Odds On a Top Straight Pool Player Running 100 Balls

[Nostroke]

Nostroke,
Hey!!! No need to resort to vicious personal attacks, slandering the feeble wannabe's that entered (errr....like me....).

I will have to admit you make a good point though. It seems self-evident that the percentage of 100 ball runs must definitely depend on the skill of the player/players attempting the feat, the equipment on which they are attempting it, and the competitive circumstances.

My chances of a 100 ball run vary over time - depending on practice time, amount of money wagered, and type of equipment. My success rate currently is hovering right around 0%. I have been working diligently for 3 years hoping to improve the percentage somewhat.

P.S. - I did spend a day on the beach last week at Seaside (I'm assuming the same one referred to in your avatar) - if you live there, you are one lucky SOB. What a nice place.

You? Not for a minute was i thinking of you!:wink:


No my Avatar is just a picture of an old sand pail i found under the floor boards of an old house i used to rent. I thought it was just a generic Sea Side but you could be right. Anyway somehow i found out it might be worth something and i called up a sand pail expert and she said she'd give me 400 for it and it retailed for 600.

I figured she was a liar so i had someone take pics and put it on Ebay with a 400 dollar reserve and got NO bids.

Anyway, it was the only picture on my computer for the longest time-hence (thank you Patty) my Avatar.

 

[alstl]

With 4 1/2" pockets I think your odds are a little low. With 5" pockets 5-1 might be about right but that's just a guess.

 

[Steve Lipsky]

According to Danny Barouty, there was a period at the Golden Cue (Queens, NY) where Mr. Mizerak couldn't get an even-money bet he'd run 100 in a game to 150.

Keep in mind a few factors here:

- This is certainly not the same thing as starting with BIH and getting one chance to do it or not do it.

- Details can be forgotten over the years, such as caveats that Mr. Mizerak would be allowed to continue his last inning when the game was over. I'm not saying this was the case, I'm just saying it's possible. And of course this would be a game-changer in the bet.

- Even if the above point was not true, nothing would prevent Mr. Mizerak from taking 3-fouls over and over, to keep getting below the 50 point mark so he could give it another go.

- No idea what kind of equipment was being used for a game like this.

- Finally, just because he couldn't get the action doesn't mean he was a favorite. It just means, in a certain poolroom during a certain era, he couldn't find anyone to make the bet with him.

Anyway, Danny said Allen Hopkins should know more about what kinds of bets were being made around this time by the top 14.1 players, so someone (SpiderWeb?) might want to ask him.

Hope this helps,
Steve

 

[Bob Jewett]

We were talking in the poolroom the other day, and we were debating this handicapping question....

If a top straight pool player, like for example, John Schmidt or Thorsten Hohmann wants to bet he can step up to the table, let's say a gold crown with 4-1/2" pockets, start out with a standard 14.1 break shot and run 100 balls or more - what odds should he get to make it an even bet....I'm thinking the line might-should be about 5-1....whadda you guys think?

- Ghost

The first time he played in the DCC Straight Pool Challenge, Mika Immonen averaged 60 balls per attempt. His only year in the finals, Thomas Engert made 185 balls in two turns with one miss and one very unlikely kiss-scratch. Johnny Archer had 3 runs over 100 in 12 turns in the preliminaries one year.

But on average, the number of 100-ball runs is well down from that. Last time at the DCC, the lowest score in 12 turns for the top 8 finishers was 85, and the top 7 all had one 100-ball run or more in 12 turns.

Of course Diamonds generally play tougher than GCs.

Richie Florence used to bet on 10 tries to run 100. Danny Harriman will bet on an hour to run 100, but he can continue any run started within the hour. Cranfield may have been even money to run 100 from the break on his home table -- he was about 90% to clear each rack.

An article on the probabilities involved with high runs at 14.1 is available at: http://www.sfbilliards.com/articles/2006-06.pdf including a discussion of why pocket size can be such a large factor.

 

[Black-Balled]

According to ...

- ...nothing would prevent Mr. Mizerak from taking 3-fouls over and over, to keep getting below the 50 point mark so he could give it another go...

Hope this helps,
Steve

Damn skinny it helps! You durn 14.1ers...always givin' stuff out for free:wink:!!

 

[1 Pocket Ghost]

With all due respect....all that brought up the DCC runs as a determining factor, please read my original post...I stated this prop to be played out by a World Class Straight Pool player, on a Gold Crown, not a tougher Diamond table....and let me add - with clean, newish cloth and balls.


- Ghost

 

[Jude Rosenstock]

We were talking in the poolroom the other day, and we were debating this handicapping question....

If a top straight pool player, like for example, John Schmidt or Thorsten Hohmann wants to bet he can step up to the table, let's say a gold crown with 4-1/2" pockets, start out with a standard 14.1 break shot and run 100 balls or more - what odds should he get to make it an even bet....I'm thinking the line might-should be about 5-1....whadda you guys think?

- Ghost

It's very difficult to take tournament statistics and translate that into a proposition bet. Many players in competition will play safe at 99 if it meant securing victory but in a challenge such as this, they'll whack at anything to continue.

With that said, 4-1/2" pockets make this a very tough bet to gauge. No two 14.1 players are alike and individual style is going to be a huge determinant when creating odds. Some players rely on pocketing while others rely on position. The pocket-size is going to impact players differently.

We can look at this another way - Admittedly, this is crude statistics but let's say for the sake of argument that the odds were 5:1 which represents 16.7% of the time, a player will run 100 balls. That would also suggest that 16.7% of the time a player runs 100 balls, they will run 200 balls or 2.8% of the time. For many players, that would mean a 200 ball run would happen once every two months and a 300 ball run would happen .5%, possibly once a year. Once again, I'll admit these are crude stats but I don't think anybody maintains that pace.

I don't know where the threshold would lie for a player like Schmidt but I would be surprised if it were as low as 5:1.

 

[stuckart]

I remember John Schmidt mentioned once that he never leaves his house to go out to play a match or tournament without having run atleast 100 ball run or two first.

The Odd's all come down to how they are allowed to start the run.

If you are racking 14 and leaving a ball out of the rack with BIH, then getting close to even odds sounds about right 1:1 maybe 2:1.

If you are racking 15 balls, having an opponent do the standard break and leaving a dim light at 1 ball and not being able to break the stack, then it probably goes way up. All depends on the start, who is shooting the standard break, etc.

And we are talking about the top few players in the world who have run uncountable 100+ runs.

 

[Bob Jewett]

With all due respect....all that brought up the DCC runs as a determining factor, please read my original post...I stated this prop to be played out by a World Class Straight Pool player, on a Gold Crown, not a tougher Diamond table....and let me add - with clean, newish cloth and balls.


- Ghost

I think Babe was probably playing on a Gold Crown, as was Richie, probably. So, if you accept the previously mentioned chances and that Richie was offering a fair bet, you get somewhere between 1 in 2 and 1 in 14, with 1 in 2 (even money) being very, very unlikely -- there aren't many like Cranfield. I think your original guess of 1 in 6 is just a touch too stingy, but not by much -- I'd go with 1 in 5.

 

[1 Pocket Ghost]

I think your original guess of 1 in 6 is just a touch too stingy, but not by much -- I'd go with 1 in 5.

Interesting Bob, how our guesstimates are about the same - and more so, because before I finalized my post, I was trying to decide between 4-1 and 5-1 for my choice of even odds.


- Ghost

 

[Alex Kanapilly]

I haven't read every post yet but wanted to share a few thoughts on this.

Way back in like 1989 or so at the grand opening of Muddler's pool hall in Chicago, Dallas West put on an exhibition with Mark Karabotsas (not sure if I spelled that right). He made a shot in his first inning after Mark broke and ran like 20 something balls then missed an easy one, his face got really red and he looked really embarassed. The next time he got up to the table he ran over 100 and out. He kept shooting until he missed which was around 120 something. I dont' remember the exact numbers but I think the game was to 125. It looked awfully easy to me.

Around that same time I tried to play a local player by the name of John Zaksas (very strong player but not an elite straight pool player like Dallas West). He bet me that I couldn't make 5 banks before he ran 100 (I know... I was a newbie and a sucker), he ran 100 and out on me the first time he got a shot.

In college I made a road trip over to Purdue (from U of Illinois) to watch my (future) wife play in the finals of the women's big 10 championships. It was held in their student union pool hall. At the time, there was a little "shrine" to Nick Varner set up telling all about his time at the University. One of the things I remember about that was that Varner would not leave the student union pool hall until he ran 100. It could take an hour or it could take all day but he wouldn't leave until he did it.

Based on my very limited experiences with straight pool and what I've seen, I wouldn't bet against an elite straight pool player (say, Schmidt, Harriman or one of the Euro guys) running 100 given 5 tries.

 

[smashmouth]

based on the following, ball in hand, decent break shot, decent size pockets, and a familiar table

I'd go as low as 50/50

 

[Nostroke]

I haven't read every post yet but wanted to share a few thoughts on this.

Way back in like 1989 or so at the grand opening of Muddler's pool hall in Chicago, Dallas West put on an exhibition with Mark Karabotsas (not sure if I spelled that right). He made a shot in his first inning after Mark broke and ran like 20 something balls then missed an easy one, his face got really red and he looked really embarassed. The next time he got up to the table he ran over 100 and out. He kept shooting until he missed which was around 120 something. I dont' remember the exact numbers but I think the game was to 125. It looked awfully easy to me.

Around that same time I tried to play a local player by the name of John Zaksas (very strong player but not an elite straight pool player like Dallas West). He bet me that I couldn't make 5 banks before he ran 100 (I know... I was a newbie and a sucker), he ran 100 and out on me the first time he got a shot.

In college I made a road trip over to Purdue (from U of Illinois) to watch my (future) wife play in the finals of the women's big 10 championships. It was held in their student union pool hall. At the time, there was a little "shrine" to Nick Varner set up telling all about his time at the University. One of the things I remember about that was that Varner would not leave the student union pool hall until he ran 100. It could take an hour or it could take all day but he wouldn't leave until he did it.

Based on my very limited experiences with straight pool and what I've seen, I wouldn't bet against an elite straight pool player (say, Schmidt, Harriman or one of the Euro guys) running 100 given 5 tries.

I just learned that Nick Varner went to and presumably was graduated from Purdue!! Damn Nick, I thought you were just an old country farmer.

I knew he won the Collegiate pool Championships 2 years running (Max E may have been the only other to do that) but from Purdue, wow-That might be more impressive. Any college back then made you work your butt off.

 

[Williebetmore]

I just learned that Nick Varner went to and presumably was graduated from Purdue!! Damn Nick, I thought you were just an old country farmer.

I knew he won the Collegiate pool Championships 2 years running (Max E may have been the only other to do that) but from Purdue, wow-That might be more impressive. Any college back then made you work your butt off.

NS,
Nick was at Purdue when I was at IU, I got to see him play ACU tournaments many times (I played on the bridge team, competitions held concurrently). He was like a man among boys.

Being too lazy to look it up, I think our own Bob Jewett won an ACU title, and I thought Lars Vardeman (?spelling?) won THREE ACU titles in a row - he lurks here but rarely posts.