cases he runs out 3 racks in his FIRST TRY.

Even with the so-called decline in his game in recent times,I'd bet he still does it. Guys like Ralf Souquet and Alex probably can do the same. Tommy D.
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Have you seen anyone do it on a bar box? I know it can be done on a 9-foot, but we're talking bar box here. Johnnyt
 
> I've never seen Efren hit a ball on a bar box,so no clue there. That would be some tough action for him,because of his underwhelming break. Tommy D.
 
Hmm... That's a tough one. I would guess 1-2 out 10 times would be done by the very top, but that's it.
 
I had a few minutes this morning before heading out with the family for the day. While the eggs were frying I played one rack. I broke and made the 13 ball. I probably could have played from where the white ball sat, but I moved it ahead 6 inches to be perfect for the start.

I was able to run the first 5 balls perfect and had to use other balls to stop whitey on most shots. After the 6 ball fell I only had one small break out which was pretty easy. I only had 1 difficult shot on the 12 ball as I didn't roll up enough after going 2 rails. I was happy to beat the 15-ball ghost in the 1st try. Put the cues away and took the family to the County Fair. :)

I would bet on any pro being able to do it 2 out of 10 times, well, maybe not "any" pro, but a few of them for sure.
 
stuckart said:
I had a few minutes this morning before heading out with the family for the day. While the eggs were frying I played one rack. I broke and made the 13 ball. I probably could have played from where the white ball sat, but I moved it ahead 6 inches to be perfect for the start.

I was able to run the first 5 balls perfect and had to use other balls to stop whitey on most shots. After the 6 ball fell I only had one small break out which was pretty easy. I only had 1 difficult shot on the 12 ball as I didn't roll up enough after going 2 rails. I was happy to beat the 15-ball ghost in the 1st try. Put the cues away and took the family to the County Fair. :)

I would bet on any pro being able to do it 2 out of 10 times, well, maybe not "any" pro, but a few of them for sure.
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ON a Bar Box?? I didn't see the word Bar Box? If you did it on a bar box I bow to you. Johnnyt
 
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