Holland's shot on 6 and 8 in World Cup final rack

just re-watched it and stand by the above

both force follow and jacked up draw on that position were super tough, but on the follow since no pocket cheating was required it could have been a straight shot to the pocket centre, no english, and with no cue jacking....i think..... and the cue ball could have ended close enough to the nine for safety

i think with more time, he would have played safe on the 8

i really like call shot/call safety at this level
 
JC said:
He could have cinched the ball and left a cut shot down the rail that his partner could have made about 90% of the time as the nine was off the rail about a chalk width. He never considered this option as witnessed by his lack of going over there and looking at what the nine would look like from leaving the cue ball over there. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't that bad.
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I'm sure Neil considered the option. Cinching that ball probably leaves Nick shooting from off the short rail. I doubt Nick is 90% on that shot.

Even hitting it as hard as he did, Neils didn't get it especially far off the rail.

Anyway, Karl got unbelievably lucky on that 8 ball miss.
 
smashmouth said:
i think with more time, he would have played safe on the 8
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How on earth do you play safe on the 8 from that position with any certainty?

The general rule of thumb is, if the safety is as hard as the shot, go for the shot.
 
iusedtoberich said:
Interestingly, this layout is very similar to the "Blew BIH on 3 balls/WWYD" layout" discussion we had a few weeks ago. Many of the concepts discussed in that thread are applicable to the layout of this thread.

http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=373115
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Which is why I have nothing constructive to add to this discussion. :eek:

Watching it in real time, I thot the 8 looked frozen after Karl's miss. If frozen, it seemed like the right shot to kick hard and hope to get lucky.

Tough way to end it.
 
shinobi said:
I'm sure Neil considered the option. Cinching that ball probably leaves Nick shooting from off the short rail. I doubt Nick is 90% on that shot.

Even hitting it as hard as he did, Neils didn't get it especially far off the rail.

Anyway, Karl got unbelievably lucky on that 8 ball miss.
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I set this up and shot it a bunch today and at about half the speed Niels shot it I got the cue ball back to the rail the nine ball was on about half the time and made the shot. I'm a B player and sitting here in my office obviously cannot replicate the situation. I also cinched the shot and rolled straight out from the 8 about a foot and made the nine ball down the rail about half the time. Again, I'm a B player.

This was classic panic fight or flight to pound the shot like that. Niels would not do this unless under extreme duress like he was. It's the same way cops empty their guns and miss the perp completely from 10 yards away.

I am in no way denigrating the unbelievable skills of these players, just observing what occurred.

JC
 
Just watched it back and I agree that Niels' leave for Nick from 6 to 7 was ok - I don't understand the argument that simply because he had time to study the leave the stopshot was the wrong shot.

In my opinion, Nick got the pace good when making the 7 but his line was too cautious, probably through being conscious of not leaving the 8 too thin and not wanting to scratch if his pace was wrong. If he plays the shot at 2-2 instead of hill-hill I think he gets it right. I did question if in fact his pace was bad and the line was perfect, meaning he was trying to go to a third rail to fall low on the 8 but I can't see the natural path to the 9 without shooting up the rail.

As for the 8 - tough to know for sure isn't it but given the camera angle there does appear to be a case for force following and using the spin to check it off of the second rail for position on the 9.
 
JC said:
I set this up and shot it a bunch today and at about half the speed Niels shot it I got the cue ball back to the rail the nine ball was on about half the time and made the shot. I'm a B player and sitting here in my office obviously cannot replicate the situation. I also cinched the shot and rolled straight out from the 8 about a foot and made the nine ball down the rail about half the time. Again, I'm a B player.

This was classic panic fight or flight to pound the shot like that. Niels would not do this unless under extreme duress like he was. It's the same way cops empty their guns and miss the perp completely from 10 yards away.

I am in no way denigrating the unbelievable skills of these players, just observing what occurred.

JC
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Your fight flight element is a good observation and definitely has merit. I always heard from pros on commentary and instructors, when given the option, its easier to roll forward because cue ball has the momentum already. When going to draw, you are adding a difficulty level to the shot. While watching live, my go-to instinct was force follow. Iwas very surprised world champion niels didnt have same instinct. So your fight or flight theory definitely could cause the reaction to just fire away.

Over last few years, ive drilled into my head, when given choice of shot, follow off rail for position. Its automatic thinking now. And I thought I read a stat on here recently, from a tournament, when player given ball in hand, and chose to follow or play off rail, ran out the most. The lowest percentage of success were those players who chose draw.

Any confirmation on this stat?
 
I think that the position on the 7-ball was just fine; Nick's shot took a line that went too close to the rail. I think that Neil played the 8 exactly right except that he slightly misjudged the deflection of putting right English and hit it too full. He didn't hit it too hard considering he had 2 rail to kill the cue-ball. Cinching it and leaving it would have left a knee-knocking cut shot; force follow would have accomplished nothing productive.
 
Better link. Just last rack there
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hjwMvtNbA04
Van Den Berg made poor position shot and Niels missed jacked up shot. Both made errors and that cost to em.

I think Niels did shoot right shot. World champion have to be able jack up and make the ball.
He just were under tremendous pressure because they cracked last year also.
Pressure normally affects first to your back hand. If you need to hit medium/hard you easily hammer it too hard.
 
To me it looks as if Neils could have played the 8 with lots of top left and spun the cueball two rails to the short side of the 9 for the slightly longer shot into the upper right pocket.

Fairly easy shot, even for me and much easier than a jacked up punched draw shot on those tight pockets!
 
eastcoast_chris said:
To me it looks as if Neils could have played the 8 with lots of top left and spun the cueball two rails to the short side of the 9 for the slightly longer shot into the upper right pocket.

Fairly easy shot, even for me and much easier than a jacked up punched draw shot on those tight pockets!
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To be fair, I don't think the shot he played was all that tough either - definitely missable, but one you'd expect him to make. In that situation, though, in that match and under that pressure, almost anything is missable.

I didn't think his shot selection was all that bad, I didn't think Nick's was either. I just think at that point of a match mistakes are easily made. Both teams made one in the final few shots. England got away with theirs and the Netherlands didn't. Sometimes that's just how things roll.
 
True, Niels took a lot of time before shooting a straight in six ball. I didn't get it, it was relatively easy for Nick to get position from the seven to the eight. That delay may have affected Nick to a certain degree and the position he got for Niels on the eight was definitely not ideal.

Niels tried to shoot a shot to get Nick as close to the nine as possible. I think he knew that Nick might miss a tough shot. Jacking up like that and shooting a draw shot into a tight pocket is never a bargain. Niels is still a favorite to execute the shot properly. He didn't this time but I don't think he dogged it, he just missed. Niels rarely dogs a ball and he isn't afraid to shoot a tough shot if need be. He just judged this shot a little bit wrong and that was enough.

Karl's shot at the eight was no bargain either, especially after the miss by Niels. It was not easy to make the shot and get position on the nine ball. Again I don't think he dogged it either, he just missed as well. Nick's kick shot on the eight could have been hit a lot better. What he wanted to do there was hit the eight into the nine, where it had a chance to go into the side pocket. Also a tough kick shot but from where he was he should have hit it better imo. Hit it hard and get that nine ball moving was the key!
 
jay helfert said:
True, Niels took a lot of time before shooting a straight in six ball. I didn't get it, it was relatively easy for Nick to get position from the seven to the eight. That delay may have affected Nick to a certain degree and the position he got for Niels on the eight was definitely not ideal.

Niels tried to shoot a shot to get Nick as close to the nine as possible. I think he knew that Nick might miss a tough shot. Jacking up like that and shooting a draw shot into a tight pocket is never a bargain. Niels is still a favorite to execute the shot properly. He didn't this time but I don't think he dogged it, he just missed. Niels rarely dogs a ball and he isn't afraid to shoot a tough shot if need be. He just judged this shot a little bit wrong and that was enough.

Karl's shot at the eight was no bargain either, especially after the miss by Niels. It was not easy to make the shot and get position on the nine ball. Again I don't think he dogged it either, he just missed as well. Nick's kick shot on the eight could have been hit a lot better. What he wanted to do there was hit the eight into the nine, where it had a chance to go into the side pocket. Also a tough kick shot but from where he was he should have hit it better imo. Hit it hard and get that nine ball moving was the key!
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As always, Jay, your insight is greatly appreciated and a value to the discussion. Can elaborate on the possibility of a force follow off the eight to bring it back for a shot on the nine? Niels didn't mention this in his Facebook statement, so I assumed he judged that it wasn't a possibility. What's your take?
 
Cardigan Kid said:
As always, Jay, your insight is greatly appreciated and a value to the discussion. Can elaborate on the possibility of a force follow off the eight to bring it back for a shot on the nine? Niels didn't mention this in his Facebook statement, so I assumed he judged that it wasn't a possibility. What's your take?
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He would have left Nick a difficult cut shot on the nine if he went this way. Again, I don't think he wanted Nick to have shoot a tough shot here so he opted to shoot the tough shot himself.
 
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BRussell said:
What's the difference?
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Dogging it usually reflects a poor attempt to make the ball, i.e. a weak stroke or a rushed shot. On the other hand you can hit a ball good and still miss it. Niels went for the shot all the way. He set up on it good and didn't hit it weak. And yes he missed it anyway. Like I said, it was a tough shot to execute. To make that particular shot you must hit it perfectly! There was no room for error there.
 
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jay helfert said:
Dogging it usually reflects a poor attempt to make the ball, i.e. a weak stroke or a rushed shot. On the other hand you can hit a ball good and still miss it. Niels went for the shot all the way. He set up on it good and didn't hit it weak. And yes he missed it anyway. Like I said, it was a tough shot to execute. To make that particular shot you must hit it perfectly! There was no room for error there.
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Could not have been said any better
 
jay helfert said:
True, Niels took a lot of time before shooting a straight in six ball. I didn't get it, it was relatively easy for Nick to get position from the seven to the eight. That delay may have affected Nick to a certain degree and the position he got for Niels on the eight was definitely not ideal.
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Yes that was the turning point of the decaying orbit that led to the loss. If Niels would have just shot the 6 ball in leaving the cue ball almost anywhere around there it would have probably just flowed out.

Instead he wasted his extension to accomplish nothing. If he would have had his extension available on the 8 ball I believe it would have ended differently, even if the cue ball was exactly where it was. Instead of panicking he probably would have taken a deep breath and executed the shot.

JC
 
PoolBum said:
I actually thought the shape on the 7 was ok. I thought Nick just over-cooked it shooting the 7 and so ended up too close to the cushion and too straight on the 8, leaving Niels a tough jacked-up draw shot on the 8 (he may have even had to try and cheat the pocket on that shot as well, not sure). I'd have to be at the table to see what the angle on the 7 really was though, to decide whether it was too straight for easy shape on the 8.

Of course, Boyes missed a very makeable 8 right after that and, but for an extremely fortunate roll, I think we'd be talking about Holland as the champs right now instead of England.
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I agree, he had an angle to come up for the 7. He played the wrong angle/speed and left Neils a little tough. Another thing is Neils didn't have to jack up on the 8. He could have stroked it with a little high left and come 3 rails below the 9.
 
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